Our man’s good run of form continued with Knicks winning at Chester – check out his final selection for this afternoon.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 175pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Wednesday May 8
1pt win Billy Webster in 1.30 Chester at 12/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Knicks in 2.35 Chester at 8/1 (bet365)
1pt win Beeley in 3.05 Chester at 12/1 (William Hill)
Billy the bet in Chester opener
How high do you dare to go? That’s the key question for punters when looking to get involved in the sprints at Chester this week as you’re clearly paying a hefty premium in the market in regards to anything drawn in the lower stalls.
Much like trying to gauge the shape of any race on any given racecourse, the predicted early pace of the event in question has a massive part to play here and, encouragingly for those starting from out wide, the Boodles May Festival opener – the six-furlong CAA Stellar Handicap – features loads of speed horses who may ultimately give the closers half a chance of getting involved from off it.
Old Chums, drawn in stall two, is back from seven furlongs after making most at Kempton last month and looks a dead obvious one to potentially lead, but he’s going to be joined by Karl Burke’s Beyond Borders, who will need to go a proper gallop from one as he looks like he might even want to go back up in trip before long.
Call Glory is another keen-going, prominent racer and conveniently has stall three to work with, while Al Shabab Storm (10) and Siobhanbrogan (14) have led in the past but look highly unlikely to adopt that position here from their wider berths.
Siobhanbrogan’s trainer Hugo Palmer also runs the promising and lightly-raced Auric, who recently went close to landing a punt on handicap debut at Windsor, having showed a good attitude to land a Kempton novice earlier last month. He was unraced at two and is evidently on a sharp upward curve.
At a bigger price, however, I’m drawn to BILLY WEBSTER who might just be good enough to defy a mark of 91 and the burden of top weight.
Firstly, his draw in nine is obviously not ideal (though Navigate and The Hooded Claw did both win this race from the same box in 2015 and 2014 respectively), but on the plus side he does have some of the slower starters in the field on his immediate inside, so I’m hopeful jockey Callum Shepherd might be able to get a fair spot in that second wave of runners behind the real trailblazers.
And one thing this horse can do it travel very strongly, something he displayed in abundance when winning handicaps at Wolverhampton (nursery) and Southwell either side of Christmas. The latter of those five-furlong victories – when sent off odds-on to overcome a mark of 84 – was particularly striking and his raw speed is clearly going to be a weapon on this circuit.
A 55-day break followed before Billy Webster resumed in a strong Lingfield handicap over this trip on March 1, and I can’t be alone in concluding that he just wasn’t seen to best effect there, having been drawn widest of all in 12 and accentuating the issue when jinking to his right as the gates opened.
His chance was significantly compromised from that point on but he made up ground in the straight quite stylishly, beaten just two and three-quarter lengths at the line without coming under maximum pressure.
That smacked of a horse still on the upgrade and I can definitely give him another chance off the same mark considering he looks a very fair price.
In addition, trainer George Scott – whose Seven Questions won the Palace House at 33/1 at Newmarket last week – has quite a tidy record on the Roodee, having had two winners and two seconds from just 11 runners over the years.
Go, Knicks, Go!
Timeform predict a ‘strong pace’ in the tote.co.uk Saddle-Up for More Than Racing Handicap too and that’s surely going to suit KNICKS.
A relatively cheap purchase (26,000 guineas) from Karl Burke/Amo Racing in the autumn, he already looks a shrewd bit of business by Michael and David Easterby, for whom the now-gelded son of Invincible Spirit made an encouraging debut at Catterick early last month.
He travelled like the best horse in the race that day but possibly just hit the front soon enough as he began to wander and then hung quite sharply to his right in the final furlong, finishing a well-held second but over two lengths clear of the third.
The first and third haven’t done much for the form since but the fourth Princess Alex has won a couple of handicaps subsequently and Knicks has been left on the same mark. If he’s sharper for the outing – his first run since September so there’s every chance – and gets a good tow deeper into the contest, he has every chance of being involved and hopefully emulating his half-brother Mr Excellency who won on good ground at this track in 2021.
Another top filly for gearing-up Gosdens?
I’m in no hurry to take on Grosvenor Square in the Boodles Chester Vase Stakes but the Weatherbys E-Passport Cheshire Oaks is rarely quite as straightforward as it may look on paper beforehand as fillies often leap forward out of nowhere, and I think a few of the lesser-fancied runners are worth exploring.
It has to be of some interest that James Owen is pushing on with Ambiente Amigo in this sort of company despite being stuffed in a handicap on her return to action, which suggests that Newmarket outing might just have been badly needed, while you have to applaud the equally ambitious campaigning of Flying Finn, who in fairness has won handicaps at Ripon and Doncaster in the manner of a filly miles ahead of her mark.
Joseph O’Brien’s Galileo Dame is comfortably the most likely winner in my eyes but the bet has to be BEELEY, given the way John and Thady Gosden’s fillies look to be just coming to themselves at this point in the year.
The well-bred Beeley (dam is a half-sister to G1 winner Ask among others) was just denied in a warm back-end maiden at Nottingham before unseating rider before the start and having to be withdrawn in a similar race at the same track later on in October.
She was put away for the winter and, no doubt to the annoyance of all concerned, again got upset at the start and had to be withdrawn after unshipping Kieran Shoemark before her intended comeback in a typically strong 10-furlong Newbury maiden last month.
Thankfully, the daughter of Camelot behaved a lot better when sent off favourite for a Sandown novice just less than a fortnight ago – arguably a little too well as she was so switched off that she missed a beat at the start. It was still a very encouraging reappearance run in the end as she found only Ribblesdale-bound stable companion Siyola a fraction too quick in the closing stages.
Gosden has won that same Sandown contest with Ribblesdale third Sparkle Roll and Oaks winner Emily Upjohn in the past and there’s no doubt both Siyola and Beeley are among the top of the pile at Clarehaven this spring.
The extra furlong and a half here looks bound to suit Beeley, and it’s obviously a bit of a statement of intent for the stable to pitch this twice-raced maiden into a Listed race they’ve won with Enable and Mehdaayih in recent seasons.
She looks to be sitting on a huge amount of untapped potential over middle-distances and is a must-bet at double-figure odds on Wednesday.
Published at 1600 BST on 07/05/24
TV bundle giveaway
We’re giving away a smart TV as part of our Ultimate Sports Fan competition.
To enter, simply answer the question below and one lucky winner will be selected at random.
For full details, click here.
Key terms and conditions:
18+
Sporting Life account required
One entry per person
Eligibility restrictions apply
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.