Giro d’Italia predictions

The hunt for the “Maglia Rosa” returns. The 107th Giro d’Italia marks the start of Grand Tour season – beginning in Turin on Saturday, May 4 and ending in Rome on Sunday, May 26. 

This year isn’t the most difficult edition but it still includes six mountain top finishes, two time trials totalling over 70km and a total of 3400km of racing over 21 stages. 

With the designed parcours offering slightly less climbing than in recent years, the organisers have enticed one of cycling’s biggest stars in UAE Team Emirates juggernaut Tadej Pogacar. Has a Grand Tour ever seen such an overwhelming favourite? The battle for the pink jersey already feels like a procession with the Slovenian a best-price of 2/7 on betting sites. 

All Pogacar needs is a bit of luck and he will take some beating. The big target for Pogacar this year is the Giro-Tour double and he would be the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 to achieve this feat. 

He started the year in blistering form – winning six out of 10 race days he’s participated in. Is there any doubt to Pogacar winning the pink jersey? Perhaps. 

Giro d’Italia betting tip: O’Connor a value outsider

The odd off day in previous Tour de France’s have shown that Pogacar is human after all and his constant urge to win every race has driven him into the red on rare occasions, shipping time dramatically on some of the toughest mountain stages. 

However, this Giro d’Italia does not include the likes of Jonas Vingegaard – who is the ultimate test to Pogacar’s resolve. It’s difficult to find a rider on the start-list who can go head-to-head with the Slovenian and after the hilly stage in Turin on day one, Pogacar could grace the pink jersey early.

Pogacar’s closest rival on betting apps is Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers). 

When Thomas won the Tour de France in 2018 it could not get any better for the Welshman. However, five years on, the gulf between Pogacar and now 37-year-old Thomas is growing. 

The last time the two faced off in a Grand Tour was in France in 2022 where Pogacar finished almost five minutes ahead. Even though Thomas finished runner up in last year’s Giro d’Italia, it is difficult to see how he will find the best form of his career to win this race. 

Former team-mate Daniel Martínez arrives as leader for BORA–hansgrohe and has shown glimpses of strong form – beating Remco Evenepoel in a couple of uphill finishes in Portugal earlier in February. He finished fifth at Giro d’Italia in 2021 and that was after helping Egan Bernal win the pink jersey, but will he handle the pressure as a leader and is he over a small knee niggle from March?

The potential is there to sneak a podium spot and the second half of the race includes several mountain top finishes which work in his favour, but the negatives may possibly outweigh the positives. 

Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team have started 2024 strongly with 12 victories from five different riders and arrive in Italy with two strong General Classification riders – Aurelien Paret-Peintre and Ben O’Connor. 

The Australian O’Connor was fourth back in the 2021 Tour de France and has started this year in fine style with two victories to his name in Spain and the UAE. 

Also, he was runner up in Tour of the Alps. The way to combat Pogacar is to race aggressively and these two riders seem to have built a strong connection in recent races. They’re unlikely to overwhelm Pogacar but O’Connor’s form is strong enough to creep onto the podium and we know from 2021 he is able to cope with three weeks of hard racing. 

Giro d’Italia tip 1: Ben O’Connor to win the Giro d’Italia – 25/1 each-way with SpreadEx

Giro d’Italia tip: Italian duo eye blue jersey

The General Classification isn’t the only competition up for grabs and the King of the Mountains is likely to be highly contested, especially between the Italian riders. 

As Pogacar should show his dominance over many stages, gambling sites have also made the Slovenian the outright favourite for the blue jersey. However, riders can gain many KOM points in breakaways. 

It’s no surprise that Italy has won the most “Maglia Azzurra” jerseys. However, an Italian winner has not been named since Giulio Ciccone in 2019. This could be the year that changes. 

Astana Qazaqstan Team arrive with Alexey Lutsenko as their leader but they will be interested in stage victories and breakaways too. Over hilly and mountain stages, their Italian duo of Lorenzo Fortunato and Christian Scaroni may well prove a tough double act when gaining KOM points, and both riders offer each-way value. 

Finally in the Points Classification, the “Maglia Ciclamino” is awaiting the sprinters in the peloton. 

Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step) and Olav Kooij (Team Visma Lease a Bike) are the hottest sprinters in this year’s competition but the fear is that both riders may not finish the race. Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) is the favourite with bookmakers as he chases a second successive purple jersey. However, he does face stiffer competition this year and his odds are short enough.

Giro d’Italia tip 2: Lorenzo Fortunato to be King of the Mountain – 33/1 each-way with Unibet

Giro d’Italia tip 3: Christian Scaroni to be King of the Mountain – 50/1 each-way with William Hill

Giro d’Italia free bets

There are free bets available for wagering on this year’s Giro d’Italia when you sign up with bookmakers online.

William Hill have the top price on one of our King of the Mountains tips and they are giving new customers £30 in free bets to wager on any event on their sportsbook. 

To take advantage, sign up using the link below and bet a minimum of £10 on a selection with odds of 1/2 or greater.

Once the qualifying bet is settled, you’ll be credited with the £30 in free bets. In addition to being able to bet on sports, customers can also enjoy a standalone William Hill Vegas product, featuring thousands of the best online slots.

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