Our flagship racing column produced big profits at Royal Ascot and Newmarket’s July Festival – Matt has three bets to consider as Goodwood kicks off on Tuesday.
- Matt Brocklebank’s Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 250pts in profit, while this year he is +128.10pts from 202pts staked – a Return On Investment of 63.41%.
Value Bet tips: Tuesday July 30
1pt win Stay Well in 1.50 Goodwood at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Killybegs Warrior in 1.50 Goodwood at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
1pt win Jm Jungle in 4.10 Goodwood at 17/2 (General)
Go back to the Well with Warrior
The Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap gets things under way at the Qatar Goodwood Festival and it’s the best betting race on the first of five days’ action on the famous Sussex Downs.
Famously tricky also rings true when it comes to this spectacular venue but the 10-furlong start does offer plenty of chance for those drawn wide to pick up a decent early position, provided they have the requisite gate speed and inclination to go forward.
Charlie Johnston runs three in a race the Johnston yard has won eight times since the turn of the century and the all-too-familiar plan no doubt goes a little bit like this: break well, sacrifice some gas very early on in order to lead or sit handily, stack them up in behind by taking a breather before the turn in, look to pinch the race with two furlongs to travel; hang tough.
Frankie Dettori pulled it off to a tee two years back on the Johnston-trained Forest Falcon (stall 16), while a few of their other winners defied very wide draws too, so the in-form Wadacre Gomez (William Buick in for the ride) certainly shouldn’t be overlooked on account of being handed stall 14. His tendency to miss a beat as the stalls open, however, has to be a slight concern.
With that in mind, stablemates Loyal Touch (7) and KILLYBEGS WARRIOR (6) are arguably more likely to get the dream run, if such a thing exists at Goodwood, and it’s the latter who looks quite interesting at long odds on Tuesday.
He’s been fairly lamentable on his last four starts, including behind Enfjaar in the John Smith’s Cup at York, but he’s not been able to lead and, on top of that, conditions have been too soft in the three most recent outings. Prior to that he was drawn seven of seven at Chester which obviously wasn’t ideal either.
Having now slipped to a mark 9lb lower than when an encouraging sixth at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting on his return to the grass in May – and on the lowest mark he’s ever run off in a turf handicap – the experienced four-year-old suddenly becomes a horse to consider.
Throw in the drying ground which will be in his favour and the fact Johnston turns to cheekpieces in a bid to spark him back to life at a meeting the trainer evidently targets, and it’s not hard to envisage him giving it a good go from the front under Kevin Stott (who is 4-20 for the stable under its current banner).
William Knight’s Dual Identity is the other one from the same York race I’d be willing to give another chance to at some stage before the year’s out as he didn’t get a clear run at all, but his current mark doesn’t leave much room for manoeuvre and if you’re considering him then you’ve got to be interested in STAY WELL too.
Hughie Morrison’s horse probably hasn’t won the number of races one might have liked, given his raw ability and versatility when it comes to trip, but he was a respectable third to Dual Identity in a strong 10-furlong race at Sandown last September and he now enjoys a sizeable 13lb swing in the weights with that horse.
He’s also looking quite nicely handicapped on a couple of pieces of more recent form at Chelmsford, when twice placed behind a pair of aforementioned rivals there last month.
On the first occasion he was beaten a length when third to Wadacre Gomez, while he was beaten less than two lengths by Enfjaar when runner-up last time. He’s now 6lb and 11lb better off with that pair of subsequent winners and he’ll be happy with the good ground back on turf.
Stay Well lives up to his name over Tuesday’s 10-furlong trip but, importantly, he can travel close to the pace too and I suspect Hollie Doyle will be under instruction to make sure her mount is somewhere in the first half-dozen when the taps are turned on.
That doesn’t seem unreasonable given his draw (stall 5) and, with Killybegs Warrior having realistic blowout potential, I’d like some win-only back-up in a race of this nature so will go double handed.
Quinns can win sprint again…
It will be some achievement if Kinross can land the HKJC World Pool Lennox Stakes for a third time in succession but I reckon he’s got his hands full with Tiber Flow, English Oak and Noble Dynasty in particular.
Charlie Appleby’s horse looked to have really come of age when seeing off the 112-rated Nostrum (since nudged up to 113) in the Group 3 Criterion at Newmarket last month and William Buick will surely try to sit in the slipstream of Audience and upped-in-trip Art Power.
Genuine value looks thin on the ground there and it’s the same in the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup as the only one I could see really surprising Kyprios is Gregory, and he’s a single-figure price with most firms so isn’t exactly being missed.
Best bet away from the ITV cameras is JM JUNGLE in the Coral Racing Club Handicap at 4.10.
Stable jockey Jason Hart wouldn’t be able to do the weight (8-4) on stablemate Lord Riddiford, who has won this event for the last three years, but I think he’s on the right one this year regardless of that as Jm Jungle was a big eyecatcher at the Curragh last time.
Racing off his BHA mark of 89 and sent off at 9/1 for the super-competitive Rockingham Handicap, a race that’s already thrown up four subsequent winners, the four-year-old was momentarily short of room when the pace picked up but he came home strongly up the centre to finish fourth.
That left the distinct impression he was circling back to the peak form he showed when ‘winning’ (later disqualified) a big handicap out in Bahrain back in February and, given Goodwood has generally been a good stomping ground for the Quinns too, this race has surely been aimed at for a while.
Published at 1600 BST on 29/07/24
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