• The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day with a chance to lock up the #1 seed in the AFC
• The Steelers will win the AFC North if they win their final two games of the season
• See the Chiefs vs Steelers predictions, picks, and best available odds for Dec. 25

No longer is the NFL ceding Christmas Day to basketball. The league has scheduled a huge double-header on Dec. 25 starting with the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1, 6-1 away, 7-9 ATS) visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, 5-1 home, 10-5 ATS) at Acrisure Stadium at 1 pm ET. Pittsburgh fell into a tie with Baltimore at the top of the AFC North after getting demolished 34-17 last Saturday, but they still control their own destiny and will win the division crown if they manage to win their final two games. Unfortunately for Mike Tomlin’s team, they are 2.5-point home underdogs to the two-time defending Super Bowl champs, who can secure the lone bye in the AFC with a victory.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions

• Steelers +3.5 (-138) at FanDuel See SBD’s list of the top NFL betting apps to secure the best promo codes for Christmas Day.

It’s no secret that the Chiefs have been scraping by more often than not this year. It’s completely undeserved that this team has a 14-1 record. They sit ninth in the NFL in point differential (+78) and second in their own division behind Denver (+82). They rate just fifth overall at PFF and seventh in DVOA.

KC managed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites against Houston last week (27-19) but that was largely thanks to the Texans shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers (-2) and penalties (six for 45 yards compared to just two for 20 yards for the Chiefs).

The Steelers have one of the best home-field advantages in the league, going 5-1 at Acrisure Stadium this year and 55-24-1 at home over the last decade, an impressive 69.6% win percentage. Pittsburgh’s only loss at home this season was a 20-17 setback against Dallas back in Week 5 when Justin Fields was still the starter (and Dak Prescott was healthy for Dallas). Russell Wilson has yet to lose a game at home, going 4-0 with wins over the Jets (37-15), Giants (26-18), Ravens (18-16), and Browns (27-14).

I’m not betting on Patrick Mahomes to lose. That’s been a surefire way to go broke ever since he entered the league. But I do love the alternate spread of Pittsburgh +3.5 at a very reasonable -138 price in the latest NFL odds. The Steelers haven’t lost by more than a field goal at home since Week 13 of last season.

Best Chiefs vs Steelers Odds

The Chiefs vs Steelers spread alternates between Kansas City -2.5 and -3.0 depending on the sportsbook. The best ATS option for Chiefs bettors is -2.5 (-120) at any of Caesars, FanDuel, or ESPN Bet, while the best option for Steelers bettors is +3.0 (-115) at BetMGM or DraftKings.

On the moneyline, DraftKings and FanDuel both have Pittsburgh listed at +136, which is the longest price available. ESPN Bet has the best moneyline price for a Kansas City win at -150.

The over/under fluctuates between 43.5 and 44.0. BetMGM and DraftKings are the best sites for over bettors with 43.5 at -110. Under bettors should use Caesars or bet365 where the total is 43.5 with -110 odds each way.

Public-Betting Splits & Percentages

Chiefs vs Steelers betting splits as of 12:36 pm ET, Dec. 24. 

The public strongly favors the Chiefs to win straight-up, with 77% of moneyline handle and 80% of moneyline tickets on Kansas City to secure the victory they need to clinch the #1 seed. However, the vast majority of ATS handle (69%) is on the Steelers to cover the spread, despite just 46% of the ATS tickets going to Pittsburgh. That means much larger ATS wagers are on the Steelers to cover, on average.

When it comes to the game total, the public is backing the over. Currently 61% of O/U handle and 72% of O/U wagers are on the over.

But we are still 24 hours away from kickoff so those numbers will move. Check SBD’s NFL public betting splits page to see the latest statistics.