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The build-up to this month’s USPGA Championship continues at this week’s low-key CJ Cup Byron Nelson where only one member of the world’s top 20 will be competing in Texas in a field which also includes English schoolboy Kris Kim, making his PGA Tour debut.
Elite players are keeping their powder dry for next week’s Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, the sixth of eight Signature Events, so Jordan Spieth has been installed as favourite with betting sites at 17.0.
TPC Craig Ranch has hosted this event since 2021 and this par-71 course is one of the easiest on the PGA Tour, with the winning scores from the last three years reading -25, -26 and -23.
Defending champion Jason Day is unsurprisingly one of the favourites in The CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting odds to retain his title, but we have picked out three outsiders to tame a course where approach play is the key to success.
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Noren Should Thrive In Weak Field
Despite winning 10 European Tour titles, Noren has never tasted success on the PGA Tour, but all that could change for the in-form Swede this week.
Noren has finished in the top 25 in his last five tournaments and there is no reason why he cannot break his duck in a weakened field at a course where he has played well in his two previous appearances.
The 2018 Ryder Cup star finished just outside the top 20 when Craig Ranch first hosted the event in 2021 and was 12th a year later, so this is a place that holds fond memories for Noren.
With wide fairways and negligible rough, this is a track where the second shot is key, so it’s encouraging to see only Kim Si-woo and Keith Mitchell from this week’s field have better Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green stats than Noren.
Having played extremely well in recent back-to-back tournaments in Texas at Memorial Park and TPC Antonio, we’re making Noren the first of our Byron Nelson betting tips at 19.0 each-way with Ladbrokes.
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Mitchell Can Hold ‘Em In Texas
It’s been five years since Mitchell entered the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour, but this event looks ideal for the American to add to his sole success at the Honda Classic.
Inside the top 20 in five of his last seven strokeplay tournaments, including 14th spot at the Valero Texas Open four weeks ago, Mitchell is bang in form.
Despite finishing well down the field in his last visit here, Mitchell was just outside the top 25 in his first appearance at Craig Ranch which fits his excellent iron play.
Mitchell is seventh in the tee-to-green and 11th for approach in the Strokes Gained metrics, skills which will help his cause immeasurably.
At 41.0 with golf betting sites, Mitchell looks a livewire threat to challenge the likes of Spieth, Day, Kim and Will Zalatoris.
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Lee Seeks Byron Nelson Treble
South Koreans have fared well here and in this tournament in general over the last 10 years, none more so than Lee Kyoung-hoon who won here as a 251.0 outsider three years ago and then made a successful title defence 12 months later at 201.0 as he finished a shot clear of Spieth.
A hat-trick bid last year did not quite go to plan, but it would have been a tall order to follow Steve Stricker’s success at the John Deere Classic in 2011 when he became only the sixth player in PGA Tour history to win the same tournament in three successive seasons.
Lee has been in good nick in the last couple of months during which he posted a couple of top 10s at the former Honda Classic, now sponsored by Cognizant, and the Valspar Championship.
He also finished in a tie for 11th alongside Michael Kim at last week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans team event, so his confidence will be high.
On the negative side, Lee has not been setting the tour on fire with his approach play, but the compensation is that his odds are reasonably priced at 51.0 with Bet365, so he completes our Byron Nelson betting tips.
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