Jul 27, 2024; Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France; Canada guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) controls the ball against Greece in the first quarter during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
- Australia and Canada meet on Tuesday with first-place in Group A on the line
- Finishing first in the group likely means avoiding Team USA early in the knockout stage
- See the Australia vs Canada odds, predictions, and player props to bet for July 30
A pair of 1-0 teams meet in Group A action in the 2024 Olympic Men’s basketball tournament on Tuesday as Australia faces Canada at Stade Pierre Mauroy at 7:30 am ET.
The winner of Tuesday’s game will have the inside track on top spot in Group A, which should mean avoiding Team USA until a potential gold-medal matchup.
While the Aussies were impressive in their tournament-opening win over Spain (92-80), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company are sizable favorites in the Australia vs Canada odds.
Australia vs Canada Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | +6.5 (-112) | +210 | O 179 (-110) |
| Canada | -6.5 (-108) | -258 | U 179 (-110) |
Canada heads into Tuesday as 6.5-point favorites and -258 on the moneyline. The Aussies are +210 to improve to 2-0, while the over/under is sitting at 179.
The total represents a big increase from Australia’s first game against Spain, which went over its total of 167.5 by 4.5 points. Canada’s 86-79 win over Greece stayed under its total of 172 by five points.
Odds as of July 29 at DraftKings. See the available DraftKings deposit methods.
Canada Impressive Against Greece (But Doesn’t Cover the Spread)
Team Canada appeared to be in full control against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece from the opening tip. Canada led by as many as 12 in the first quarter and had a 10-point edge at halftime. While Canada allowed Greece to pull within two in the fourth quarter (80-78), SGA hit a dagger jumper to make it a two-possession game once again with 42 seconds to play before Jamal Murray iced it from the free-throw line.
RJ Barrett finished with a team-high 23 points while Gilgeous-Alexander added 21 with seven assists, five rebounds, two blocks, and a steal.
The main concern for head coach Jordi Fernández coming out of the Greece game was fouls. Three of Canada’s starters fouled out (Dillon Brooks, Dwight Powell, and Lu Dort) and they sent Greece to the line 32 times; Giannis, alone, was 12-of-15 from the stripe. But Canada also got to the line 32 times in a very tightly-officiated game. And Canada is better equipped than most teams in the tournament to lose a starter or two. Case in point: Jamal Murray came off the bench.
Australia Distances Underwhelming Spain
Long a basketball power on the world stage, Spain was outclassed by Australia on Saturday. The Aussies took a ten-point lead at the end of the first quarter and, though Spain fought back to take a two-point lead early in the second half, Australia’s lead was never under four points in the final 15 minutes.
Houston center Jock Landale had a monstrous 20-point, nine-rebound, five-assists performance in just 28 minutes, while OKC guard Josh Giddey added 17 points, eight dimes, and seven boards, though he also committed five turnovers in 29 minutes.
Three-point shooting was the biggest factor in the win: Australia shot an electric 12-of-24 from beyond the arc while Spain was just 12-of-37. Australia also dominated the glass, finishing +13 in rebounding (46-33).
Australia vs Canada Predictions
There’s no question Canada has more high-end NBA talent. If you were drafting pick-up teams from the players on both rosters, SGA, Barrett, and Murray are the first three off the board. The Aussies might have an advantage in the post with Landale matching up against Powell, Trey Lyles, and/or Kelly Olynyk, but I don’t expect the Saint Mary’s product to be nearly as productive against Canada as he was against Spain.
The biggest difference Australia should see when they matchup against Canada is on the defensive end. Canada has elite perimeter defenders in the form of Brooks, Dort, and Gilgeous-Alexander, and the Aussie’s will have a very difficult time replicating their 50% performance from three.
Australia vs Canada Picks:
- Canada -6.5 (-108)
- Under 179 (-110)
Sascha Paruk’s Olympics betting record: 1-0 (+0.91 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.