Jon Greenberg is a columnist in Chicago and Zac Jackson is the Cleveland Browns beat writer but they spend way too much time thinking about UMass and Kent State.
GREENBERG (3-2 last week, 9-6 overall): There are guys who go to Las Vegas to golf, gamble a little bit and go to fancy dinners, guys who go there to see the fights, guys who love to hit the clubs and, uh, the clubs. If you want to know what kind of Vegas trip I just got back from, I was the last one at the sportsbook Saturday when I got there at 9:30 a.m. I was also the first one to leave (not counting the guy who would wander away for an hour to play blackjack) around 8 p.m.
I felt like I played in the Backyard Brawl when I walked out of those doors. I think we set a Cosmopolitan sportsbook record for the number of Old Fashioneds, White Russians and Tom Collins ordered.
It was an OK day for me, gambling-wise, but you know the truism: You regret the bets you didn’t make, not the ones you lost. And this is where I say I didn’t bet the Alabama game that I touted last week and told everyone else to bet on. (I hope you listened.) I was going to live bet it, but I didn’t like the live line and let it pass. It ruined my day, even more than actually putting real money on the UMass bet you proposed last week. (I also live-bet Colorado State to win!)
They even put that game on a sportsbook TV for some reason. Everyone got a good laugh out of that, and you.
I did win with Pitt over WVU and my biggest W of Saturday wasn’t mentioned here last week: Indiana -3.5 over UCLA. Kurtis Rourke is now a hero in two great college towns.
How was your weekend?
JACKSON (2-3, 5-7): I went 2-1 in NFL picks. I got swept, again, on college picks. I spent a lot of time standing in the security line at Jacksonville Airport, thinking about my sins, my misses and my obviously flawed process. Then, there wasn’t even a Chik-Fil-A on the other side.
Anyway, onward we push. You must find the silver linings in this stupid game, and one is that at least I didn’t have the Philadelphia Eagles. Another is that a big part of my college picking strategy, as we get more data points, is that while folks talk and overanalyze the big games, a good way to find winners is to diagnose the absolute worst teams. Given my picks thus far, I’m all over that list.
In total, 5-7 isn’t awful. I should have had Tennessee -49 vs. Kent State, obviously, because I was completely unsurprised that Tennessee led that game 65-0 at halftime.
I’m headed to Vegas next week. Should I tell folks I know you?
GREENBERG: I don’t think that will help you too much, but if you can find the sweatshirt I left in a cab at 4:30 a.m., I’d appreciate it. Also, if you want to watch games in a non-sportsbook environment, I recommend Beer Park at the Paris Casino. It feels like a slightly upscale sportsbook. Great vibe and it’s steps from the casino floor. (There’s also a betting kiosk inside the bar.)
I’ve got a big college underdog to take: Marshall +40 at Ohio State. The Buckeyes nearly covered a 48.5 spread against Akron that I touted earlier in the season and then they did beat Western Michigan by 56.
Marshall head coach Charles Huff made news by joking about a Biscuits NIL deal, but he’s not coaching Akron. I’m betting the Thundering Herd, which is 2-0 against the spread so far, can keep the deficit under 40.
On the flip side, I’ll take Penn State -48.5 over Kent State. I think the live line at one point last week was Tennessee -77, so in that sense, the Golden Flashes covered. It won’t get that ugly, but they’ll lose by 50 this week.
JACKSON: There’s a chance that this Kent State team is generationally bad. You can add me to that Penn State -48.5 pick. I’d love to hold a meet-up for all 13 of our readers at Dix Stadium in November before one of the weeknight games, but for my safety, I’d better start picking some winners.
Very few things on this earth tackle a hangover like grease from Tudor’s Biscuit World, so I appreciate Coach Huff. Speaking of hangovers, just six days after Washington State upset Washington in the Apple Cup, I’m grabbing the Cougars’ Friday night opponent, San Jose State +14 and now it’s down to +12.5.
I also want USC -6. Michigan has the uniforms and a few of the country’s best players, but this Michigan team is a shell of what it’s been. I can’t yet call the Trojans legit, but you can be semi-legit and beat this Michigan team by a touchdown or more.
GREENBERG: Mark me down for USC -6 too. They’re better than UMass, right?
I was all ready to take the Titans against the Packers and Malik Willis, but now Jordan Love is making noise about playing this week, even if his mobility will be limited, I’m going to stay away from that game. It’s a good one to live bet, though.
I can’t bet it but take the Bears +1 in Indianapolis. The offense has heroically bad but I’m betting they actually run the ball this week and make life easier on Caleb Williams, who will actually throw a touchdown pass for the first time in the NFL.
I was also going to pick the Chargers over my Steelers, but Justin Herbert missed practice with an ankle injury Wednesday. Also, I heard “Renegade” playing at Whole Foods that afternoon, so that’s a sign. If Herbert is out, take the Steelers. If he plays and looks balky, take the Steelers. But it’s not an official pick.
Even though I feel like there are some layups this week, I’m second-guessing some of the numbers out there. Let’s go with the Buccaneers -6.5 at home against the Denver Broncos. It’s a little too high, but I’m starting Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin in fantasy, so I think once they find that out, they’ll be inspired to score more points.
And now a moment of silence for our survivor picks last week. RIP.
JACKSON: My friend ran a survivor pool of 45 people from his employer and the neighborhood, and it ended in Week 2. Two weeks! Hard game this is.
Under 38.5 in Browns-Giants is a winner. I worry about defensive touchdowns but not much else. A good Jim Schwartz-led defense feasts on bad quarterbacks, and I see the Browns dominating here but mostly putting together long drives when they have the ball.
Under 35.5 in Chargers-Steelers is a winner. It’s flirting with awfully dangerous territory, I know, and only a couple strange bounces can sink it. But there’s a real chance, too, that this one stays under 17. Have you seen these teams play offense?
Monday night, I like Jacksonville +5.5 in Buffalo. The Jags have been awful offensively, but their defense is legit. They head to Orchard Park as a desperate team that probably played well enough to win over the last 2 1/2 quarters last week, minus a few puzzling decisions. I won’t be stunned if they win outright here, but five feels like too many.
A bonus college double pick: Duke -14.5 and Duke-Middle Tennessee State under 51.5. Duke is 121st in offensive success rate … and favored by 15. Manny Diaz can coach some defense, and Duke, at this early stage, is top 30 in defensive EPA against both the run and the pass. I just think it’s ugly and that Middle Tennessee can’t find the end zone more than once.
GREENBERG: A Duke-Middle Tennessee State under? In this economy? This is why I subscribe to The Athletic.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Miller Moss: Michael Owens / Getty Images)