After more than enough time off, the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks will meet inside the TD Garden on Thursday for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Tipoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. CT and the game will be broadcast on ABC.
The Celtics come into this series as -250 favorites over Dallas, marking the first time they have entered the NBA Finals as favorites since 1986.
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They last played on May 27, finishing a four-game sweep of the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals. Boston went 12-2 during its run through the Eastern Conference playoffs.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, only needed five games to defeat the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, which ended on May 30. Before then, Dallas earned 4-2 series wins over the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Despite plenty of betting interest on the Mavs, the Celtics are 6.5-point favorites in Game 1. The over/under is set at 214.5 in the series’ opening showdown.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics
Time/TV: 7:30 p.m. CT (ESPN)
Spread (from FanDuel Sportsbook): Celtics -6.5
Total: 214.5
Moneyline: Celtics -250, Mavericks +205
Analysis: Bettors must understand that lines are extremely efficient in the NBA Finals. That’s why the spread has mostly remained at -6.5, despite most of the action coming in on the road underdogs.
The best way to make money on this series is by attacking some unknown variable. The biggest one involves Boston’s 7-foot-2 center, Kristaps Porzingis, who will return after being sidelined with a calf injury since April 29.
Porzingis will be pivotal in this series as Dallas has an inexperienced front-court, even if rookie Derek Lively II has exceeded expectations in his postseason debut. The Mavs didn’t have to worry about Rudy Gobert’s offensive production as much as they will Porzingis’ offensive output.
There are multiple ways to bet on Porzingis making an immediate impact in Game 1, especially while the market is uncertain about his health. FanDuel Sportsbook offers -160 odds on Porzingis to record one or more points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals under player specials.
However, I’d rather count on Porzingis as a facilitator. He’s dished out multiple assists in 61% of his games this season. BetMGM offers +138 odds on a same-game parlay involving 2+ assists from Porzingis in a Boston victory. No other sportsbook has better than +117 odds on that same SGP.
Prediction: Celtics 112, Mavericks 103 (Over 214.5)
Best bet: Porzingis to record 2+ assists and Celtics ML (+138 via BetMGM)