Newcastle United (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) welcomes Manchester City (4-1-0) to St. James’ Park Saturday for a high-profile EPL clash. Kickoff is set for 7:30 a.m. ET (USA Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s soccer odds around the Newcastle United vs. Manchester City odds, and make our best EPL bets, picks and predictions.

Newcastle is unbeaten at home this season, posting a perfect 2-0-0 record. In those wins, United beat Southampton 1-0 and Tottenham Hotspur 2-1. It is coming off a disappointing 3-1 road loss to Fulham last Saturday, having ended with 0.7 fewer expected goals. United is led by F Harvey Barnes, who has netted a team-high 3 goals in just 2 starts (5 total appearances).

Manchester City has a perfect road record this season as well, having gone 2-0-0. City is coming off a 2-2 draw with Arsenal in which it was soundly outplayed, but the Gunners had a 1st-half red card and City needed a 98th-minute goal to draw even. So far this season on the road, City has a 3-1 win over West Ham and a 2-0 win over Chelsea. It is led by F Erling Haaland, who has tallied 10 goals on the season.

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Newcastle United vs. Manchester City odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of soccer odds. Lines last updated Friday at 4:53 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Newcastle United +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Manchester City -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Draw +333
• Over/Under: 3.5 (O: +115 | U: -160)

Newcastle United vs. Manchester City picks and predictions

Prediction

Manchester City 3, Newcastle United 1

Moneyline (ML)

BET MANCHESTER CITY (-165).

The odds aren’t great here, but they are certainly playable. City has looked unstoppable, and the results it is getting suggest it should be able to come out on top. In its last 3 league games, it has ended with 1.4, 1.1 and 2.3 more expected goals than its opponent.

More of the reason to play City stands on United’s struggles. United has won 2 of its last 3 games, but it is coming off a 3-1 loss to Fulham in which it ended with 0.7 fewer expected goals. Couple that with a net expected goals of 2.1 versus 3.0 for its opponents in home games, and it isn’t quite at the City level yet.

With all that in mind, play MANCHESTER CITY (-165).

Over/Under (O/U)

BET OVER 3.5 (+115).

Newcastle United has a competent offense and a lacking defense, which should make the perfect combo for goals. United went Over this total in its last game as well. It has had at least 1.5 expected goals in 4 straight games and has allowed at least 1.2 in every game this season. The opportunities have been there for both its offense and its opponent.

City has the players to take advantage of that weakness. It has gone Over in 3 of its last 5 games and has had at least 2.1 expected goals in 4 straight. City has just 1 clean sheet on the season, so expect United to get on the board Saturday.

TAKE OVER 3.5 (+115).

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