Dec 13, 2022; Lusail, Qatar; Croatia midfielder Luka Modric (10) reacts toward FIFA assistant referee Alessandro Giallatini during the first half of a semifinal match during the 2022 World Cup at Lusail Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
- Croatia and Italy meet in a massive game in Group B at Euro 2024
- Croatia needs a victory to have a legitimate chance at reaching the knockout stage while Italy is guaranteed to advance with a draw
- See the Croatia vs Italy odds, predictions, and projected starting lineups for Monday’s game
A disappointing tournament for Croatia (0-1-1) runs the risk of coming to a crashing end on Monday as they battle Italy (1-0-1) in the final group-stage game in Group B at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig (3:00 pm ET). In all likelihood, anything other than a victory would see Croatia heading home before the knockout stage.
Spain (2-0-0) is guaranteed to take a top-two spot in Group B, and a draw or better against Albania (0-1-1) would guarantee the Spanish first-place. Barring an unlikely Albanian win over Spain, Croatia would salvage a runner-up finish in the quartet with a victory over gli Azzurri on Monday. While the four best third-place finishers in the six groups will also advance to the round of 16, it’s unlikely that a pair of draws would be good enough for Croatia to advance. (Two third-place teams are already on three points after two matches.) So bettors can expect the Vatreni to approach Monday as a win-or-go-home matchup.
It’s Italy that will enter the game as slight favorites, though, sitting at +142 in the three-way moneyline odds.
Croatia vs Italy Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Croatia | +230 | Over 2.5 (-100) |
| Italy | +142 | Under 2.5 (-125) |
| Draw | +222 | N/A |
Croatia come back at +230 to pick up the much-needed three points, while the draw is priced at +222. The over/under is set at 2.5 with the under only slightly favored at -125 and the over at even money.
Odds as of June 24 at bet365. See the full list of bet365 promotions to get a bonus for Euro 2024.
Croatia was on the verge of picking up its first win of the tournament on Wednesday, coming back from 1-0 with a pair of rapid-fire goals in the 74th and 76th minutes (Andrej Kramaric, Klaus Gjasula own goal). But a stunning equalizer from Gjasula, who put Croatia’s go-ahead goal into his own net, in the final minute of stoppage time denied Croatia the win.
After a consummate 3-0 defeat at the hands of Spain in their opener, the draw with Albania left Croatia’s tournament hopes on life support.
After a fairly dominant 2-1 win over Albania in their opener, Italy had a chance to book a ticket to the knockout stage against Spain on Thursday, but were completely outplayed in every third of the field. Italy had just one shot on target to Spain’s eight and were, in reality, lucky the score ended just 1-0.
Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella had Italy’s goals in the win over Albania, overcoming an early 1-0 deficit on the fastest goal in Euro history by Nedim Bajrami.
Croatia vs Italy Projected Lineups
| Croatia | Italy |
|---|---|
| Dominik Livakovic (GK) | Gianluigi Donnarumma (GK) |
| Josko Gvardiol (LB) | Matteo Darmian (LB) |
| Marin Pongracic (CB) | Riccardo Calafiori (CB) |
| Josip Sutalo (CB) | Alessandro Bastoni (CB) |
| Josip Juranovic (RB) | Giovanni Di Lorenzo (RB) |
| Mateo Kovacic (LMF) | Nicolo Barella (LMF) |
| Luka Modric (RMF) | Jorginho (RMF) |
| Andrej Kramaric (LW) | Federico Chiesa (LW) |
| Mario Pasalic (RW) | Davide Frattesi (RW) |
| Luka Sucic (SS) | Lorenzo Pellegrini (SS) |
| Bruno Petkovic (STR) | Gianluca Scamacca (STR) |
Tactical changes are expected on the Croatia side after the two disappointing performances so far, while at least one change will be necessitated on the Italian side with left back Federico Dimarco injured. Here is how the sides are projected to lineup for Monday’s tilt in Leipzig.
Croatia vs Italy Prediction
Both the Croatian and Italian attacks have left a lot to be desired in the first 180 minutes of the tournament. Italy only generated 1.60 Expected Goals For (xGF) against Albania and 0.25 against Spain (1.85 total in the first two games of the tournament). Croatia has been better at generating chances (4.63 through two games) but dreadful at finishing, and highly suspect on the defensive end, which was unexpected from the reigning third-place finishers at the World Cup.
With Italy content to play for a draw, I love the under on Monday, and I’m also going to fade an Italian victory.
The best price on Croatia +0.5 (which is the equivalent of a Croatia/draw double-chance bet) is -175 at BetMGM, while the best odds on under 2.5 goals is -124 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Croatia vs Italy picks:
- Double-chance Croatia or draw (-175) at Caesars
- Under 2.5 goals (-124) at FanDuel
Sascha Paruk’s Euro 2024/Copa America betting record:
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.