After taking a 2-0 series lead at home against the New Orleans Pelicans, the Oklahoma City Thunder now take to the road in hopes of taking a commanding 3-0 series lead.

Despite being up 2-0, oddsmakers on NBA betting sites are barely giving the edge to the Thunder. I like them to win, so I’m advising to bet their moneyline on BetMGM where the best odds are had (-115).

Thunder vs Pelicans odds

Thunder vs Pelicans analysis

The Pelicans only scored 92 points in the first two games. In Game 1, their defense was fantastic and held the Thunder to just 94 points. But in Game 2, they surrendered 124 points in a game that felt out of hand early on.

New Orleans were without Zion Williamson in both games and also had Brandon Ingram still working his way back into playing shape after a late season injury. Ingram has scored 30 points this series, but the Pelicans need more aggression from him.

Inefficiency has been a concern for the Pelicans. They shot below 30 percent in the first two games. With C.J. McCollum and Ingram not playing at full strength, Trey Murphy III (21 points in Game 1) and Jonas Valančiūnas (19 points in Game 2) will both be counted on for more production.

On the other side, Oklahoma City struggled with inefficiency in their own right in Game 1 with just 31.3 percent of their threes going in. To their credit, Game 2 was much better with them making 48.3 percent of their threes.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of top scorers in the NBA and has been fantastic this series. But Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren, and Lu Dort all playing better in Game 2 was the biggest contributing factor in them winning.

Holmgren in particular is who I think is the x-factor in this game. He struggled with Valančiūnas’ size in Game 2 and surrendered too many offensive rebounds. How Oklahoma City adjusts will be interesting to see.

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Thunder vs Pelicans predictions

Although home court advantage has proven huge these playoffs, I don’t think the Pelicans being at home is enough to get them over the edge. They showed in Game 1 they can be a menace defensively, but in Game 2 they were ineffective.

I think their defense plays to somewhere in the middle of what we’ve seen so far. As for their offense, it’s a major concern whether they can get enough scoring without Williamson in the lineup.

Even if the Pelicans play a good defensive game, there’s no question whether the Thunder can put up points in bunches. If the Thunder make the necessary adjustments defensively when it comes to rebounding, they should be in a good position to come out on top.

Thunder vs Pelicans pick

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