Week 2 of the NFL season opens with an AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins on “Thursday Night Football.” Both teams are coming off Week 1 wins.
The Bills have had the Dolphins’ number with Josh Allen at quarterback, going 11-2 straight-up against Miami (including playoffs), winning (and covering) both matchups last season to seal the AFC East.
The Bills are underdogs on the road Thursday, but are a slight favorite to take the division again (+175), just ahead of the Dolphins (+185) and New York Jets (2-1).
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Dolphins -3
Money line: Bills (+120), Dolphins (-140)
over/under: 48.5
First-half spread: Dolphins -0.5 (even), Bills +0.5 (even)
Bills total points: 23.5 (over -105/under -125)
Dolphins total points: 25.5 (over -110/under -120)
The props
Passing
Tua Tagovailoa total passing yards: 274.5 (over even/under -130)
Tagovailoa total passing TDs: 1.5 (over -135/under +105)
Josh Allen total passing yards: 249.5 (over -105/under -125)
Allen total passing TDs: 1.5 (over -110/under -120)
Rushing
James Cook total rushing yards: 59.5 (over -120/under -110)
Allen total rushing yards: 34.5 (over -135/under +105)
Receiving
Tyreek Hill total receiving yards: 99.5 (over even/under -130)
Jaylen Waddle total receiving yards: 69.5 (over even/under -130)
Dalton Kincaid total receiving yards: 44.5 (over +105/under -135)
Keon Coleman total receiving yards: 44.5 (over -110/under -120)
Khalil Shakir total receiving yards: 39.5 (over -125/under -105)
Favorite picks
Bills +2.5 (even), Bills +8.5 alternate line (-300): Not only has Buffalo had Miami’s number with Allen as its starter; the Dolphins also have had a difficult time beating playoff teams and are just 1-6 vs. Bills coach Sean McDermott with Tua at quarterback (McDermott is 8-5-1 ATS against Miami). Last week, the Bills put together an impressive comeback victory against the Arizona Cardinals, while the Dolphins squeaked out a 20-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. Even without Stefon Diggs, the Bills ranked second in EPA per dropback in Week 1. Both teams have a short week, but it could impact the Dolphins more due to their injury situation, with running back De’Von Achane a game-time call and Raheem Mostert already being ruled out. — Anita Marks
Tua Tagovailoa over 274.5 passing yards (even): Tagovailoa plays better at home and will have to throw a lot more with the injuries at running back. — Marks
Josh Allen over 34.5 rushing yards (-135), Allen anytime TD (-115): Allen averages 38.4 rushing yards per game for his career and over 50 yards per game against Miami. And the Bills love to use Allen’s legs in the red zone, particularly since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. Allen had two rushing TDs in Week 1. — Marks
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information
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Patrick Mahomes moved from +475 to +375 and remains the MVP favorite, but Josh Allen jumped from fourth to second in the odds, going from 10-1 to +550.
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Allen is 6-6-1 ATS against the Dolphins.
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Tua Tagovailoa is 18-9 ATS in his career at home (21-6 SU).
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The Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in division games under Mike McDaniel.
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Prime-time unders are 71-44-1 over the past three seasons.