In other words, we are witnessing what could be one of the greatest rookie pitcher campaigns in baseball history. But that doesn’t mean you should run out and bet Skenes to win the National League rookie of the year award.
Let me be clear: I am not saying Skenes isn’t deserving of the award or won’t win the award. But the value he provides in the betting markets is poor, and you should look for alternatives if wagering in this market.
Skenes is priced as low as -270, meaning you must bet $270 for a chance to win $100. The pricing of this prop implies a 73 percent chance of Skenes winning the award, which is high for a couple of reasons. The first is that we are dealing with a small sample size to this point. The second is that Skenes is a prized asset on a team with little chance of making the playoffs, making him a strong candidate for a managed workload.
How many innings will Pittsburgh’s front office let Skenes pitch in his rookie year, especially if the Pirates fall out of the wild-card race? The latest projections from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs suggest he will pitch about 106 innings, earning an estimated 2.4 wins above replacement. Both totals would be low for a rookie of the year award winner.
The last starting pitcher to win the NL rookie of the year award was Jacob deGrom in 2014. He pitched 140⅓ innings with a 2.69 ERA, producing 3.6 WAR per FanGraphs. José Fernández was the rookie of the year in 2013 with 172⅔ innings and 4.2 fWAR.
Additionally, over the past decade, the eventual NL rookie of the year led all NL rookies in WAR five times and finished in the top three eight times. Skenes is projected to finish tied for seventh among candidates for the end-of-season award for wins above replacement.
A prime alternative appears to be backing Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Joey Ortiz at prices ranging from +1000 (wager $100 to win $1,000) to +2200. He is batting .275 with an .835 OPS (35 percent higher than the MLB average), and his 2.6 WAR leads all major league rookies and is tied for the most among all NL third basemen with at least 150 plate appearances this season, per FanGraphs. His high odds might reflect injury concern — he is on the 10-day injured list with neck inflammation — but it doesn’t appear as if he will be out for an extended period of time.
Two other players are worth discussing: Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga and San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill.
Imanaga took the majors by storm with one of the most effective, albeit one of the slowest, fastballs we have seen this season. He’s 7-2 with 84 strikeouts over 85 innings, with a league-low 1.5 walks per nine innings. However, he has never pitched more than 170 innings in a season, which he did in Japan in 2019. He’s on pace for 193 innings in 2024. Can he hold up? At a price of +1100 (wager $100 to win $1100), it’s worth exploring in limited amounts.
Merrill ramped up his production in June and led all qualified rookies in hits, home runs, doubles, batting average, slugging percentage and OPS during the month. The hot streak has him tied for the rookie lead in home runs (12) with the sole lead in hits (85) and RBI (42). If Ortiz falters, Merrill could lead the NL rookie class in WAR. Unfortunately, that forecast is already baked into his price for rookie of the year honors at +340 (wager $100 to win $340), making him the second betting favorite and not particularly lucrative, considering the risk.