The 2024 PGA Tour season has been dominated by two very different storylines.

For the first couple months of the campaign, it was all about the long shots.

Recently, though, it’s been all about Scottie Scheffler.

Fortunately for punters, this week can’t be about Scheffler as the World No. 1 is skipping the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch.

That should open the door for some long shots to break through at a course that is very beatable. 

Jordan Spieth (+1400) is the lukewarm betting favorite, just ahead of defending champion Jason Day (+1800), but those two are the only players currently listed under +2000.

Si Woo Kim (+2200), Will Zalatoris (+2200), Sungjae Im (+2500), Adam Scott (+2500), and Alex Noren (+2500) are the other players at the top of a very gettable board at TPC Craig Ranch.

A weak field playing on an easy course should give plenty of long shots a fighting chance on the PGA Tour this week. Here are two of my favorites: 

CJ Cup Byron Nelson long shot predictions

C.T. Pan (100/1, BetMGM)

You’ll see a lot of talk about this being a long course that favors distance — both are valid points — but that doesn’t mean we can’t see a shorter, more clinical player like C.T. Pan make a charge at TPC Craig Ranch.

Pan showed that last year when he finished in fourth at the Byron Nelson and was just two strokes off the winner.

It’s always going to be helpful to bomb the ball off the tee at a track like this, but the rest of Pan’s game has proven to suit TPC Craig Ranch, and we know he can get hot enough with his putter to win in a field like this. 

Robert MacIntyre (125/1, Caesars)

There are plenty of ways to try and find value in golf betting (which is one of the reasons why so many people love to do it), and in a setup like this — a weak field and an easy course — I always try to buy low on talent.

That’s how I landed (once again) on Robert MacIntyre.

The affable Scotsman hasn’t found his footing yet in 2024, but that shouldn’t deter you from backing a player who has the length and short game to carve up this course.

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MacIntyre has won some big tournaments in Europe, he’s had some good showings at majors, and he came off a T8 at the team event in New Orleans last week.

This number is worth a sprinkle.