• NFL TD props for the early games of Week 17 are available at all major sportsbooks
• I have put together my favorite NFL touchdown picks for Christmas Day NFL games and Boxing Day; I will be adding more as the week progresses
• See the players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 17 below!

With the NFL really spreading Week 17 out across multiple days – games played on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday – I have taken an early deep dive into the slate to find my favorite anytime TD scorer picks. For now, I have only included TD predictions for the first three games of the week, partly because I am waiting on some injury updates for Saturday games and partly because sportsbooks haven’t released TD odds for Sunday games yet, but will be adding more as the week goes on.

After some incredibly bad TD luck in early December, I went 7-3 on my TD picks last week to win 4.55 units. Here’s how I plan to keep the momentum going!

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 17

At the moment, I have three players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 17. But there will be plenty more added as the week progresses. All of the picks above are half-unit bets, except for Derrick Henry, who is a full unit.

If you wanted to take an early swing at the Saturday games, I am leaning towards Gus Edwards to score against the Patriots, but want to make sure JK Dobbins isn’t playing first, and like Tee Higgins to score against the Broncos, but am waiting to hear on whether Riley Moss will be returning for Denver.

Here’s my analysis on each of the anytime TD picks above!

Xavier Worthy

After he cashed for me last week, I’m coming back to Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown in Week 17. Everything I said last week seemed accurate, and I don’t think that’s going to change on a very short week. Worthy is becoming more and more involved in the Chiefs offense, seeing 11 targets in each of their last two games, while also adding three rushing attempts in each of them.

Worthy has taken advantage of those opportunities, scoring a touchdown in both games. He has also seen his snap counts rise significantly over the last three weeks, being on the field for at least 80% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps in each of them. That’s a number he had not reached prior to this three-game stretch.

In regards to his touchdown probabilities, what’s most encouraging about the last two games is that he has seen eight red zone looks, which is tied for 7th-most in the NFL. The Chiefs are really starting to take advantage of his speed in the red zone, and it’s paying off for them.

I think they’ll need his speed again in Week 17 when they play a tough Steelers defense that ranks sixth in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed.

• Pick: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+260 at FanDuel)

Derrick Henry

I’m not one to put a ton of stock into “due factor,” but Derrick Henry is so due to score a TD. After scoring a touchdown in each of his first 11 games as a Raven, totaling 15 in that span, he has been held out of the endzone in four straight games.

But he has played some defenses who are very tough against the run, especially in the red zone, in that time. The Eagles have only allowed nine rushing touchdowns, the Chargers have only allowed seven (fewest in the NFL), and the Steelers have allowed 13 – Lamar Jackson just decided he was throwing all the TDs against the Giants.

Henry’s red zone looks have gone down a little, dropping from 3.64 in his first 11 games to 3.0 in his last four. He has still handled 22+ touches in three of the last four, though. So, the volume is still there. Throw him against a defense that ranks sixth-worst in opponent red zone TD%, and I like him to get back into the endzone.

The Texans have also only allowed nine rushing TDs, while giving up 28 through the air, but I cannot say no to this price on Henry.

• Pick: Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-160 at DraftKings)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

While I think Kenneth Walker is the most likely player to score a touchdown in this game, his odds are too short for a guy who has been held out of the endzone in five of his last six. So, I’m moving to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who I believe presents the best value to score a TD in this game.

JSN is third on the Seahawks with six touchdowns this season, but only has a TD in five of 15 games. However, he (as well as the Seahawks offense) got off to a slow start, only scoring one touchdown in the first eight games. The second-year pro has scored a touchdown in four of his last seven games, with five total TDs in that span. He has also seen a massive 27.1% of the team’s red zone targets this year.

The Bears have only given up 17 touchdowns through the air, but rank second-last in net yards allowed per pass attempt. Plus, they have given up 30+ points in each of their three games since firing Matt Eberflus, and allowed six passing touchdowns in those games.

• Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+170 at DraftKings)