Bo Nix or Jayden Daniels: Which rookie quarterback is more impressive?
Sports Seriously’s Mackenzie Salmon asks Tyler Dragon about the rookie quarterbacks that are heading into Wildcard Weekend.
Sports Seriously
Moving tends to be a stressful experience.
There are countless boxes to pack, services to transfer, address changes to put in and so much more. It puts leaving a hotel room to shame. Yet the finality of leaving is where most of that anxiety comes from. What happens if you leave a prized possession behind? What if someone sends an important letter to the wrong address?
On the other hand, there are questions about your neighbors and whether the grass is greener on the other side.
This year’s Denver Broncos are the new kids on the block but aren’t looking to rent. They’re here to buy and stay a while. Armed with a standout rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, and a roster on the rise despite mountains of dead cap space, Denver promises to be a threat for years to come.
While the Buffalo Bills aren’t an old team, they’ve been there and done that. Outside of reaching the Super Bowl, Buffalo is familiar with the AFC path in the postseason and falling short. They’ve been relegated to New York Knicks, Detroit Pistons, Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz of the Michael Jordan era. The Kansas City Chiefs’ dynasty has prevented Josh Allen’s team from reaching the mountaintop.
They’ll try to complete the climb again this year, but the new guys stand in their way. Here’s a look at the top player props and anytime TD scorers to back in the Bills and Broncos wild card matchup.
NFL best bets today: Bills vs. Broncos playoffs
All odds are via BetMGM as of Friday.
Josh Allen OVER 41.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Broncos have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball in this wild-card duel, meaning life won’t be as easy for Allen on Sunday. However, Denver is a man coverage-heavy unit that will open up running lanes for the Buffalo quarterback. Allen hasn’t needed to run as often thanks to some blowout victories, but he should have some more urgency in what projects as a closer game.
The quarterback’s playoff history tells us that Allen will have his running shoes on, going over this number in 7-of-10 postseason games and posting an average of 56.3 yards per game, up from 37.3 in the regular season. It’s no secret that the Bills go as Allen goes, and we’d much rather rely on the potential league MVP than figure out which pass-catcher will get the opportunities on Sunday.
Bo Nix OVER 26.5 rushing yards (-115)
It seems quarterbacks tend to run more in the playoffs and the statistics back that up. The position has posted 8.8 rushing yards per game in the postseason all-time, versus just 7.6 in the regular season, according to StatMuse. While we’ll need Nix to do more than that on Sunday, Allen’s prop showed why we’re confident in the over. Nix hasn’t played like a rookie this season and we won’t expect him to be any different in Buffalo.
The quarterback also averages 28 rushing yards per game on the road, compared to just 22.3 at home. In his last two games, both of which profiled as playoff contests for a Broncos team needing a win, Nix averaged 39 yards per game. Expect him to show off his wheels in western New York.
Marvin Mims Jr. anytime TD (+300)
Mims has broken out over the latter half of the season and has four touchdowns in his last two games. All six of his scores have come in the last seven. Courtland Sutton is still the clear No. 1 receiver, but Mims has been making a consistent impact. Since we’re not playing running back roulette with this backfield, we’ll take a shot on the receiver to continue making house calls.
Mack Hollins anytime TD (+340)
If it’s not Allen or James Cook it’s…Mack Hollins? That’s not a sentence anyone expected to type, but it’s true. While he ranks behind Ray Davis for total touchdowns, Hollins is the top pass-catcher to find the end zone this season for Buffalo. He has five on the season, making him the biggest threat to score out of the receiving and tight-end rooms.
Despite that reality, Hollins ranks as a long shot play, with longer odds than nearly every other Buffalo pass-catcher. While that doesn’t align with reality this season, we can’t help but take a chance on a player who’s been getting the job done all season. With the chance to more than triple our money, let’s see if Hollins can find the end zone.
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