In this guide to the Irish Election 2024, we break all of this down while also highlighting the Irish Election odds to see who is likely to be the big winner on Friday. 

📊 Irish General Elections odds

As I mentioned in the introduction, 2024 has been the year of anti-incumbency elections. The Conservatives, the Democrats, and En Marche have all been left with bloody noses, leaving the Irish ruling parties with plenty to worry about in Friday’s election. 

The unpredictable nature of recent elections has led to an increased interest in the Irish election from a betting perspective. Key markets such as the Taoiseach after the election, the most seats, and the winner of the popular vote will all attract attention from bookmakers and punters alike.

In this guide, I explore the key markets while also highlighting the likely outcomes and their odds. 

🤔 Taoiseach after the next Irish General Election – Who will be Taoiseach next?

The big question of Friday’s election is who will be the country’s Taoiseach when the dust has settled. The current Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition has seen the position rotated during the term, and I expect we will see a similar agreement following this week’s election results.

Let’s take a look at the three major players in contention to be Taoiseach. 

Simon Harris

Simon Harris is the incumbent Taoiseach, and all odds point towards him holding onto his position. The Fine Gael leader assumed office in April following Leo Varadkar’s resignation.

As they have done over the last four years, Fine Gael is likely going to need to rotate the position with Fianna Fáil and Michael Martin, but Harris is most likely to retain it initially.

🏛️ Back Simon Harris to become the next Taoiseach at 8/11 with BoyleSports 🏛️

Micheal Martin

As I’ve already mentioned, Fine Gael will likely need to form a coalition with Michael Martin’s Fianna Fáil once again. As such, the current leader of Fianna Fáil could take over the role at the beginning of the term, depending on how the election plays out.

The current Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs could find himself back at the head of the table after Friday’s votes, but it is more likely he will have to wait until the next rotation.

🏛️ Back Michael Martin to be the next Taoiseach at 11/10 with BetVictor 🏛️ 

Mary Lou McDonald

Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Fien made headlines in the 2020 election when it took home the popular vote and signalled a wave of change across the country. However, a lot has changed in the last four years, and there’s an argument to be made that McDonald’s party have struggled to maintain that momentum.

Immigration has become a major talking point in Ireland over the last four years, with the Ukrainian war and the refugee crisis both impacting the country. McDonald’s appeal has dwindled a little, and it remains to be seen whether they can regain the ground they have lost in such a short election campaign. 

Even if she were to repeat her electoral success of 2020, the chances of her becoming the first female Taoiseach are slim, with a coalition between the two major parties likely to keep her out of office.

The party’s controversial past and stances have also made them an unlikely bed-fellow for smaller parties looking to make up a government.

🏛️ Back Mary Lou McDonald to be the next Taoiseach at 7/1 with talkSPORT BET 🏛️

🪑 Next Irish election odds – Most seats

There are 174 seats up for grabs across 143 seats when Ireland goes to the polls on Friday. To secure a majority, a party will need to win 88 seats. While this is an extremely unlikely outcome, the party with the most seats will be given the chance to form a government after the results have been counted.

Let’s take a look at the parties running in Friday’s election and analyse their chances. 

Fine Gael

Fine Gael has seen a jump in popularity since the appointment of Simon Harris in April, with Harris providing the perfect antidote for Leo Varadkar’s dwindling popularity.

Harris’s party is running on a manifesto built on considerable investment into public services, with the Taoiseach promising upwards of €52bn in investments. This, he promises, will be put into the healthcare system, education, building over 300,000 houses by 2030, and several other big schemes.

He has also promised to keep lower-paying workers outside the higher-tax brackets by increasing them yearly, which is likely to appeal to many with the current cost-of-living crisis. Fine Gael is currently the favourite to secure the most seats, with many polls putting them around the 45-50 seat mark.

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Fianna Fáil

Fianna Fáil won the most seats at the last Irish election in 2020, but they are expected to lose out in this election to their coalition partners narrowly.

Fianna Fáil is running on a manifesto built around helping families tackle the increased cost of living in the country while also expanding homebuilding, investing heavily in health and education, and reducing the national debt.

🪑 Back Michael Martin’s party to win the most seats at 6/4 with BetVictor 🪑

Sinn Féin

All eyes will be on Sinn Féin when the polls close on Friday night. Following their spectacular performance in the last election, Mary Lou McDonald’s party has slumped somewhat over the last four years, and there is every chance they will get fewer than the 37 seats they received in 2020. 

Immigration, the housing crisis, and the rising cost of living are all proving to be defining issues of the election. The party finds itself in a difficult position, with its left-wing social policies appealing to young, socially-conscious urban voters.

However, its pro-immigration stance damaged its core vote of working-class people struggling with the cost-of-living crisis. The Dublin riots of 2023 have also impacted the party’s overall image. I anticipate a drop in seats for the party.

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Labour

The Irish Labour Party was, for some time, the third most popular party in the country. The party went into government with Fine Gael in 2011 and paid the price in the 2016 election.

Similar to the Liberal Democrats in the UK, many who voted for the party felt betrayed by their pro-austerity policies, and they have yet to recover from this.

The party secured six seats at the last election, and despite a change in leadership, with Ivana Bacik now steering the ship, most projections are estimating it will secure a similar number this time around.

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Green

After a successful campaign in 2020, the Green Party became the minor party helping prop up the new Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition. The party, run by Roderic O’Gorman, strongly emphasises the environment, promising to invest heavily in ‘energy efficient measures’ while also making significant investments in the country’s public transport systems.

They have also proposed radical changes to the work-week in Ireland, with a Citizen’s Assembly to establish the introduction of a four-day week. The party won 12 seats in the last election, but many polls point to it underperforming this time.

A tough relationship with the two leading parties and a feeling that the party’s priorities may not ease the cost of living has seen a dip in popularity.

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Independent Ireland

Independent Ireland is the newest party standing in this election, with the party being founded in November last year. Leader Michael Collins says he wants to offer voters an alternative to the current government and an option for those who don’t want to support Sinn Féin.

The party is considered right-wing and has been critical of immigration in its campaign. Leader Michael Collins has also said he is firmly anti-abortion.

🪑 Back Independent Ireland to get the most seats at 150/1 BoyleSports 🪑

🤝 Other minor parties for the next General election in Ireland

Aside from the major players, several minor parties will also be contesting the next General Election in Ireland. While these parties bring diverse perspectives to the table, their odds of securing significant influence remain very low.

Here’s a look at some of these smaller contenders and their current standing in the race.

Aontú

Aontú sits on the conservative right side of Irish politics, promoting socially conservative views and strong Irish republican stances. The party’s sole seat in the Dáil was won by leader Peadar Tóibín in 2020, and it is unlikely they will claim any more this time.

Tóibín is known for his tough anti-abortion stance and traditional family values, which may attract fringe voters but is not going to hand them any new seats. Aontú have next to no chance of landing the most seats at the election, and this is reflected in their 1,000/1 odds with Boylesports. 

Social Democrats

The Social Democrats are a left-wing party led by Holly Cairns. The party is the only major party not to promise tax cuts, with the party arguing that promising both tax cuts and investment in public services is counter-intuitive.

The party has promised heavy investment into public services and the welfare state, promising additional funding for disability services, the introduction of a rent-reference system, and the introduction of a wealth tax levied at 0.5% on assets over €1 million.

Like other minor parties, it has a core vote but will struggle to make huge gains in this election. This is reflected in their odds of 1,000/1 with Boylesports. 

The Irish People

The Irish People, also known as the National Alliance, is a right-wing party that welcomes independent candidates. The party has a strong nationalist stance and is known for its anti-immigration rhetoric and conservative social values. 

Irish Freedom

Irish Freedom is a far-right, eurosceptic party focused on withdrawing Ireland from the European Union. Despite its anti-immigration stance and Irish-first policies, the party has very little support across the country and is not expected to make any significant impact at the election. 

PBP – Solidarity

People Before Profit – Solidarity, as its name probably suggests, is a left-wing socialist party that currently holds five seats in the Dáil. The party’s manifesto promises to provide affordable housing, tackle inequality, defend Irish neutrality, protect refugees, and stand with Palestine. Many pundits expect it to deliver a similar performance to what it did in 2020, with the party having a strong base but struggling to attract outside voters.

Rabharta 

Rabharta is a minor left-wing party whose outlook is described as ‘eco-socialist’. The party was established by Lorna Bogue and Liam Sinclair, two former members of the Green Party. The party shares many of the same values as the Greens, wanting to put people and the environment before profit and businesses. 

🏛️ Government after the next General Election

The Irish voting system makes it extremely difficult for any party to get the required seats to take control of the government outright. The following are the most likely outcomes of this week’s election. 

Fine Gael/ Fianna Fáil

This is the outcome I am anticipating the most. The two leading parties in Ireland historically joined forces to keep Sinn Féin out of power in 2020.

While I expect Sinn Féin to perform slightly worse in this election, their presence will still mean the two main parties need to join forces to reach the newly required 88 seats to form a government. Unlike 2020, however, I have a feeling they will have enough between them not to require the involvement of a third minor party.

Fine Gael/ Fianna Fáil/Independents

If the two leading parties do require additional seats to prop up their government, then they may look to the Independents to do so.

Fine Gael/ Fianna Fáil/Labour 

If Fine Gael/ Fianna Fáil fails to need more seats, and the Independents can’t offer enough to form a coalition; all current polling points towards Labour being the third party to prop them up, replacing the Greens.

Tension has been high with the Greens and the bigger parties, and there is every chance that Simon Harris and Michael Martin look to Labour to help form a government.

Sinn Fien/Labour/Social Democrats/PBP Solidarity/Green

The much-discussed left alliance is the third most popular outcome with the bookies. In this instance, the government would be led by Sinn Fien, and while it is not entirely impossible, it is an outcome I can not see. Even if Sinn Fien could convince the other parties to get on board, which feels unlikely, it would still require Mary Lou McDonald’s party to out-perform their 2020 performance.

The polls all suggest this is unlikely, and if they were to get in the 20s, they would need the other parties to make significant gains to make this a reality.

Fine Gael/ Fianna Fáil/Green

The current coalition does not look like it will be the one to make up the next government. Tension is high between the two big parties and The Greens, and polls also suggest that The Greens are likely to drop a significant number of their 12 seats.

With the cost-of-living crisis looming large and immigration being a major topic, the Green’s politics are not likely to be as popular as they were four years ago.

📅 When Is the Irish Election?

The Irish general election will take place on Friday November 29th, with the results to be counted overnight after voting closes. 

🗳️ How to vote in the elections in the Republic of Ireland

1. Firstly, you will need to check you are eligible to vote in the Irish election. 
2. If you are eligible, you will then need to register to vote. If you are already registered, you should check to ensure your details are up to date. 
3. A polling card will be sent to your house before the election. 
4. On the day of the election, arrive at the polling station with a form of ID. You will be asked for your name and address. 
5. Once this has been verified, you will handed a ballot paper. Make sure they are stamped, otherwise your vote will not be valid. 
6. The Irish voting system uses Proportional Representation – Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV). This means that you can choose as many candidates as you like in order of preference. You can put a 1 next to your first choice, 2 next to your second, and so on. 
7. When you have voted, fold your ballot and place it into the ballot box. 

❓ FAQ about the Irish elections odds

The Irish Election is a matter of days away, so let’s take a look at some of the most common questions people have about how to bet on the Irish election, the Irish Election 2024 odds, and more. 

1. Who are the favourites to win in the next Irish elections, according to the odds?

The most favoured outcome by the bookies is the continued presence of a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition of some kind. The current Irish Election odds point towards Fine Gael narrowly getting more seats than Fianna Fáil, but neither having anywhere near enough to form a government on its own. 

2. What are the odds for the next Taoiseach after the Irish General Election?

Simon Harris is the current favourite to remain as Taoiseach after the general election. He is available at 3/4 or similar prices with most top Irish bookmakers. 

3. Which party is leading in the odds to secure the most seats?

Fine Gael is the party fancied to take the most seats by top Irish online bookmakers. However, bookies do not anticipate them having anywhere near enough seats to form a government. 

4. When will the next Irish General Election take place?

After the Irish Election on November 29th 2024, the next general election will take place within five years. 

5. Where can I track odds and results for the next Irish General Election?

All of the top Irish bookmakers listed in this guide to the Irish election 2024 will offer a wide range of betting markets for the Irish election.

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