By late Monday night, American soccer fans will either be excitedly making plans for a blockbuster Copa America quarterfinal against Brazil or Colombia on Saturday, or they’ll be trying to decide who should replace Gregg Berhalter as manager.

There’s no in-between entering tonight’s USA vs. Uruguay match, which wraps up Group C for one of the most talented USMNT rosters in the history of U.S. Soccer.

The do-or-die stakes of this match are unusual and unfortunate, but that’s where the Copa America hosts find themselves after a loss to heavy underdog Panama last Thursday.

USA vs. Uruguay kicks off at 9 p.m. ET on FS1 from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

USA vs Uruguay Moneyline Odds

Below are the three-way moneyline odds for Monday’s match.

Before breaking down what to expect from a betting perspective, let’s explain what USA have to do to secure a second-place finish in Group C — and a trip to the quarterfinals.

Copa America Group C Scenarios: How Can USA Advance?

Uruguay lead Group C after winning their first two matches. That means that regardless of what happens in Kansas City, they’re going to reach the knockout rounds, most likely as the first-place team from this group. Only a loss to USA by four goals would allow the Americans to overtake Uruguay in first place via the goal differential tiebreaker.

The real question is whether it will be USA or CONCACAF rival Panama who reach the quarters via a second-place finish. Both enter Monday night with three points from their first two games, but USA have the advantage in goal differential (+1 to -1).

If USA manage to upset Uruguay and Panama take care of Bolivia in a game that also takes place at 9 p.m. Eastern (FS2) — and Los Canaleros are -145 at FanDuel in that match — USA will go through as long as Bolivia keeps it respectable enough to allow USA to maintain the goal differential advantage. That’s no sure thing after Bolivia lost its first two games of the Copa America 2-0 to USA and 5-0 to Uruguay.

If USA and Panama finish tied on points and goal differential, it would come down to goals scored (currently 3 to 3), then head-to-head results involving Uruguay, USA and Panama.

To sum it up, USA need to match Panama’s result on a night when the former’s opponent is head and shoulders better than the latter’s.

USA, Panama odds to qualify from Group C

Below are the sportsbooks’ takes on the battle for second place in Group C. Interestingly, USA’s odds range from -125 to +110, while Panama’s are as long as -125 and as short as -160.

USA vs. Uruguay Betting Analysis

Based on what we’ve seen from these teams this summer, Uruguay would be heavily favored if both these teams trotted out their first-choice lineups.

But while predictive analytics sites like Opta (whose supercomputer gives USA a 21% chance to win, compared to a 56% chance for Uruguay) lean toward the South American side, sportsbooks listing USA as the slight favorite is a good sign Uruguay will take a very different approach to this match than Berhalter and Co.

Uruguay Squad Analysis

Oddsmakers see Uruguay (+450 to win the Copa America at FanDuel) as the top contender after Argentina and Brazil.

After a strong start to qualifying play for the 2026 World Cup announced this team as a legit threat in this tournament, they’ve lived up to the hype through 180 minutes of action, thumping Panama 3-1 and Bolivia 5-0 to take control of this group.

Striker Darwin Nunez (Liverpool) and midfielder Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) are the biggest names on this roster, but under Marcelo Bielsa, this is a dangerous, balanced squad that looks like a real threat to win this tournament.

No one will know for sure whether Uruguay will rest key players on Monday night until just before kickoff, but given that Uruguay don’t need a result, USA should get a big break against a rotated side that doesn’t need a result.

Also worth noting: Bielsa will not be on the sideline, as he has been suspended for failing to get his team back on the pitch after halftime earlier in the Copa America.

USA Squad Analysis

As for USA, how they start this match given all the pressure on them after Thursday’s dud against Panama will be crucial. Forwards Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun are in form, and they’ll need another big night with Tim Weah unavailable while serving a suspension for the shove that got him a red card against Panama.

There are questions for the USMNT about both the health of starting keeper Matt Turner, who did not finish the Panama match due to injury following an early collision, and how the midfield and back line will hold up against the intense pressure that Uruguay will apply.

In CONCACAF, most teams sit back, which means that the high press from Uruguay (even its backups) will pose a unique challenge for the American back line of Antonee Robinson, Chris Richards, Tim Ream and Joe Scally and either Turner or Ethan Horvath in goal. In international play, that group is unaccustomed to facing opposing forwards who are aggressive without the ball, and it showed in the 5-1 loss to Colombia in a Copa America tune-up on June 8.

USA vs. Uruguay Prediction

The reasons to like USA start with the boost they should get from a rowdy environment at Arrowhead and the fact they need this much more than their opponents on Monday night.

These players have heard all about the stakes in this match, not just for this tournament, but for whether Berhalter will keep his job for the 2026 World Cup. USA have been tough to predict in recent weeks, but that should bring out their A game.

We’ll go with USA finding a way, somehow, but don’t expect this to be easy, even if Uruguay play a line-up full of reserves.

USA vs. Uruguay Best Bets

Play 1: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-110) bet365

It’s hard to imagine either team coming up with a shutout, especially given Uruguay’s approach and all the pressure on this USA squad. This would feel like a safe bet even at shorter odds, which makes it that much more tempting at this price.

Play 2: Over 2.5 Goals (+122) FanDuel

Every sportsbook lists the Under for this match at plus-money, but FanDuel offers the best price at +122. The desperation USA will have to play with will make them both more vulnerable to conceding and more likely to score, which means there a few ways for this over to cash.

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