Less than a week before the entry deadline, the odds are against Circa Sports meeting its unprecedented $16 million in guaranteed prize money for its two $1,000-entry NFL handicapping contests.

After Circa paid almost $4 million the last three years to cover overlays — the amount of money it must add to the prize pool in addition to the entry fees — the downtown sportsbook was on the hook Sunday for a payout of more than $2 million.

The book needs 10,000 entries in its Circa Survivor contest to meet its record $10 million guarantee, up from $8 million last year. It is on track to easily eclipse that mark. It has 9,780 entries six days before Saturday’s 2 p.m. registration deadline.

It needs 6,000 entries in its Circa Million VI contest, which again features a $6 million guarantee. It is well short with 4,126 entries for a $1.87 million overlay.

“Zero chance of an overlay in Survivor,” Circa sportsbook operations manager Jeff Benson said Sunday in a text message. “100% chance of an overlay in Circa Million.”

Circa has already shattered last year’s number of 9,267 entries in Survivor. It drew 5,274 entries last year in Million.

Four entries went 20-0 last year to split the $9,267,000 prize in Survivor. The contest asks competitors to pick one NFL winner with no point spread each week — including separate weeks for Thanksgiving and Christmas — but they can use each team only once.

In the Million, contestants select five NFL games ATS each week. Matt Ste. Marie won the contest and the $1 million first prize last season after going 62-27-1 against the spread (69.6 percent).

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.