“Sunday Night Football” features the reigning offensive rookie of the year against this season’s favorite when C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans host Caleb Williams (+165) and the Chicago Bears.
Coming off a 3-13-1 campaign, the Texans drafted Stroud No. 2 overall in 2023 and went from the AFC South basement to division champs last season. The Bears, coming off a 7-10 season in which they tied with Minnesota for the worst mark in the NFC North, are hoping for a similar turnaround under their first-year quarterback.
The Texans (-320 to make the playoffs) squeaked past the Indianapolis Colts last week and are nearly a touchdown favorite in Week 2 against the Bears (+115 to make the playoffs), a squad that rode its defense and special teams to a victory over the Tennessee Titans last Sunday.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Texans -6.5
Money line: Bears (+225), Texans (-275)
Over/Under: 45.5
First-half spread: Texans -3.5 (-115), Bears +3.5 (-105)
Bears total points: 19.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Texans total points: 26.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
The props
Passing
C.J. Stroud total passing yards: 274.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Stroud total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -145/Under +115)
Caleb Williams total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Williams total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +150/Under -200)
Rushing
Joe Mixon total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
D’Andre Swift total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Receiving
Nico Collins total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -100/Under -130)
DJ Moore total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -145/Under +115)
Stefon Diggs total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
Tank Dell total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Favorite picks
Joe Mixon 70+ rushing yards (-110), Mixon 1+ TDs (-140), Caleb Williams under 224.5 passing yards (-125); All three parlayed (5-1)
Utilizing a balanced offense featuring an elite rushing attack, the Texans went on the road in Week 1 and defeated a tough Indianapolis Colts squad with playoffs aspirations. The Bears won their season debut at home against a rebuilding Tennessee Titans team, despite an anemic passing attack and a rushing defense that was consistently gouged by the Titans. These trends all come into play here.
While Stround and the Texans’ passing attack were effective against the Colts, Houston leaned heavily on Mixon to lead the offense on the ground, and he responded with a career-high 30 carries for 159 yards and a touchdown. Defenses have to respect Stroud’s elite passing, giving Mixon light fronts that he can exploit with his powerful running. The Bears, meanwhile, gave up 103 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries to the Titans’ running backs, illustrating the unit’s potential weakness against what was a much less-balanced and powerful offense than what they’ll face Sunday.
On the other side of the ball, rookie quarterback Williams struggled through the air against the Titans in his regular-season debut, completing14 of 29 passes for only 93 yards despite facing a defense that ranks 21st in the NFL with a defensive FPI score of -0.3. The Texans are stronger on that side of the ball, ranking 11th in the league in defensive FPI. In Week 1, they held Anthony Richardson to only 9-for-19 passing for 212 yards, with more than half of that yardage coming on two long touchdown passes. Williams is early in his development and is unlikely to make such a big leap between Weeks 1 and 2 to more than double his passing yards on the road against a better defense. — Andre Snellings
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information
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“Sunday Night Football” unders are 27-10 over the last three seasons. Prime-time unders are 71-44-1 during that span.
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The Texans have not closed as at least 6-point favorites since Week 16 of 2020 (-7.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals).
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The Texans are 6-16-1 ATS as favorites since 2019. Stroud is 3-5 ATS as a favorite.
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The Bears are 11-17 ATS as underdogs under head coach Matt Eberflus (14-27 ATS since 2021).
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Since 2020, the Bears are 5-10 ATS in prime-time games.