As September draws to a close, we have a more focused snapshot of the college football landscape. 

A clearer picture offers some guidance for plays to consider in Week 5. 

BYU + 3.5 at Baylor (BetMGM, FanDuel, Bally, Bet Rivers)

BYU and Baylor come into their Big 12 Conference showdown at McLane Stadium off decidedly different finishes in Week 4. While Baylor badly mismanaged its late-game defense and let a sure win at Colorado turn into an overtime loss, BYU stomped No. 13-ranked Kansas State, 38-9. 

And yet, after opening with Baylor as a mere one-point favorite, the Bears were either a three- or 3.5-point favorite depending on the source. Perhaps the Cougars have not yet shown enough to spark confidence from the public. A blowout win over a top 15-ranked opponent and having already gone on the road to Texas once this season to knock off a quality team in SMU suggests BYU is legit, however. 

In order to stay perfect and score the underdog win, the Cougars need to emulate Utah — not advice anyone from BYU ever typically wants to follow. In this instance, though, it’s the key to success. 

Utah pounced on Baylor with an early 23-0 advantage back in Week 2 thanks in part to favorable field position. The Utes’ two early touchdown drives began on their own 44-yard line and at the Baylor three-yard line after a fumble. 

Turnovers have been vexing for Baylor early on, with seven committed through four games. A goal-line fumble sealed the Bears’ loss last week at Colorado. BYU, meanwhile, ranks tied for No. 15 nationally heading into Week 5 with eight takeaways. 

Forcing some key turnovers and Jake Retzlaff’s ability to attack a defense that gave up 341 passing yards a week ago should see BYU cover and score the outright road win.

RJ Harvey -110 2+ TDs vs. Colorado (DraftKings)

Speaking of Colorado’s win over Baylor, the Buffs rush defense has not been the liability in 2024 that it was in 2023 — but that hardly means CU has turned into the 2011 Alabama Crimson Tide. 

All four of Colorado’s initial opponents have rushed for at least 131 yards. All but FCS opponent North Dakota State averaged more than four yards per carry. Vulnerability to explosive runs is a specific concern for a Buffs defense that has given up two runs of 40-plus and five of 20-plus yards. 

Facing the nation’s most productive rushing offense to date, a variety of prop bets related to UCF’s ground game may be worth considering. RJ Harvey at -110 two score touchdowns or more may be the safest. 

Harvey is one of three Knights running backs averaging at least 6.6 yards per carry and 47 yards per game, splitting touches with Peny Boone and Myles Montgomery. Harvey’s most leaned-on among the trio with 59 carries in three games and eight touchdowns.

Harvey at +290 to score the game’s first touchdown may also be a worthwhile play.

Oklahoma +1.5 at Auburn (BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel)

Oklahoma’s SEC debut was a bust, with the Sooners losing a 25-15 decision to Tennessee that played out more lopsided than the final score. OU will have time to lick the wounds former Sooners offensive coordinator Josh Heupel inflicted last week in due time; Oklahoma draws a bye week between its visit to Auburn and its Red River Rivalry meeting with top-ranked Texas. 

Coming off a home loss that exposed Oklahoma’s offensive inconsistencies, look for the Sooners defense to tee off against an opponent in even more dire straits when it has the ball. 

Auburn’s offense has been bullied overmatched opponents Alabama A&M and New Mexico, but been shut down in losses to Cal and Arkansas. Last week’s 24-14 loss to open the SEC slate saw Payton Thorne and Hank Brown combine for four interceptions.  

Thorne will start on Saturday, but it does not feel as if he has the confidence of coach Hugh Freeze. Freeze was critical of Auburn’s quarterbacks following the Arkansas loss, prompting a public airing-out of the coach by his former Ole Miss quarterback, Bo Wallace. 

With the lingering controversy and Auburn’s struggles to score consistently against SEC opponents dating back to Freeze’s first season at the helm, a talented Oklahoma defense should continue the Tigers’ offensive woes.