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AFC East betting preview: Three-team race

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AFC East betting preview: Three-team race

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August 26, 2024February 12, 2023
AFC East betting preview: Three-team race

It’s football season. Fantasy football season… but it’s also one of the most popular betting times of the year. We’ve covered the NFC and will kick off things in the AFC with the East division.

The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins both made the playoffs last season at 11-6, with the Bills taking the division after sweeping the season series and clinching the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC. Following the bye, Buffalo fell to those Kansas City Chiefs, 27-24, in the divisional round.

As for the other two teams in the division? Things turned sideways rather quickly for the New York Jets after Aaron Rodgers saw a total of just four snaps in his Jets debut before suffering a season-ending Achilles injury. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots endured a 13-loss campaign in Year 1 of the post-Bill Belichick era.

Heading into 2024, the Bills are tied with the Houston Texans for the seventh-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at 16-1, trailing the Chiefs (5-1), San Francisco 49ers (6-1), Baltimore Ravens (10-1) and Detroit Lions (10-1), Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) and Cincinnati Bengals (13-1).

Here are all the odds for the AFC East teams and our thoughts on potential wagers.

Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

2023: Bills (11-6), Dolphins (11-6), Jets (7-10), Patriots (4-13)
Review: NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South
Coming up: AFC West (Tuesday) | AFC North (Wednesday) | AFC South (Thursday)

Did you know?

Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information

  • The AFC East projects as one of the most competitive in the NFL. The Bills (ranked fifth in FPI), Dolphins (11) and Jets (12) are all in the top 12, according to ESPN Analytics, making it the only division with three top-12 teams. The only other divisions with multiple teams in the top 12 are the AFC North (Baltimore and Cincinnati), NFC North (Detroit and Green Bay) and NFC East (Dallas and Philadelphia). The Bills are projected to win the division at 44%.

  • According to ESPN BET, this is the division with the most uncertainty. Buffalo is the favorite to win the division at +175, the longest odds among any division favorite. It’s also the only division to have three teams with odds of 2-1 or shorter.

  • Buffalo also has the highest win total in the division at ESPN BET (10.5), with the only the Chiefs, 49ers (both 11.5) with higher projects numbers. New England has a win total of 4.5, the lowest in the NFL, thanks in part to a schedule that ESPN Analytics rates as the hardest in the NFL.

  • The Bills have won the AFC East each of the last four seasons but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. They were eliminated by the Chiefs in three of the four seasons, with the other loss coming to the Bengals (2022 AFC divisional playoff). In each season, the team that beat the Bills ended up representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

  • The Dolphins made the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since making it in five straight from 1997-2001. However, they are still seeking their first playoff win since 2000, only nine months after Dan Marino retired. That is the longest active drought in the NFL.

  • Aaron Rodgers has 10 seasons where he threw for 4,000 yards in his career, tied with Matt Ryan for the fifth most all-time. The Jets have had just one season where they had a 4,000-yard passer in their history (1967 by Joe Namath in the AFL, which was the first time a player threw for 4,000 yards in a season in AFL/NFL history).

  • The Patriots went 4-13 and missed the postseason for a second consecutive season. It’s the first time the franchise has missed out on the playoffs in consecutive seasons since 1999 and 2000 — the end of the Pete Carroll era in New England and the start of the Bill Belichick tenure.

Staff bets

Breece Hall OVER 1,025.5 rushing yards (-115)

This over bet cashes if Hall can record 32 more rushing yards than he did last season… a campaign in which he ran behind a brutal offensive line with Zach Wilson under center. Imagine a world where Hall runs behind an upgraded offensive line and plays alongside Aaron Rodgers, who commands far more respect from opposing defenses than Wilson? That’s a world where running lanes open up underneath and Hall likely improves upon his 4.5 yards per carry average from last season, en route to at least 1,026 rushing yards. — Joe Fortenbaugh