Serbia’s men’s basketball team enters the Olympics as one of the most respected teams in the competition thanks to the leadership of Denver Nuggest star Nikola Jokic and the sharpshooting of Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic.

Oddsmakers give Serbia the fourth-shortest odds to win Gold of the 12 teams that reached the Games, but see USA vs. Serbia in the Olympic opener for both teams as a lopsided contest.

In fact, the spread for Sunday’s game at 11:15 a.m. ET on NBC is 12.5 or greater at most sportsbooks, and USA’s moneyline odds are as short as -1000 (DraftKings, ESPN BET).

USA vs. Serbia Men’s Basketball Odds

USA vs. Serbia Betting Analysis

Obviously, after Jokic, Serbia’s roster is considerably less talented than Team USA’s. The possible boost coach Steve Kerr and the Americans could get from Kevin Durant if he’s able to take the court could make this a juggernaut that can live up to oddsmakers’ expectations and overwhelm even the best teams in their path.

Healthy Durant Could Make Team USA Unstoppable

News emerged on Saturday afternoon that Durant will be in action against Serbia. It will be interesting to see how many minutes he plays in his first appearance since straining his left calf in early July.

If — and it’s currently a big if — Durant is 100% healthy, he would provide a massive advantage for a roster that is loaded with elite NBA talent. LeBron James, Steph Curry and Anthony Edwards might be the first names that come to mind given that Durant has not been first-team All-NBA since 2017-18.

Durant, however, is the most prolific Olympic/FIBA scorer in the history of Team USA. The future Hall-of-Famer has averaged 19.8 points per game in his Olympic career, and he made history by averaging 20.7 ppg at the Tokyo Games in 2021.

He has a chance to cement himself as the greatest Olympic hooper of all time if he wins Gold again. If that happens, he would become the first U.S. men’s player to do so at four different Olympics).

Can USA Dominate After Looking Beatable in Exhibitions?

Durant and Co. have a ceiling that no team in Paris can match, but USA was far from dominant in its last two exhibition games, squeaking by both South Sudan and Germany. They face a much tougher opponent in Serbia on Sunday, and if they’re not at their best, they’re going to find themselves in a tight ballgame late.

The biggest question — aside from the uncertainty around Durant’s health — is whether Kerr has been able to land on a preferred lineup and rotation entering the games that count. Having a roster full of stars is (obviously) a great problem to have, but it will still be important for Team USA to reach a conclusion on which players are going to be leading the way.

That’s especially true because top competitors Canada, France, Serbia and Germany all have defined identities and proven chemistry. Those attributes may not be enough for anyone to knock off USA, but they could help bridge the gap created by the U.S.’s undeniable advantages in depth and talent.

Can Serbia’s supporting cast complement Jokic?

Casual fans — and, apparentely, oddsmakers — are writing Serbia off on Sunday, likely under the assumption that the U.S. will overwhelm everyone besides Jokic. While that’s a possibility, bettors should keep in mind that Serbia reached the Gold Medal Game of the 2023 FIBA World Cup with a roster that did not feature the three-time NBA MVP.

Bogdanovic is a deadly shooter who should be even more effective from beyond the FIBA 3-point line, which is shorter than the NBA‘s, and 6-foot-11 former Gonzaga star Filip Petrusev and Heat PF Nikola Jovic give Serbia two skilled bigs in addition to Jokic.

Veteran guard Vasilije Micić, 30, did not make his NBA debut until 2023-24, and played a limited role for OKC and Charlotte this year. But he was one of the best players in the Euroleague from 2018 through 2023, taking home league MVP in 2021 and leading Istanbul-based Anadolu Efes to the Euroleague championship in 2021 and 2022.

Serbia are deeper than they get credit for, and the impact of having arguably the best player in the NBA right now can’t be overstated.

USA vs. Serbia Prediction, Best Bets

As good as Serbia is, it’s still hard to see them pulling the massive upset in this matchup.

They look like great value to at least keep this one close, though, and there are a couple safe plays for anyone bullish on Jokic’s team keeping this one interesting.

Obviously, the spread — Serbia +13.5 (-110 at EPN BET) — is a good place to start. Also consider Serbia First-Half Spread +7.5 (-115 at DraftKings, ESPN BET).

A couple other high-upside options that are worth small if plays you’re skeptical of how the U.S. will look in the first half amid the lineup questions are Serbia First Half Moneyline (+340 at DK, ESPN BET) and Halftime/Full Time — Serbia/USA (+650 at ESPN BET).

All that being said, USA’s talent should be enough for a close win.

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