Two bets for our in-form Matt Brocklebank as he looks to highlight the pick of the value at York and Ascot this Saturday.
- Matt Brocklebank’s Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 255pts in profit.
Romance a live chance in Ascot feature
Aidan O’Brien is leaving no stone unturned as he looks to banish the memories of Auguste Rodin trailing home last of 10 in the 2023 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes, and the plan is there for all to see.
Hans Andersen – usually in the role of the rabbit these days – will no doubt look to take them along at a strong gallop, pass the baton to Luxembourg with half a mile to travel, then in theory Ryan Moore should have no excuses on the classy favourite, who we know stays the trip well and loves fast ground.
What they can’t really account for, however, is bumping into a better horse on the day and, given Bluestocking would prefer some dig underfoot and the others just don’t look quite up to the task, Rebel’s Romance is the one potential stumbling block in my view.
He’s got to be a considerable threat too based on his international form from earlier this year, the defeat of former winner Shahryar and the excellent filly Liberty Island in the Sheema Classic in March a standout piece of evidence. Auguste Rodin failed to beat a rival that day too, don’t forget.
We don’t yet know whether Rebel’s Romance can quite stand up to the rigours of the kind of tactical battle he’ll face this weekend, given his five victories in Britain (from five starts) have come at no higher than Group 3 level, but he’s a fully-matured six-year-old now and Charlie Appleby has made a point of only going for these domestic Group 1s when he thinks he can win.
It’s a race I’m really looking forward to watching and couldn’t put anyone off the second-favourite if 4/1 or thereabouts, but those sort of prices are hardly the realm of this column’s MO and I’ll move on.
The Moet & Chandon International Stakes is obviously way more open and Orazio looks bound to land one of these premier pots before long after his back-to-form third in the Wokingham last time. That eyecatching effort showed he can handle quick ground too and he has inevitably found his way towards the top of the market with William Buick back on board.
Saffie Osborne (always worth following on the straight course here and among the winners again on Friday) rode Orazio at the Royal meeting and now switches back to HICKORY, who makes loads of appeal at the prices.
The first thing to note is that his trainer James Fanshawe – who also runs the seven-year-old Fresh – is in excellent form right now and this race is seemingly high on his list of summer targets given Fresh won it in 2022 and Hickory found just one too good when sent off a huge price 12 months ago.
Both horses evidently like the place but it’s Hickory with fewer miles on the clock and he looks capable of producing another small career-best to win this at the age of six as he’s only run 15 times all told.
The big effort here last year, when splitting subsequent Doncaster winner Baradar and the very solid yardstick Star Of Orion, came in a first-time visor and it’s no surprise at all to see the return of that same headgear after a rather resentful run in first-time cheekpieces at Newbury last month.
Prior to that, Hickory had looked in excellent heart, just denied on his Kempton comeback before a fine fourth in the Victoria Cup. He finished between reopposing pair Bless Him and Ropey Guest on that occasion, but the performance should definitely be marked up as he didn’t get anything like a clear run and was reportedly struck by a rival’s whip around a furlong from the finish.
He ended up towards the middle of the track and away from the main action but the way he kept on was really encouraging and he runs off a 1lb lower mark on Saturday.
I’d have him at least as short as Fresh and the double-figure prices should be snapped up.
Going gaga for Goo Goo at York
A really interesting edition of the Sky Bet York Stakes is the main attraction on the Knavesmire and this year’s race could have a major bearing on the Juddmonte International as all four of the runners are entered in next month’s Group 1 over the same course and distance.
King’s Gambit looks more than ready for a test of this nature and, with Passenger and Alflaila required to give the three-year-old a chunk of weight, Harry Charlton’s improver could be the safest bet, despite some concerns over a very tactically-run race.
There’s got to be a chance Royal Rhyme gets a genuine freebie out in front and with those fears in mind, I’d rather try and chisel something out at more rewarding odds in the Sky Bet Dash Handicap and RADIO GOO GOO fits the bill.
It’s not the strongest running of this valuable race and it would come as no surprise to see it go down to a matter of heads and necks between a bunch of them, but there aren’t many sprinters I’d want on my side more than Radio Goo Goo in such a scenario.
She’s just so tough and reliable, while her front-running style is perfect for this track, especially when the ground is riding on top – as it was when she battled back to see off Al Simmo and Pink Crystal in a course and distance fillies’ handicap last June.
She’s been busy since then but has held her form remarkably well, getting back to winning ways at Ripon in May before showing all her customary early speed and guts in the finish to fend off Bosh and the reopposing Dare To Hope at Chester late last month.
Radio Goo Goo was nudged up 3lb to a mark of 90 on the back of that latest win but showed up admirably once again at Newmarket under a claiming rider last time, possibly just finding the final climb to the line on the July Course a bridge too far.
There are some sharp showers in the forecast but they might not arrive until a bit later and it’s good to firm at the time of writing so she should be perfectly at home in conditions, while Richard Kingscote is back in for the ride which looks a decent move as he knows her quite well.
There are inevitably other potential pace angles in the field but I’m convinced the selection will lead the way and we know just how well early pace carries at York. It should be hard to keep her out of the frame if bringing her A-game which looks more likely than not all things considered.
Published at 1600 BST on 26/07/24
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