Not all .500 records are the same, and the Falcons’ 2-2 mark is a bit deceiving. Atlanta snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Week 2, then somehow managed to win in Week 4 without scoring an offensive touchdown.

It’s hard to find anything the Falcons are really good at. They’re in the middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and they rank 21st in EPA per play and 23rd in EPA per play allowed.

The Buccaneers’ biggest weakness through three games was the lack of a pass rush, but that got a little better last week when nose tackle Vita Vea returned for their win over the Eagles.

The result was six sacks of Jalen Hurts – a bad sign for Kirk Cousins and an Atlanta squad that shouldn’t be laying points against an opponent that scores with more frequency, commits turnovers at a lower rate and has a quarterback who is having a better season by nearly every meaningful metric.

We’ll back the Bucs (+1.5) on the road.

The Vikings’ fourth win in as many games might have ended with a closer score than it should have last week, but they were still dominant for three quarters against the Packers. Sam Darnold keeps proving doubters wrong, leading the NFL in passer rating, average yards per attempt, touchdown passes and touchdown percentage.

The Jets, on the other hand, took a major step back last week. They allowed five sacks of Aaron Rodgers, committed 10 penalties and didn’t score a touchdown in their sloppy home loss to the Broncos.

New York has been inconsistent and unreliable, whereas Minnesota ranks first in total DVOA, defensive DVOA and expected points added per play on defense.

On one side, Darnold seems to love head coach Kevin O’Connell. On the other side, Rodgers and his head coach Robert Saleh are starting to behave like that one couple everyone hates going on double dates with.

We’ll gladly give up less than a field goal and bet on the Vikings covering -2.5 on a neutral field.

Andy Dalton played credibly against his former team last week in a home loss to the Bengals. He gets another crack at a team he used to play for on Sunday in Chicago, even if you’d have to remind most Soldier Field attendees that, yes, he did once play for the Bears.

No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams made progress in Chicago’s win over the Rams last week, posting his highest completion percentage and passer ratings to date with zero interceptions.

The Bears might never approach the offensive potential they seemed to have during the preseason, but they also ran for a season-high 4.7 yards per carry against Los Angeles, showing improvement on the ground as well as through the air.

Chicago has covered the spread in five straight home games – the NFL’s longest active streak. The Panthers haven’t done enough since their quarterback switch for us to believe they’ll break that streak, so we’ll back the Bears (-4) as home favorites.

The ease with which the Ravens rolled over the Bills last Sunday night was striking, especially considering that Baltimore now plays its first division game against a Bengals team that’s winless at home this year and overflowing with defensive issues.

Cincinnati is last in the NFL in QB pressures per dropback and second to last in both pressures per dropback and run stop win rate. These are scary numbers to consider against any offense, especially one that leads the league in total yardage.

But the Bengals’ offense is starting to cook. Joe Burrow looks comfortable, their skill position players have started to play well and the offensive line just helped Burrow get through a full game without a sack for only the third time in his career.

It’s tempting to wager on the Ravens playing keepaway from Burrow and covering while laying less than a field goal, but Cincinnati has scored eight touchdowns and 77 points over its last two games with just one turnover.

Burrow is 14-8 as an underdog, he’s at home and his team is desperate. We’re taking the Bengals (+2.5) with the points.

The calls for the Patriots to switch to No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye at quarterback are growing in both volume and frequency given how gnarly their offense has looked the last two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins would gladly take Jacoby Brissett at this point given the troubles they’ve had since Tua Tagovailoa‘s Week 2 concussion. With Tyler Huntley playing quarterback in last Monday’s loss to the Titans, Miami’s offense had -18.65 expected points and a paltry 27% success rate.

This game has this season’s lowest Over/Under (35.5) to date, which is a reflection of how crummy these offenses are. But in a search for a reason, any reason, to back one of these teams, we’ve found that New England is second in special teams DVOA.

Patriots kicker Joey Slye has been more accurate in his field goal tries than Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders this year, and Slye hasn’t missed from beyond 50 yards – a claim Sanders can’t make. In a game that will likely feature more field goals than touchdowns, that could be the difference.

New England’s also at home, so we’ll lay the one point with the Patriots and not tell anyone.

This game is a matchup between two fan bases with polar opposite opinions about their quarterbacks.

Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels has stirred up optimism in Washington thanks to a record-setting start to his career. The Commanders rookie has the highest completion percentage (82.1%) ever for an NFL quarterback in their first four games, and he’s also shined on the ground with 218 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

The reverse is true in Cleveland, where Browns fans would do almost anything to be free of Deshaun Watson and his contract. The team’s issues aren’t limited to Watson, however, as the offensive line has allowed 10-plus pressures in every game and the defense has regressed, falling from first to 13th in success rate.

Cleveland should be getting more points this week, but since they’re not, we’ll wager against an underdog that’s dead last in offensive DVOA on the road. Give us Washington (-3.5) at home.

Entering Week 5, the Jaguars are the NFL’s only winless team. Jacksonville has a rudderless offense that’s the league’s second-worst in the red zone and a defense that no-showed in primetime against the Bills in Week 3, then stood by helplessly during a game-winning drive by the Texans last week.

And yet, they’re somehow favored this week.

Whether it’s Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson at quarterback this week, it’s hard not to back the Colts when they’re getting points and coming off a game where their offensive line had its way with the Steelers. On the flip side, Indianapolis has injuries all over the defensive line and Jonathan Taylor left last week’s game with an ankle injury.

But Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson has gone from a coach trying to save his job to one who looks like he knows he’s going to lose it. Maybe his team has one more spirited effort left in it, but we’ll wager on the Colts (+3) pulling off the road “upset.”

The Bills were walloped last Sunday night by the Ravens for their first loss of the season while the Texans scored a touchdown in the game’s final minute to avoid an embarrassing home loss to the Jaguars.

Houston’s three wins have each come by less than seven points, while only two teams have a better point differential than Buffalo.

Baltimore may have exposed the Bills’ weakness against the run, but the Texans are ill-equipped to exploit it considering they rank just 30th in rushing EPA and 28th in rushing success rate. Buffalo’s defense is dramatically better against the pass (second in yards per attempt) and C.J. Stroud’s on-target percentage has dropped nearly 20 points since the end of last season.

Josh Allen is 18-9-2 as an underdog, Houston’s defensive metrics are underwhelming, and the Bills have simply been a better team. We’ll roll with Buffalo (+1) as a slight road underdog.

These teams are both coming off nice defensive efforts in road wins last week. The Raiders held the Browns to 241 total yards in a home victory despite Maxx Crosby’s absence, while the Broncos became just the fifth team to hold an Aaron Rodgers-led offense without a touchdown.

Denver’s defense ranks first in sacks per pass play, second in red zone defense and third in both scoring defense and defensive efficiency. Unfortunately, the Broncos’ offense is mostly putrid, ranking next-to-last in success rate with the league’s most three-and-outs.

Las Vegas’ modest success running the ball against Cleveland is worth noting, but the Raiders still rank last in the NFL in rushing success rate. Gardner Minshew has held his own against defensive pressure, but the Broncos blitz more than any other team and the Raiders could be without Davante Adams for a second straight game.

This game has the second-lowest Over/Under (37.5) of the week, and neither side seems capable of a blowout. We’ll take the points in what should be a close, low-scoring matchup, so give us Las Vegas (+2.5) on the road.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Spread (49ers -7.5)
Both teams were part of blowouts last week, as the 49ers had a 17-point beating of the Patriots and the Cardinals suffered a 28-point home loss to the Commanders.

San Francisco’s injury issues remain a concern but it has owned Arizona recently, winning the last four head-to-head matchups by an average of 22 points.

The Cardinals have regressed since their lopsided Week 2 win over the Rams, scoring just 27 points in their last two games combined while allowing 403 rushing yards. Niners running back Jordan Mason rushed for 123 yards last week and has averaged over five yards per carry, topping 100 rushing yards in three of four games.

Kyler Murray has covered at nearly a 63% clip as an underdog, but Brock Purdy covers at close to a 68% rate when his team is favored. The spread is a bit hefty, but San Francisco’s offense should have its way.

We’ll lay the points and side with the 49ers (-7.5) at home.

The Packers fell to Minnesota in Jordan Love’s return last week because they couldn’t get out of their own way. Green Bay had four turnovers, two drives that ended with failed fourth down conversions and two missed field goals. Even so, they still lost by just two points and moved the ball with ease in the fourth quarter against the NFL’s top defense by DVOA.

Look for them to clean up those mistakes and build on that late-game momentum against the Rams, who scored just one touchdown last week in a road loss to the Bears.

For all of its injuries on offense, the major concern for Los Angeles is a defense that ranks among the bottom three teams in EPA per play, EPA per pass, EPA per rush and success rate. The Rams’ defensive line ranks last in adjusted yards, and their two outside cornerbacks are among the lowest-ranked in PFF’s coverage grades.

It’s obvious where we’re going here – our money is on the Packers (-3).

The Giants will have a significant rest advantage coming off a home Thursday night game while the Seahawks just played a wild Monday night road game, losing in Detroit. Yet New York is getting less than a touchdown this week on the road.

It’s not too difficult to understand why when you see that the Giants’ offensive success rate (35.5) is on track to be the franchise’s worst this century. New York ranks 30th in offensive DVOA with a running game that’s dead last in yards per rushing attempt.

Seattle’s defense is likely not as good as it looked when it was feasting on the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins, but it’s likely not as terrible as it looked when the Lions were punching them in the mouth last week.

Even if Detroit revealed some of Seattle’s weaknesses, the Giants aren’t good enough to follow their blueprint, even with extra time to prepare. We’ll bet on the Seahawks (-6) at home.

The Steelers allowed the Colts to score on their first three drives last week. Besides that, Pittsburgh has allowed 36 points on its opponents’ other 39 drives this season and ranks first in defensive EPA per play.

The Cowboys may have hushed some doubters with their Thursday night road victory over the Giants last week, but the win didn’t come as easily as it should have. It also came at a cost, as they lost both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence to injuries. Parsons was spotted using a knee scooter earlier this week while Lawrence has already been placed on injured reserve.

With Dallas’ pass rush compromised, Justin Fields has a chance to build on last week’s showing against Indianapolis. He overcame a slow start and a fumble with three second-half touchdown drives, finishing with 321 passing yards, 55 rushing yards and a passer rating of 104.0. Fields is completing over 70% of his passes and continues to improve across nearly every passing metric.

Mike Tomlin’s teams are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine primetime games. We’ll lay the points and take the Steelers (-2.5) at home.

The defending Super Bowl champions remain undefeated and have covered the spread in three of their four wins, but they’re down another weapon with Rashee Rice’s ACL injury. Their path to 4-0 hasn’t been easy, as they’ve come perilously close to losing (and not covering) on multiple occasions.

The Saints were the most talked-about team in the NFL after their hot start through the first two weeks, but that conversation has changed after consecutive losses, including last week’s frustrating defeat to the Falcons.

That said, this is still a decent matchup for New Orleans. The Saints have PFF’s highest-graded quarterback, the league’s best red zone defense and are fifth defensively in expected points added per pass.

This number is a little too juicy not to take the points, especially considering Patrick Mahomes covers just 46% of the time when his team is favored by more than a field goal. We’ll side with New Orleans (+5.5) at Arrowhead.

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images.