Week 1 NFL action wraps up Monday night with Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets visiting the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers. Rodgers, who suffered a torn Achilles only four snaps into last season, won’t be playing far from his college stomping grounds at Cal, but his Jets come in as 4.5-point underdogs.
New York finished 7-10 last season but, buoyed by Rodgers’ return, is the favorite to win the AFC East (+160). Meanwhile, the 49ers are coming off a Super Bowl berth and are 6-1 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy this season, trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs (5-1).
Monday Night Football kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET (on ESPN ABC ESPN+).
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: 49ers -4.5
Money line: Jets (+175), 49ers (-210)
Over/Under: 43.5
First-half spread: 49ers -2.5 (-140), Jets +2.5 (+113)
Jets total points: 19.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
49ers total points: 24.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
The props
Passing
Brock Purdy total passing yards: 249.5 (Over +105/Under -140)
Purdy total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over TBD/Under TBD)
Aaron Rodgers total passing yards: 249.5 (Over +115/Under -155)
Rodgers total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +115/Under -145)
Rushing
Christian McCaffrey total rushing yards: 79.5 (Over +105/Under -140)
Breece Hall total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over +105/Under – 140)
Receiving
Garrett Wilson total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Brandon Aiyuk total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Deebo Samuel Sr. total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -110/Under -115)
George Kittle total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -100/Under -130)
McCaffrey total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Hall total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -132)
Favorite picks
Jets +4.5: Over the last 24 years, the Super Bowl loser is 5-19 against the spread in Week 1 the following season. Yeah, I’m talking about you, San Francisco. On top of that, Kyle Shanahan is just 2-5 against the number in Week 1 as the head coach of the 49ers.
Is Christian McCaffrey 100%? What about Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk? Do we trust the San Francisco offensive line? And what about the fact that Nick Sorensen is the team’s fourth different defensive coordinator over the last five years? All of these are legitimate questions.
On the Jets side of the equation, I get 4.5 points with a terrific defense, above-average quarterback, upgraded offensive line and legitimate weapons in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Needless to say, I like the ‘dog here. — Joe Fortenbaugh
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information
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Teams that lost the previous year’s Super Bowl are 5-19 ATS and 10-14 outright in Week 1 since 2000 (3-7 ATS last 10 seasons).
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The 49ers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games (4-3 outright, all as favorite) including the playoffs. It is their longest home ATS losing streak since 1982-83 (10).
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49ers games have gone under the total in Week 1 in nine of the last 10 seasons.
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The Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 prime-time games (2-3 ATS last season, lost last three).
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The Jets were 2-9 ATS in their final 11 games last season.
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In three seasons under Robert Saleh, the Jets are 20-31 ATS, tied for the second-worst record in the NFL over that span.
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Prime-time unders are 70-42-1 over the last two seasons (35-23 last season).