Course Overview.

The Irish Open tends to move around a bit in terms of venue and this year we return to Royal County Down GC for the first time since 2015 – well worth bearing this in mind when reviewing the event history stats as all tournaments played since then have been hosted elsewhere.

The track is a 7,186 yard par 71 located in Newcastle, County Down on the east coast of Northern Ireland and is a classic links course designed originally by Old Tom Morris in 1889 with alterations from Harry Vardon and Harry Colt over the years.

The course stretches along the shores of Dundrum Bay with narrow, gorse-lined fairways leading to fast, dome-shaped greens that will repel approach shots that aren’t of the highest quality; traditional links shot-shaping and imagination will be required in abundance for players to succeed around these parts with the course setting up to be a strong test of golf for the professionals.

The opening par-5 1^st hole proved to be the easiest of the 18 here back in 2015, yielding 16 eagles and 195 birdies over the 4 days, although that was very much the exception to the rule. Only two other holes played under par – the par 5 12^th and the short par 4 16^th – with even the closing hole, a 548-yard par 5 – proving difficult for the professionals that week.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well in this event, although as previously noted this week’s venue hosted the event in 2015 only: Current Form | Event Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Event Winners. 2023: Vincent Norrman, 50/1; 2022: Adrian Meronk, 22/1; 2021: Lucas Herbert, 33/1; 2020: John Catlin, 40/1; 2019: John Rahm, 8/1; 2018: Russell Knox, 28/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 14/1; 2016: Rory McIlroy, 4/1; 2015: Soren Kjeldsen, 150/1; 2014: Mikko Ilonen, 80/1; 2013: Paul Casey, 50/1; 2012: Jamie Donaldson, 66/1; 2011: Simon Dyson, 25/1; 2010: Ross Fisher, 20/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

A generally cool and showery 4 days will greet the players in Northern Ireland this week with any sunny spells being interrupted by rain every now and then. Winds will switch from a 15mph northerly on Thursday to a lighter southerly on Friday, however Saturday looks increasingly challenging as some wetter weather blows in alongside a 20mph breeze before a calmer Sunday with the winds coming in from the west.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the last few Irish Opens gives us some idea of that kind of skill-sets that this week’s test may demand:

• 2023: Vincent Norrman. 308 yards (14th), 57.1% fairways (50th), 75.0% greens in regulation (14th), 72.2% scrambling (9th), 1.71 putts per GIR (36th).
• 2022: Adrian Meronk. 288 yards (39th), 44.6% fairways (70th), 82.0% greens in regulation (1st), 61.5% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2021: Lucas Herbert. 313 yards (5th), 53.6% fairways (35th), 68.1% greens in regulation (34th), 73.9% scrambling (15th), 1.60 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2020: John Catlin. 279 yards (55th), 62.5% fairways (6th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 80% scrambling (2nd), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th).
• 2019: Jon Rahm. 309 yards (4th), 60.7% fairways (3rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (17th), 52.6% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2018: Russell Knox. 305 yards (18th), 53.3% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5% scrambling (18th), 1.73 putts per GIR (15th).
• 2017: Jon Rahm. 302 yards (8th), 51.8% fairways (36th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 46.2% scrambling (56th), 1.61 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2016: Rory McIlroy. 293 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (23rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (21st), 1.87 putts per GIR (52nd).
• 2015: Soren Kjeldsen. 280 yards (28th), 67.9% fairways (5th), 62.5% greens in regulation (18th), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.82 putts per GIR (19th).
• 2014: Mikko Ilonen. 291 yards (31st), 51.9% fairways (31st), 73.6% greens in regulation (27th), 78.9% scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2013: Paul Casey. 287 yards (18th), 44.6% fairways (41st), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 68.4% scrambling (10th), 1.68 putts per GIR (4th).
• 2012: Jamie Donaldson. 289 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 62.5% greens in regulation (64th), 63.0% scrambling (5th), 1.51 putts per GIR (1st).

A variety of different courses used may explain the disparity between stats in the results above and, depending on the course and conditions being played on any given year, either high GIR or a strong short game has been the winning formula in general.

Looking at 2015 in particular for Soren Kjeldsen’s win here at Royal County Down, Scrambling was the most consistent statistic between him and the two players who also made the play-off:

• 1st: Soren Kjeldsen. 280 yards (28th), 67.9% fairways (5th), 62.5% greens in regulation (18th), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.82 putts per GIR (19th).
• 2nd: Eddie Pepperell. 273 yards (44th), 46.4% fairways (52nd), 70.8% greens in regulation (4th), 71.4% scrambling (2nd), 1.88 putts per GIR (38th).
• 2nd: Bernd Wiesberger. 300 yards (1st), 44.6% fairways (55th), 58.3% greens in regulation (37th), 56.7% scrambling (22nd), 1.81 putts per GIR (14th).

Conditions were tough here 9 years ago with only 5 players finishing the week under par. Birdies were at a real premium: Kjeldsen made 15 on the week, Wiesberger 13 and Pepperell 11, whereas Rafa Cabrera-Bello who finished 4^th made just 9 on the week, so being comfortable playing for par was a key skill.

Incoming Form: There are positives to pick out of the recent form of our past 12 Irish Open champions and none arrived in what you’d class as poor form.

All 12 had recorded a top-20 finish in their previous 7 outings, with seven of our last eight winners each having finished in the top four in one of their previous five starts.

A similar trend continues with Dyson (2011) and Fisher (2010), broken eventually by the shock win from Shane Lowry as an amateur back in 2009:

• 2023, Vincent Norrman: MC/MC/24/1/25/50/58/49
• 2022, Adrian Meronk: 61/28/3/3/MC/6/3/MC
• 2021, Lucas Herbert: MC/70/46/MC/MC/71/18/19
• 2020, John Catlin: 8/43/51/6/MC/25/1/8
• 2019, Jon Rahm: 12/6/24/9/MC/MC/3/2
• 2018, Russell Knox: MC/MC/16/20/44/12/38/2
• 2017, Jon Rahm: 10/27/4/72/2/MC/MC/10
• 2016, Rory McIlroy: 20/MC/3/27/4/10/4/12
• 2015, Soren Kjeldsen: MC/45/MC/14/MC/31/9/18
• 2014, Mikko Ilonen: 5/33/37/MC/8/MC/38/32
• 2013, Paul Casey: MC/16/MC/8/MC/51/45/53
• 2012, Jamie Donaldson: 51/3/63/44/15/53/WD/22

Looking at 2015 here at Royal County Down in particular, Soren Kjeldsen had finished 9^th at the tough Spanish Open two weeks before his victory and 18^th the week before at Wentworth in its previous place in the calendar, so he’d been demonstrating a good ability to grind out a score.

Event Form: Despite the fact that the venue and style of course used for the Irish Open varies from year to year, it’s interesting to note that prior to Jon Rahm’s debut win in 2017 the previous 5 winners had all recorded at least one top-13 finish in the event prior to winning. Russell Knox continued that trend in 2018 before Rahm tasted victory for a second time in this event the year after.

Again the same can be said about Simon Dyson and Ross Fisher in their respective victories, with the trend once again falling down with Shane Lowry’s success at Baltray.

John Catlin’s win at Galgorm Castle in 2020, which was a new course to many of the field, was on his Irish Open debut; Lucas Herbert, on the other hand, had finished 7^th in Catlin’s victory before winning at Mount Juliet in 2021. 2022 winner Adrian Meronk also had an Irish Open top 10 to his name, although Vincent Norrman’s win last year at the K Club muddies the water somewhat:

• 2023, Vincent Norrman: 61
• 2022, Adrian Meronk: 10/MC
• 2021, Lucas Herbert: 55/7
• 2020, John Catlin: Debut
• 2019, Jon Rahm: 1/4
• 2018, Russell Knox: 2
• 2017, Jon Rahm: Debut
• 2016, Rory McIlroy: MC/7/50/35/34/10/MC/MC/MC
• 2015, Soren Kjeldsen: MC/33/MC/35/6/64/MC/45/35/30/MC/18/MC
• 2014, Mikko Ilonen: 49/MC/WD/16/MC/MC/10/32
• 2013, Paul Casey: MC/13/2
• 2012, Jamie Donaldson: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/13/21/45

Royal County Down is a tough course that’s likely to have some protection from the elements this week. Winds of 15-20mph at various points that will switch direction during the event will create fresh challenges each day, and those players who can adapt and manage the changeable forecast may be best suited to the task at hand.

My final Irish Open tips are as follows: