We got another two predictions correct in yesterday’s article, so once again we are going to be diving into home run predictions.

As always, Sundays MLB betting slate features day games, so let’s dive right into it.

Play 1: Davis Schneider to Hit a Home Run (+440) FanDuel

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians, 1:40PM ET

Similar to yesterday, there are a ton of good games from a weather perspective due to the heat wave, and this game in Cleveland is no different. It is extremely hot and humid (which helps with carry), with winds blowing out at 15MPH. Schneider is not known for being a huge home run hitter, but he has decent stats and has a great opportunity to go yard today.

One thing about Schneider that immediately jumps off the page is how frequently he puts the ball into the air. He has the fourth-highest fly-ball rate in the MLB at 53.5%, and the second-highest launch angle at 23.3 degrees. Being able to put the ball in the air is always a valuable skill for hitting home runs, but in a game like today where the carry is going to be much higher than normal, that skill becomes even more valuable.

What makes this play even better, though, is the pitching matchup against Triston McKenzie of the Guardians. McKenzie is the type of pitcher that allows a lot of fly balls, with a fly ball rate of 51.5%, which is the highest in MLB of all pitchers who have thrown over 70 innings. From there, he has the highest barrel rate in MLB at 11.9% and the fourth-highest launch angle as well. This is a batter/pitcher matchup that heavily favors Schneider, so let’s hope he comes through for us.

Play 2: Lane Thomas to Hit a Home Run (+475) BetRivers

Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies, 3:10PM ET

Coors Field, the Rockies home stadium, is known for being a hitter friendly park due to the carry in the Denver altitude, and today is no different. It is above 90 degrees, and the higher altitude leads to more carry, making this one of the best games of the day from a weather perspective for home runs to be hit. From there, we targeted a juicy batter/pitcher matchup that favors the batter in Lane Thomas, who crushes left-handed pitching, going up against a lefty pitcher in Kyle Freeland.

On the entire season Thomas has an ISO rate of .226 (.200-.250 is considered “great” by FanGraphs). Thomas has better stats across the board against LHP, but from a home run perspective the biggest difference is his fly-ball rate is up to 45%, which would be 25th in MLB of all qualified batters. Thomas has also been mashing recently, as he has four home runs in his last 14 days, with an ISO rate of .333 (anything .250 and above is considered “excellent” by FanGraphs).

In terms of the pitcher, Kyle Freeland admittedly does not have horrible home run numbers despite the fact that he pitches at Coors field frequently, but he is worse against right-handed hitters, and Thomas is a righty. Freeland has only made three starts this year, but in those three starts he has given up three home runs, all three of which were hit by righties. His fly-ball rate jumps up 12% against righties from lefties, and his hard hit rate jumps up 10% as well. Thomas has hit a home run previously against Freeland, so here’s hoping he stays hot tonight.

Play 3: Adley Rutschman to Hit a Home Run (+800) Fanatics

Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros, 2:10PM ET

Part of this play has to do with the value we are getting all the way up at +800 odds, as Rutschman should not be priced this high in this game, even going up against Framber Valdez of the Astros. Valdez is generally a ground-ball pitcher, making it so he is not someone you would generally want to target for a home run. But his pitch-mix and the types of pitches that Valdez throws matches up well with the types of pitches that Rutschman mashes.

Valdez throws a sinker 42% of the time, and Rutschman has the highest ISO rate against sinkers than any other type of pitch, with an ISO rate of .323. He has hit three home runs off sinkers, with a batting average of .387 this season against sinkers. Valdez has only given up six home runs on the year, three of which have come when throwing sinkers.

In general, Rutschman is significantly better against left-handed pitching as well, and Valdez is a lefty. Rutschman has an ISO rate of .255 against lefties, up from .143 against righties. In six at-bats against Valdez in his career, Rutschman has three hits and one home run, hitting a no-doubter last year when these two faced off.

Bonus Pick: Alec Bohm (+450) FanDuel

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 11:35AM PT

This game starts too early to make our official list of three plays, but if you made it this far you deserve a fourth pick as Bohm is a great bet to hit a home run after coming through for us yesterday.

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