The Euro 2024 round of 16 wraps up with two matches on Tuesday. Following Netherlands vs. Romania at noon ET, a match the Dutch are expected to win comfortably, Austria take on Turkey at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.

Austria vs. Turkey Moneyline Odds

Austria vs. Turkey Betting Analysis

Austria Squad Analysis

Austria and Switzerland were both impressive in group play, particularly the former, despite rosters that boast far less star power than the top favorites in this tournament.

Sure enough, the Swiss bounced Italy in the round of 16 despite entering that match as heavy underdogs. Austria have a different challenge in their round of 16 matchup, as oddsmakers list them as the clear, but not overwhelming favorites against Turkey on Tuesday.

Fans who tuned into Austria’s Euro 2024 qualifiers saw that Manager Ralf Rangnick’s famous high-intensity press had been quickly and effectively implemented with the Austrian national team following his hire in 2022. How effective this style could be at Euro 2024, especially in a tough group that would require Austria to get results against the Netherlands and/or France, remained a question, though.

But after losing 1-0 to France in the opener, Austria proved its formula can work in this tournament with a 3-1 win over Poland and a 3-2 win over a solid Netherlands side. Austria’s plus-two goal differential despite playing in arguably the toughest of the six groups is a clear sign this team should be taken seriously, and oddsmakers appear to have taken note, at least for Tuesday’s match against Turkey.

Turkey Squad Analysis

The Turkish squad is anchored by veteran Inter Milan midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu, who is one of five players who scored a goal in group play. Turkey started Euro 2024 with a 3-1 win over Georgia, but came back down to earth in their second match, a 3-0 loss to Portugal.

Manager Vincenzo Montella’s team needed a result against the Czech Republic in its final match of group play, and caught a break when Czechia’s Antonin Barak was sent off after 20 minutes. Despite the man advantage, Turkey were unable to take the lead until the 50th minute of that match (on a goal by Calhanoglu), and the 10-man Czech Republic equalized in the 66th before a goal by Turkey’s Cenk Tosun in the 94th secured the win and the trip to the round of 16.

The biggest concern for Turkey is its back line, as only Poland, Croatia and Scotland allowed more than the five goals that Turkey conceded in group play (which included a matchup against Georgia’s Euro 2024-worst defense).

Turkey rely heavily on 19-year-old rising stars Arda Guler (Real Madrid) and Kenan Yildiz (Juventus), who both started on the wings against Czech Republic.

The biggest concern for Turkey in the round of 16 is how the back line will handle
Austria’s intense pressure from start to finish, which is a big reason why Turkey are longshots in this match.

Austria vs. Turkey Best Bets

Play 1: Austria Team Total Over 1.5 (-110) BetMGM

Austria have a great chance to jump a Turkish back line that struggled in group play, especially against Portugal (the same Portugal that has since been shut out by Georgia and Slovenia, but somehow survived).

Austria Team Total Over 1.5 is the safe play at nearly even money, but Austria Over 2.5 (+290 at BetMGM) is also tempting to anyone looking for a high-upside flier.

Play 2: Parlay — Austria Win, Over 1.5 (+140) DraftKings

Have we mentioned we’re all over Austria in this one?

Rangnick’s side have a real chance to cover this Over by themselves, and if Austria had entered this tournament with a bit more name recognition, it would be much shorter than -110. It all adds up to make this a seemingly safe, high-value play on a side that just scored six goals in its last two matches.

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