NFL betting tips: Week 7

2pts Patriots @ Jaguars – over 41.5 total points at 17/20 (General)

2pts Detroit Lions to beat Minnesota Vikings at 11/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Kansas City Chiefs to beat San Francisco 49ers at 11/10 (Paddy Power)

1pt Detroit Lions/Kansas City Chiefs both to win at 17/5 (Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• Sunday 1430 BST, live on Sky Sports

The final London game of the season isn’t likely to be a classic on Sunday, but I like the over regardless.

Requiring points from two teams that have combined for just two wins in 12 games won’t strike you immediately as a smart option, but it’s the leaky defences of both teams that swing me in favour of the over being hit.

The recent trends work in our favour too. Games featuring the Patriots have hit the required points mark twice in the last three weeks and Jaguars games have hit in three of the last four. Both were involved in high-scoring defeats last time out, too.

Clearly neither team is an offensive behemoth but Jacksonville score a fairly respectable 18.8 points per game – better than eight other NFL teams – and although the Patriots have only averaged 13.8 thus far in 2024, the quarterback switch to Drake Maye last week seemed to spark some life into the New England offence and there were definite positives to take from the 21 points they posted against a strong and clearly superior Houston outfit.

Crucially, Wembley Stadium is about to be treated to two frankly terrible defences. Both teams allow more than 350 offensive yards per game, both allow 44% of third downs to be converted by the opposition and both rank in the bottom half of the league for points allowed. In the case of the Jaguars, only the Panthers have allowed more points this season.

These two defences simply can’t get off the field effectively and they each represent one of the simplest challenges either offence will face this season. If New England were able to put up 21 points against Houston, you’d fancy their chances of picking up a few more this weekend, particularly with how poorly Jacksonville were able to deal with rookie Caleb Williams last weekend at Tottenham.

42 points is an achievable mark and even the slightest spark of offence from two undeniably talented quarterbacks should put us in good stead in the early kick-off.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

• Sunday 1800 BST, live on Sky Sports

What a game we have in store in Minnesota, where an NFC North clash for the ages sees the undefeated Vikings host the 4-1 Detroit Lions.

The Vikes have been nothing short of tremendous so far and they’re excellent value for their 5-0 record, but I think this is the week their streak ends.

Despite losing Aidan Hutchinson to a truly awful injury in Dallas last time out, the Lions simply humiliated the Cowboys. The 47-9 scoreline has predictably been used as a stick with which to beat the Dallas franchise, but ultimately it shows where the Lions are in 2024. This is a serious, serious football team and make no mistake about it, they are a Super Bowl contender.

The strength of Detroit’s offence is built on their excellent running back tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs – who rushed for a combined 143 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries in that game – but the efforts of quarterback Jared Goff shouldn’t be downplayed.

The once #1 overall pick has attempted 66 passes over his last three games and he’s completed all but 12 of them. He is the model of consistency right now and he’s getting the best of the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in the passing game.

Minnesota have beaten some good teams within their five-game winning streak, but I can’t honestly say any have been as strong as Detroit feel right now.

The Lions have the advantage of having played in some similar high-pressure situations over the last couple of years whereas many of these Vikings – particularly quarterback Sam Darnold – are riding the crest of the wave and perhaps aren’t quite as battle-hardened just yet.

Detroit have won three straight against Minnesota and although I don’t think they’ll get anything close to an easy ride, I love the value of the in-form betting underdog in what could be an absolute classic in Minneapolis.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

• Sunday 2125 BST, live on Sky Sports

Patrick Mahomes is an underdog this week, and we know what that means.

The San Francisco 49ers possess a very talented roster and they will have home advantage on Sunday evening, but the Chiefs at even money to win a game is just impossible to ignore.

Mahomes’ record as an underdog in the NFL is 11-1-1 against the spread and 10-3 outright. He’s won a massive 76% of games in which the bookmakers have doubted him and, of course, he got the victory over the 49ers as a two-point underdog in the biggest game of all in February.

The Chiefs are also coming off a bye week, which will have them feeling rested after a start to the season that wasn’t flawless, but still without defeat.

On the other hand, San Francisco will also have to deal with potentially being down to their third-string running back. Kyle Shanahan’s system won’t take a huge hit due to the possible absence of Jordan Mason – after all, even Mason was a relative unknown just a few weeks ago – but it’s a factor the Niners will have to address and certainly one that Kansas City will be pleased with.

Shanahan has always faced problems when encountering Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo and Kansas City. He’s yet to record a victory against the Chiefs as 49ers head coach and the statistic is only amplified due to the high-calibre occasions on which they’ve met.

Even if Shanahan is the most mentally strong coach in the league, losing two Super Bowls to essentially the same outfit – complete with the same quarterback and coaching staff – hurts. It hurts bad.

Spagnuolo has a knack of cooking up a defensive scheme that just negates the 49ers’ potent offence enough and the fact he’s had two weeks to focus on this game will have been a blessing.

The Chiefs’ offence haven’t been at their absolute explosive best, but even their base level has seen them rack up a sustainable 23.6 points per game and the 100-yard performances of Kareem Hunt and Juju Smith-Schuster last time out were ominous. They started slow last season before hitting their stride, and I think we’re going to see the same again.

They’re facing a San Francisco defence that has really flattered to deceive in 2024. Usually one of the league’s top units, they are no longer cracking the top ten in terms of points allowed (interestingly, KC are outperforming them, ranked #6) and they’re generally allowing more yardage per game than during their 2023 NFC Championship run.

Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are superstars, but the unit around them is either injured or underperforming in respect of their high standards. That is not a scenario you want when Patrick Mahomes is coming to town, refreshed and with a chip on his shoulder.

Posted at 0925 BST on 19/10/24

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