The first Tuesday in November is almost here and in Australia, that means one thing: Melbourne Cup Day.

First run in 1861, the Melbourne Cup is the biggest horse race in the land Down Under and is one of the most significant annual sporting events in the country. In Melbourne, Tuesday is a public holiday and a sell-out crowd is expected to descend on Flemington. Elsewhere, thousands of people will take the day off work and attend a local race meeting, have a wager on the race or take part in an office sweep.

Since Vintage Crop won the Cup for Dermot Weld and Michael Kinane in 1993, the Cup has become an international event. This year, horses from Britain, Ireland and Japan will compete in the two-mile handicap, while three Hong Kong based jockeys will also fly in to ride in the race.

A record four female jockeys will also be in the saddle for the race that stops the nation, including British riders Rachel King and Hollie Doyle, as well as local superstar, Jamie Kah.

Before we begin, we need to talk about our friend Jan

One of the major talking points leading into this year’s Melbourne has been the scratching of Aidan O’Brien’s unbeaten St Leger winner, Jan Brueghel, which has ignited fierce debate on either side of the globe. I’m not here to pick fights with my British and Irish friends, however, I feel it’s worth raising a couple of points that may have been lost in the discussion on this.

The Melbourne Cup is the three-minute shop window that racing has to showcase itself to the general public, and what happens in the race is assumed to be the norm in racing generally for those outside the sport’s core fans. In an age where social licence and equine welfare are of the utmost importance, the racing industry in this country can’t afford to have horses breaking down in the Melbourne Cup, which happened to O’Brien’s Cliffsofmoher and Anthony Van Dyck, while before that, Verema and Red Cadeaux suffered catastrophic injuries in the race.

As a result, Racing Victoria introduced strict veterinary protocols in 2021 for horses competing in the race, and the Cup has been incident free ever since. Yet the authorities are right in not resting on their laurels, as another fatality in the Cup would cause serious harm to racing in the eyes of the public and as a result, all the precautions currently taken are necessary.

Although there has been a school of thought that the European visitors have been deliberately targeted with the protocols, it’s hard to argue that this is the case when locally trained gallopers Muramasa and Brayden Star were both withdrawn from the Cup due to failing their vet checks, as was New Zealand stayer Mahrajaan.

Let’s hope that we see Aidan O’Brien back for the Melbourne Cup in the future; we still want to see star stayers like Vintage Crop, Dunaden and Cross Counter competing in the race, but more importantly, we want the Cup to be a safe race that the sport can be proud of showcasing to those from all walks of life.

Alright, now let’s get to the task of finding the winner of this year’s Melbourne Cup.

Redemption for Willie

While Aidan O’Brien won’t be involved in the Melbourne Cup this year, the luck could still be with the Irish thanks to Willie Mullins and his two runners: Vauban and Absurde.

The pair, particularly Vauban, were highly fancied in last year’s edition of the race but failed, Vauban finishing 14th and Absurde faring slightly better in 7th. Mullins has changed his approach to training them for the race this time around, flying them to Melbourne closer to Cup Day than last year, having them fit and ready to go when they landed here, and only bringing them to Flemington on race day, as opposed to twelve months ago where there was a sense that they ran their race in a track gallop a week out from the big day.

Vauban brings the classiest staying form in the race, winning the Lonsdale Cup at York and putting in solid performances behind top class stayer Kyprios in the Gold Cup and most recently in the Irish St. Leger. Absurde shouldn’t be ignored either, with Mullins describing him as an improving horse who is maturing mentally, and he was a dominant winner at Chester last time out.

Both horses enjoyed the luck of the draw on Saturday night, where Vauban was allocated barrier 11 and Absurde barrier seven, making the tasks of William Buick and Kerrin McEvoy respectively more straightforward. This was made even more important after the main local contender, Buckaroo, drew barrier 21, in a race that lacks depth.

Victory in the Melbourne Cup would cap off a remarkable 2024 for Mullins, who won the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Grand National earlier this year, and he described Flemington’s showpiece event as the biggest flat race in the world that he could win with the kind of horses that he buys.

British challengers to make an impact

One of the great aspects of international racing is that form from one part of the world doesn’t always translate to another jurisdiction, with some horses acclimatising to new climates and racing styles better than others.

While Vauban might have the class edge, Onesmoothoperator and Sea King have proven that they’ve settled into life in Australia well with their wins in key lead up races the Geelong Cup and Bendigo Cup respectively. Onesmoothoperator was particularly impressive at Geelong, as he moved into the race well and then quickened up strongly to score off a modest tempo, which could be a useful attribute on Tuesday, as there doesn’t appear to be an abundance of pace in the race.

As for the Harry Eustace trained Sea King, he was able to sustain a long run to take out the Bendigo Cup and the horses that have won that race in recent years have gone on to run well in the Melbourne Cup six days later, albeit without winning.

Should Sea King salute in the Melbourne Cup, it would be the second time that the Eustace family have won the race, with Harry’s brother David winning it in 2022 with Gold Trip.

The Locals

Buckaroo is the logical favourite for the race and ticks the key local boxes for the Melbourne Cup. Formerly trained in Ireland by Joseph O’Brien, Buckaroo is now prepared by Chris Waller and has found his best form this spring as a gelding. He won the Group One Underwood Stakes at Caulfield three starts ago, before going on to finish second to Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes, who went on to annihilate her rivals in the Cox Plate.

At his latest run, Buckaroo ran second in the main lead up race to the Melbourne Cup, the Caulfield Cup, where he got home strongly, an encouraging sign for a horse stepping up to 3200m. Barrier 21 does throw a spanner in the works though, as he could be forced to settle back in the run and need luck in running to play a prominent role in the finish.

Godolphin’s mare Zardozi looks to have had the ideal preparation for Tuesday’s assignment. An Oaks winner last year, the James Cummings trained stayer got home creditably in the Caulfield Cup, but then caught thew eye with her fast finishing fifth in the Empire Rose Stakes over 1600m on Saturday.

Cummings may have followed a proven formula from his grandfather Bart, who won twelve Melbourne Cups and had a rule that his Cup horses should run on Derby Day before fronting up for their grand final on the Tuesday. Hong Kong based jockey Andrea Atzeni will fly to Melbourne to ride Zardozi, having got to know her initially in the Caulfield Cup.

Final analysis

For me, it all points to VAUBAN.

Willie Mullins is one of the world’s great trainers and has put together a different plan for him ahead of this year’s race as he bids to show his best at Flemington and learn from the mistakes made in 2023. He was well fancied to win last year, it’s a weaker field this time around and if anything, he’s in better form this time.

Zardozi appears set to produce a peak performance, she’s been trained to the minute, has a lightweight and a good barrier draw.

Onesmoothoperator looked terrific at Geelong, he too has a lightweight, a top jockey in Craig Williams aboard and has the right racing style to suit how this race is likely to unfold.

Buckaroo is the best credentialled of the local gallopers, but the draw is tricky and he’s no certainty to see out the two-mile distance. Top Victorian trainer Ciaron Maher has four runners in the race and has spoken positively about Okita Soushi’s chances, so he could be one to consider from an each-way perspective.

Prediction:

1. VAUBAN

14. Zardozi

13. Onesmoothoperator

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