This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic at 9.41pm on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racing, shapes up as one of the most interesting renewals ever. The international class of three-year-olds takes centre stage with an Ireland (City Of Troy) vs America (Fierceness) vs Japan (Forever Young) storyline brewing.

You also have some interesting older American runners, none more so than dirt marathon (by American standards) Next cutting back in distance to try the Classic distance, as well as last year’s second Derma Sotogake and Ushba Tesoro for Japan.

This could be a race we are talking about for a long, long time. But the most important question is how are we going to find the winner? Let’s examine them all.

1) Forever Young

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai / Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

He ran very well in the Kentucky Derby with a difficult journey and might have won with a clean run through. I think it’s safe to say that you can upgrade the 99 Beyer Speed Figure he ran there.

He got a long break afterwards, in part the result of international quarantine rules, but came back to the races with a strong performance in the Japan Dirt Cup, earning a better speed figure than Ushba Tesoro’s recent win and one that is comparable to Fierceness’ best numbers.

My ‘feet-to-the-fire’ guess would be a 104 and he’s supposed to move forward off that. He is a true mile-and-a-quarter runner and an A-level contender in my view.

Needs to break better than he did in the Derby. Current odds of around 5-1 are probably about right.

2) Highland Falls

Luis Saez / Brad Cox

Took his game to a new level in this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup, a race that was most notable for who didn’t show up to run: Arthur’s Ride.

Highland Falls got a Grade 1 win there and matched his career-high Beyer Figure with a 104. It must be noted he did so with a perfect trip on a track that probably flattered the front-running style he employed that day.

With plenty of speed signed on in this spot, he will likely be placed closer to mid-pack than the front end, but he has won from that position before. He’d be interesting in an average Classic and goes with some chance, but I think he’ll find a few of these too tough.

3) City Of Troy

Ryan Moore / Aidan O’ Brien

I have written about him extensively on the attheraces.com Breeders’ Cup site. To sum up, if he transfers his form to dirt, he can certainly win and he’d be a leading contender in a weaker Classic.

In this strong group, he seems over-bet to the point where the real value in the race lies in opposing him from a gambling perspective, but it would be a great story if he could finally deliver Coolmore the Classic win they crave.

The inside draw does him absolutely no favours. If he doesn’t break well – and I’d say more than half of Aidan O’ Brien’s North American starters do not – I don’t think he’ll be able to recover from down there.

4) Mixto

Kyle Frey / Doug O’Neill

He won an ugly Grade 1 in the Pacific Classic, seemingly outstaying his opposition late on in a race where I don’t believe the 100 Beyer Figure assigned (I think it was slower). Simply put, that was the day you wanted to have Mixto.

He looks outclassed here in every way and would be a giant surprise, course and distance win notwithstanding.

5) Senor Buscador

Joel Rosario / Todd Fincher

Ahead of the California Crown, I was already crafting a creative case for this horse in this race. He finally got his signature Grade 1 win early this season in Saudi.

He wasn’t disgraced in the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup. Then he came back over an inadequate seven furlongs in the Pat O’Brien on a speed-favouring track and was trying late on. Next I was guessing there’d be another decent run against the flow in the California Crown.

Instead, he did absolutely no running at all. In fact, Newgate got pretty much the exact trip I was expecting from him.

It’s very hard to support a horse to run well in the toughest spot of his life coming off that last run but I’ll say this: the last work makes him seem pointed in the right direction and might be 50-1.

He might still be worth an each-way flyer at that type of number, especially with a great hold-up rider in the irons.

6) Derma Sotogake

Christophe Lemaire / Hidetaka Otonashi

Has run stateside twice – a troubled run in last year’s Kentucky Derby and a surprising second off a seemingly inadequate preparation in last year’s Classic.

This year he had a prep run in Japan and looked a short horse, chasing the leaders and faltering. His previous runs this year were similarly uninspiring, his form figures are 565 this term.

Even a run back to the lofty 105 he ran in last year’s Classic might not be enough for an exacta finish given the quality of opposition. You can tell a story about him if you want to but others appeal more.

7) Ushba Tesoro

Yuga Kawada / Noboru Takagi

Was fifth in last year’s Classic and he didn’t run poorly at all. He was beaten less than four after a disastrous break and then spent time on the inside part of the track, which didn’t appear to be the best going.

He kicked off his season early, December 29, with a Grade 1 win in Japan. He was second in Saudi to Senor Buscador, and reversed that form but was still second in the Dubai World Cup.

He had a useful comeback run in Japan and my best guess looking at figure estimates is that he’ll still need to improve 5-10 points to win a race like this – not impossible for a proper Grade 1 horse second-time back from a layoff.

I make him a peripheral contender but another I’d classify as one to use in the ‘underneath’ spots in US exotics. The middle draw looks perfect for him.

8) Pyrenees

Brian Hernandez Jr / Cherie DeVaux

Well held by Highland Falls in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, though you can upgrade him a bit in that he was against the grain of the speed-favouring track to a winner who led all the way.

He comes here with two Grade 1 seconds and yet will be very much tested for class as those were Grade 2s pretty much in name only and this is a Grade 1+.

Has yet to break the century mark on his Beyers. Simply has too much to find here but could grow into a divisional player next season.

9) Fierceness

John Velazquez / Todd Pletcher

May be the best horse of his generation on any continent. He also may be a flat track bully. He won last year’s Juvenile with a stellar speed figure of 105. His run against an overmatched Florida Derby field (where he received a 110) seemed to build on that promise.

He has seemingly ditched his ‘good race, bad race’ pattern with consecutive excellent efforts at Saratoga, including a game run in the Travers where he denied super filly Thorpedo Anna and got a 111 figure.

The issue, such as it is, is that every time he’s gotten an easy, clean trip he’s excelled, and the times he’s faced adversity, he’s folded.

Todd Pletcher originally said he was going to skip the Travers, citing Fierceness’ need for more time between his races. That leaves open the possibility that Fierceness could improve further here with 10 weeks since that monster effort.

If he does, the rest are simply running for second. He gets a good draw, allowing John Velazquez to play the break and go with things accordingly.

10) Tapit Trice

Irad Ortiz Jr / Todd Pletcher

He is a Jekyll and Hyde, in-and-out type – you never know which version is going to show up. For the sake of argument, let’s look at his Jekyll races: Grade 2/Grade 3 wins where he was able to get forward and pretty much dominate.

Under those circumstances – exceedingly unlikely here – he’s run to around a 101 figure. I think he’s overmatched and would be better off in the Dirt Mile.

11) Sierra Leone

Flavien Prat / Chad Brown

He has his detractors, critics who say things like, ‘what will be his excuse this time?’ There’s no doubt he’s been a bit camera shy since his win in the Blue Grass this spring but this is a good horse, as his 109 Beyer in the Travers suggests.

He’s been unlucky to run into Fierceness on occasions when that rival has had perfect trips – closers are always going to need a bit more luck than frontrunners.

There’s also still the question of his quirkiness – might he hang left again under pressure? I don’t love the outside draw, though he might be able to just get over and save ground mitigating it.

He’s probably the best finisher of all of these and I make him a contender at double-digit odds: another horse I will definitely be using in my exactas and trifectas.

12) Arthur’s Ride

Junior Alvarado / Bill Mott

Looked like a major contender for this race off his big win in the Whitney Stakes where he demolished National Treasure, Skippylongstocking and all the rest in a front-running score that earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure.

That was a sloppy surface that may have contributed to the big effort and the margin of victory. The form of the race has been strange, with the top four finishers regressing significantly in terms of their figures, but the next two (Skippy and National Treasure) coming back to improve.

Arthur’s Ride’s next run was an extremely disappointing run at odds-on in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where he was out of the money at 4-5. It was an effort too bad to be believed, but also too bad to excuse.

His early speed makes him a pace factor if nothing else. You’d think they’ll have to send hard from the outside draw.

13) Newgate

Frankie Dettori / Bob Baffert

Might just be an interesting each-way longshot. The word before the California Crown was that he was likely to be short of fitness and it was just a prep race for this 10-furlong event.

He closed well into the slow pace there, coming wide on a track that seemed to be favouring both speed and the inside.

Given all that, he feels likely to move up off the 102 he earned there. He also has the right type of closing style to be passing horses late if this turns into a war up front, which it just might.

It’s hard but not impossible to imagine him winning, but I think he can run into a minor award at 25-1 plus (shop for extra places if you play him each way). The draw isn’t really a big deal with his running style and may just help with the price.

14) Next

Luan Machado / William Cowans

Somewhat of a surprise entrant in the Classic as he has been plying his trade over longer distances and has become dominant in doing so. From a sporting point of view, I think it’s great that they are trying this, but from a gambling perspective I don’t love his chances.

When many pundits, including myself, were clamouring for connections to try this ambitious test, it wasn’t obvious how difficult a race this was going to be, nor how good the three-year-olds would end up being. He likes to sit on or near the pace and grind rivals into submission.

The pace here will be much faster than what he’s used to and that makes this a tough situation. Does he go faster than typical earlier and hope his reserves of stamina carry him home? Or does he go at his typical pace and sit further back, hoping he can peg back the leaders late?

Either scenario is possible but neither likely. Another fascinating runner in a deep contest, though the draw does him no favours at all.

Peter Fornatale’s verdict

What a great race! The draw was the final piece of the puzzle for me to feel good picking Fierceness. He represents value at the current odds (the 3/1 of the American Morning line is about right).

I’ll also key him in exactas and trifectas, with Sierra Leone, City Of Troy and Ushba Tesoro, feathering in longshots for third (Newgate and Senor Buscador).

Watch the Breeders’ Cup on Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing from 8pm. Stream with NOW.