On 21 October, senator Sérgio Petecão proposed Bill 4,031/2024 to ban online betting in Brazil over concerns it is driving fiscal debt and gambling addiction.

The bill is the latest in a string of initiatives by politicians to restrict online betting in Brazil, which is set to launch its legal market on 1 January 2025.

Manssur played a key role in Brazil passing its online betting legislation over the line, before he left his position as an advisor in February of this year, subsequently becoming a partner at law firm CSMV Advogados.

With 269 companies having so far applied for a betting license ahead of the January launch, Manssur says there is clear evidence the industry supports the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets’ (SPA) regulations and deems them sufficient in protecting players.

In an op-ed for Poder 360 dated 30 October, Manssur said banning betting would mean years of hard work on the legalisation would be wasted and risk damaging Brazil’s reputation globally.

“Banning betting now, even before companies are authorised or soon after, and especially before the practical results of regulation are verified, would mean that the entire process put in place over the last two years would have been for nothing and all the effort and resources of companies interested in operating in the regulated market to establish themselves in Brazil would have been absolutely in vain,” Manssur explained.

“Furthermore, it would send the message that all the regulatory policy widely discussed between the government and Congress would have been a big ‘make-believe’.  What image of Brazil’s legal security would be conveyed to the world?”

Would Brazil banning betting do more harm than good?

Another of Manssur’s points related to the economic and social impacts of banning sports betting in Brazil, including the loss of jobs in a market the International Betting Integrity Association predicts could reach $34 billion (£26.8 billion/€31.1 billion) in turnover by 2028.

Manssur also warns prohibition doesn’t necessarily lead to a downturn of usage, pointing to the United States’ ban on alcohol between 1920 and 1933 and the consequential spike towards “rampant” drinking.

Illegal betting activity would likely increase and lead to a loss of tax contributions to the state.

“The effectiveness of a simple prohibition as a means of preventing people from becoming addicted to gambling, for example, is absolutely debatable,” Manssur declared.

“And what about the hundreds of thousands of jobs already created in the country in this segment? Will they simply be lost, without us knowing whether regulation could effectively combat negative externalities?”

Manssur’s confidence in the regulation

The SPA has published extensive regulations ahead of the market launch, including a ban on the use of credit cards for betting and restrictions on advertising.

The SPA has observed gambling regulations across the globe and aimed to pick and choose the best from each.

As such, Manssur believes Brazil’s regulations are now considered among the “most modern and restrictive” in the world, claiming strong regulations will lead to “much more significant results” than simply banning betting.

“Proper regulation reduces cases of addiction, creates jobs and increases the country’s revenue,” he added.

Manssur also highlighted the long delay between the initial signing of legalisation to allow betting in 2018 and the final senate approval in December 2023 as a reason for the recent concerns over consumer welfare and black market activity.