TCL will offer market analysis in the US gambling space in The Cashout every Friday to paid subscribers, along with a news roundup for free subscribers. The weekly post will focus on metrics in the US market, as well as regulatory and legal developments as events warrant.

How bad is Q4 going to be for US sportsbooks? The early December numbers point to the idea that this is far from just a problem for FanDuel, which warned the market that it was revising guidance down for the US for FY 2024.

But first, here’s the Friday roundup:

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The fourth quarter isn’t going to be great. The first inkling was a bad October (paywall) because of sports bettors losing less money than they usually do “customer-friendly results.” Now we’re seeing that trend continue later in the year, as FanDuel parent company Flutter told the market that they will miss on revenue because of Q4.

You can spin the run of losses positively — namely that it’s not terrible if sports bettors win sometimes, and that the same volatility that created the bad results for sportsbooks is a feature (not a bug) that can drive higher revenues in the long term.