Hockey fans officially have a compelling Stanley Cup Final.

Going into Game 6 on Friday night at Rogers Place at 8 p.m. ET on ABC, Florida — despite one-sided losses in Games 4 and 5 — is -350 to win the series, and Edmonton is +280 at BetMGM.

At DraftKings, Florida is -345 to hold on and raise the Stanley Cup, while Edmonton remains a series longshot at +270.

The way Edmonton won Game 4 — blowing out Florida 8-1 after chasing Sergei Bobrovsky — gave Oilers fans hope of a historic comeback from down 3-0.

Sure enough, Connor McDavid and Co. jumped out to an early lead on the road in Game 5, building a 4-1 cushion in the second period. The Panthers cut that lead to 4-3, but Edmonton got a empty-net goal late and held on to, in McDavid’s words, “drag Florida back to Edmonton” for Game 6 on Friday night.

For Friday’s matchup at what should be a raucous Rogers Place, the Oilers are slight favorites (-120 at FanDuel) to force Game 7, while Florida is even money. FanDuel’s Over/Under is 5.5, as it has been for every game in this series, (Over -106, Under -114).

Stanley Cup Final Game 6 Betting Analysis

Note: The following admittedly gives no credit to the Panthers, who built a 3-0 lead and nearly came back from down 4-1 in Game 5.

But it just feels unwise to bet against Edmonton right now, and not just because of Connor McDavid, who has a chance to complete a historic individual run through the playoffs with two more wins.

McDavid has 11 points in this series, including eight in Games 4 and 5 alone, and he’s already set a new record for assists in a postseason, with 34 (and counting). Additionally, with 42 points and as many as two games remaining, he has a real chance to break another longstanding Wayne Gretzky record: Most points in a single playoffs (47).

The Oilers have also dominated the special teams battle in the last two games of this series, with three power play goals and two more shorthanded, while Florida has not scored on the power play since Game 2.

Between this version of McDavid, a power play that is clicking at the right time, a goalie, Stuart Skinner, who has quietly outplayed Bobrovsky over the last 120 minutes — a development no one could have imagined after Games 1 and 2 — and a rowdy home crowd, it’s hard to shake the feeling that this series has Game 7 written all over it.

With that in mind, let’s get to a few plays for tonight:

Play 1: Edmonton Puck Line: -1.5 (+215) at DraftKings

Unfortunately, Edmonton to win at -120 doesn’t offer a ton of value. The strong possibility of the Oilers’ home crowd — which helped them win Game 4 8-1 — helping this team build a big lead makes this a great value play.

Another reason to consider the puck line: Even if the game is close, a one-goal contest late could still secure the cover on the puck line if there’s an empty-net goal like the one McDavid bagged to ice Game 5.

Play 2: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points (-130) at DraftKings

There’s a (justifiable) temptation to hammer a bigger number at a more lucrative price, but let’s play it safe and go with McDavid to get to two points. This feels inevitable considering how many he’s had game by game in this series:

Play 3: Over 5.5 (-106) at FanDuel

The two low-scoring games to start this series feel like distant memories now.

Following a seven-goal Game 3, Edmonton has turned the last two games into shootouts. The Oilers alone scored six goals in the first 40 minutes of Game 4 and added four more in the first two periods of Game 5 to drive the totals in those games to nine and eight, respectively.

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