Betting directly on politics hasn’t been legalized in any state in the U.S., and that includes any outcomes from the June 27 debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
On numerous betting platforms in countries where betting on politics is allowed, Trump is the slight odds favorite to win the November election.
Odds could change following their first scheduled meeting this election cycle.
CNN will host the first presidential debate this year between the incumbent president and former president. One well-known offshore gambling site has odds on who will “win” the debate.
Here are some key details of the debate:
- Hosts: CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash
- Location: Atlanta
- Duration: 90 minutes
- Commercial Breaks: Two
- Live Audience: No
- Podium Position: Coin Flip
Trump Favored Over Biden
At BetOnline, which can’t operate legally in the U.S. and is therefore risky for American consumers, Trump is a -165 favorite to win the debate, compared to +125 for Biden.
The gambling site will use polling “co-sanctioned with CNN” to determine a winner. “If no such poll, any from YouGov, Ipsos or aggregate of those two if necessary,” the betting market rule stated. “If none of those three, bets are void.”
How is the debate poll conducted? After the final debate in 2020, CNN conducted an “instant poll” of debate watchers. The CNN post-debate poll was conducted by SSRS by telephone and included interviews with 585 registered voters who watched the debate. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.
Overall, 53% of debate watchers said that then-candidate Biden won, while 39% said that President Trump did.
Debate Odds
Unfortunately, wagering with offshore betting sites is not recommended if you’re in the U.S., as they aren’t regulated like U.S. sportsbooks. For example, in May, the Michigan Gaming Control Board sent a cease-and-desist letter to the operator of Bovada, another prominent offshore betting site taking political bets.
Michigan is one of more than 30 states that have legalized sports betting.
However, on Kalshi, the only federally regulated exchange for event markets, users can predict what Trump or Biden will say in the debate, among other markets. Here were the probabilities as of early Thursday.
- “Inflation”: 96%
- “Immigration”: 91%
- “Unemployment”: 90%
- “Tariffs”: 81%
- “Student Loan”: 77%
- “Covid”: 77%
- “Climate Change”: 71%
- “AI (or artificial intelligence)”: 66%
- “Obamacare”: 49%
- “Big tech”: 44%
- “Crypto”: 40%
- “Bitcoin”: 31%
According to trading on Polymarket, a crypto-based platform that facilitates legal trading outside the U.S. on current events, there was a 5% chance the first debate is canceled. More than $500,000 has been bet on this market. Polymarket geo-blocks U.S.-based users.
Another market, albeit much smaller with just $19,000 wagered, was whether Biden and Trump would shake hands before the debate, with “yes” at only 32%.
Gamblers have also risked more than $100,000 on what Trump will say during the debate. Below were the probabilities on Polymarket as of Monday, June 24:
- “Fake News”: 65%
- “Dementia”: 14%
- “Crack”: 24%
- “Felon”: 35%
- “Sleepy Joe”: 24%
- “Hunter”: 65%
- “Jail/Prison”: 69%
- “Abortion”: 65%
- “Putin”: 77%
- “Crypto/Bitcoin”: 45%
- “Rigged”: 61%
Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images