The third golf major of the year begins Thursday at the 2024 U.S. Open from Pinehurst No. 2 in Pinehurst, North Carolina.
Scottie Scheffler (+300) continued his winning ways this past weekend and is the big favorite, followed by Xander Schauffele (+1000), Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Collin Morikawa (+1400). Jon Rahm withdrew from the event Tuesday due to a left foot infection.
So where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? ESPN’s golf and betting experts break down everything thing you need to know to bet the 2024 U.S. Open.
Expert picks
Mark Schlabach: Scheffler. Yes, it’s a boring pick, but if the object of this exercise is to choose who’s going to lift the U.S. Open trophy on the 18th green at Pinehurst No. 2 on Sunday, I’m going with Scottie (again). He’s on another level when it comes to ballstriking and avoiding big misses. His creativity around the greens will come in handy. There’s no reason not to pick him. In fact, if I had to choose between taking Scheffler or the other 155 players in the field — all of them — I’d still go with Scottie.
Tory Barron: Collin Morikawa. We have reached a point in time in which it almost feels irresponsible to pick anyone other than Scottie Scheffler, but since I like to live on the edge, I’m going with another betting favorite, Morikawa. The No.-7 ranked player in the world has the ballstriking and short game to handle Pinehurst No. 2. Morikawa will capitalize on his recent roll and capture his third major title.
Elizabeth Baugh: Tommy Fleetwood. After Xander Schauffele‘s win last month, Fleetwood enters the “best player who hasn’t won a major” conversation. He has finished T26 or better in each of his last four starts and he’ll bring driving accuracy that is a must to win at Pinehurst.
Matt Barrie: Morikawa. Picking Scheffler is boring, and Morikawa is in great form; T-3 at Augusta and four top 10s since. His game is perfect off the tee to win this week at Pinehurst.
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Scheffler. He can’t win the Slam after finishing T-8 during his tumultuous week at the PGA Championship, but he can make us all wonder “what if” by winning at Pinehurst No. 2. The Masters is still the only major he’s won, but he finished T-7 or better in the past three U.S. Opens, including third last year. He’s rightfully the overwhelming favorite and it feels like throwing darts in the dark to try to pick anyone else.
Paolo Uggetti: Scheffler. Given what we know — that no one in the world is playing better golf than Scheffler right now and that Pinehurst No. 2 fits the best ball striker — it feels like it would take a literal act of God for Scheffler to not win this week.
Andy North: Scheffler. Scottie is a no-brainer. You have to be a great iron player to win at Pinehurst No. 2. He’s the best.
Curtis Strange: Scheffler. Scheffler is far and away the best in the world. Pinehurst No. 2 will be a precision course, and he is the most precise player since Tiger Woods.
Marty Smith: Max Homa. Max would tell me directly to my face that not picking Scheffler to win the U.S. Open is a really dumb decision. That’s hard to argue. But picking Scottie is too easy, and after Schauffele won his first major title at Valhalla last month, he told me he never stopped believing he could win — and that winning was simply the result of the work and the belief. I sense a very similar approach from Homa. Consistent, positive self-talk. So for me, it’s Max’s turn to join the major champion club.
Scott Van Pelt: Morikawa. I’m halfway to the Slam over here. Which is unreal. Getting any of these right is such a crapshoot. Similar notion here with the Schauffele pick at the PGA Championship, I am on a player who played well last week but didn’t quite get there. He also happens to be a major champion and a tremendous iron player. Morikawa gets leg No. 3 toward the career slam.
The best bets
Who is your bet to win?
Tyler Fulghum: Bryson DeChambeau (+1600)
If not betting Scheffler, I think DeChambeau makes a lot of sense. He’s finished sixth (Masters) and second (PGA Championship) in the first two majors of the season and is already a U.S. Open champ. His high ball flight should help him hold the difficult greens at Pinehurst No. 2 and he’ll have some kind of smart plan for handling shots around the green.
David Gordon: Rory McIlroy (+1200)
If it’s not Scheffler (by multiple shots), it’s McIlroy with the best combination of driving accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach, and putting history on lightning-fast Bermuda greens. McIlroy has five straight Top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open and oddly enough he’s improved his finish in each year over that span (T-9/T-8/T-7/T-5/2nd). It could be a while before we see this long of a price for Rory at another major.
Anita Marks: Scottie Scheffler to win by 2 strokes or more (+375)
His past three U.S. Opens finishes were third, T-2 and T-7. This season he checks all of the boxes: Top 10 in driving accuracy, first in greens In regulation, top 10 scrambling, first in putting average, first in bogey avoidance and bounce-back. Coming off a win at the Memorial Tournament, it is his U.S. Open to lose.
Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?
Gordon: Tommy Fleetwood (+280)
Fleetwood is a statistical box-checker, highlighted by his driving accuracy (3rd on TOUR this season) and scrambling (10th). Players are going to live in the 4-8 foot range when trying to get up-and-down off the greens this week, and Fleetwood holds up well in that area after making 14 of 18 from that distance last week at the Memorial. He’s made the cut in seven straight majors and cashed inside the Top 10 in four of them over that span.
Marks: Hideki Matsuyama (+415)
Matsuyama has made the U.S. Open cut in nine of the past 10 years, with a pair of top-four finishes. He sports one of the best short games in the world and is first in scrambling, which will be a huge advantage at Pinehurst. He’s also coming in with great form, finishing T-8 at last week’s Memorial, where he gained almost 4 strokes on approach.
The favorite Tiger Woods bet: To make the cut (+200)
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How to bet Tiger Woods at the U.S. Open
Tyler Fulghum explains why his favorite Tiger Woods bet has flipped due to drastic betting line movement.
Gordon: You may have heard this week is a far easier walk than the two previous major venues, and it will also be significantly warmer. Woods himself has conceded the difference that makes, and I think he’s poised to play the weekend in his first U.S. Open appearance since 2020.
Fulghum: I agree with David that this setup is the most ideal of almost any possible U.S. Open setup for Tiger to make the cut. His knowledge of how to play this course and style will benefit him greatly, and conditions are as easy as can possibly be on his broken down body.
Long shots to win
Gordon: Will Zalatoris (90-1)
Zalatoris held the outright lead on the back nine on Sunday the last time he played in the U.S. Open. I understand the long price considering he hasn’t even finished inside the top 40 in five straight starts, but his T-9 at the Masters, T-4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and runner-up at The Genesis Invitational this year is not for nothing. Lately it has been one bad round out of four, but I’m not willing to miss out on his first career major, especially if it comes at this price.
Fulghum: Jason Day (100-1)
I’m willing to take a shot on Day due to his elite short game around the green. Day ranks 22nd on Tour in SG: Around the Green — and that’s kind of poor for his normal standard — and 8th on Tour in SG: Putting. He’s a major champion that I can get at this longshot price whose strengths on the course match up with what will be tested most in this tournament.
Marks: Russell Henley (90-1)
Another golfer that checks a great number of boxes to win at Pinehurst. Henley is an accurate driver, fantastic long iron player, has amazing touch around the greens and putts well on Bermuda grass. This track fits Henley nicely.
Are there any other bets that stand out?
Gordon: Denny McCarthy top 20 finish (+330)
McCarthy is another player who’s surprised with strong finishes at premiere events that have difficult scoring conditions. I’m in on the Top-20 finish for the Virginia alum who will play alongside former college teammate Ben Kohles and current UVA rising junior Ben James for the first two rounds. McCarthy comes off a T-20 finish last year at LACC and a T-7 finish the year prior at Brookline.
Marks: Aaron Rai top 20 finish (+400)
Rai has four top 20s this season. No one finds more fairways on average, and he ranked ninth in strokes gained tee-to-green. He is also 16th in scrambling and 5th in bogey avoidance. Lots to like here.