EFL Betting Tips
Saturday 12:30pm
Millwall v Luton
Under 2.5 goals
Double Chance: Luton
Leeds v Burnley
Leeds to win to nil
Oxford v Stoke
Oxford to score the first goal
Northampton v Wycombe
Half Time: Draw
Sunday 3pm
Portsmouth v West Brom
West Brom to win and under 3.5 goals
Millwall v Luton
Under 2.5 goals
Double Chance: Luton
TV: Sky Sports Football
There is a rivalry to this contest which means it will be quite an intense atmosphere at The Den this weekend, meaning a tight match could easily occur. Luton have certainly suffered quite a big hangover after relegation, so much so they are still searching for their first league win of the season.
The international break therefore probably came at a good time to allow them to reset. Injuries are at least healing up, meaning manager Rob Edwards can expect better things moving forward. He will know they have to be at it on Saturday in a big game like this. The Hatters are ranked fourth in the Championship for Expected Goals, so the key is simply to take more of their chances.
Millwall should still be on a high after the excellent 3-0 win against Sheffield Wednesday before stopping for international games. However, they are a team that wouldn’t have wanted the break to come, meaning they are no sure-fire thing to back that up.
They didn’t win any of their first fixtures back after the international breaks last season, plus they are facing a rather wounded, talented opponent that is desperate for a first league triumph of the campaign. It will surprise many to see Neil Harris’ side top the league Expected Goals tally, but Luton should soon start rising the table once they click into gear, possibly starting on Saturday.
Leeds v Burnley
Leeds to win to nil
TV: Sky Sports+
This clash puts together two of the expected promotion contenders in the Championship this season. Heading into the weekend, Leeds and Burnley occupy two of the four play-off positions, but there is a rather big yet slightly confusing statistic that separates them. Yes, Burnley are the joint-highest scorers in the league, yet they have the third-worst Expected Goals count.
They are over-performing their xG by seven goals, suggesting a big degree of fortune. It was a rather chaotic end to the transfer window for them too, so they may need some time for things to settle down. A trip to Elland Road is possibly the last match they’d want right now.
Leeds are positioned third on the Championship xG count, meaning they are creating significantly better goalscoring chances compared to their Saturday opposition. That could be the difference on the day, plus considering the fact Daniel Farke’s side remain strong defensively.
The Whites have kept three clean sheets in succession, including two wins, whilst Burnley in comparison have just the one in all competitions. No team had more clean sheets in this league than Leeds did last season and given the offensive talent they still possess, it is no shock to see they’re winning matches without conceding once more. Scott Parker’s men have shipped only three league goals, so are tough to break down themselves, but a close encounter should be edged by the hosts.
Oxford v Stoke
Oxford to score the first goal
TV: Sky Sports+
A return of two wins and two defeats is a decent start to life in the Championship for Oxford. Both victories came at Kassam Stadium, which is likely to be their main source of points this season as they look to avoid an instant return to League One.
Manager Des Buckingham has greater aspirations than just survival, though, and even in their two away setbacks they was only by a one-goal margin. So far, they look more than suitable for the level and will have an eye on claiming three points versus Stoke. United always look to be quick out of the traps at home, knowing how key home advantage is to them.
Steven Schumacher will also be more than aware of the fact his Stoke outfit have scored only one first-half league goal this season. They look to build their way into games and prioritise not conceding, which can be risky, especially at Oxford where they are still on a high after promotion.
The visitors are actually the favourites to claim all three points this weekend, which on one hand is a surprise but yet funnily enough is also understandable too. It is a tricky one to punt on from an outright perspective, especially with City being quite an unpredictable beast and have been for a few seasons now. They’re also one of only six teams in the Championship to have not been winning a league clash at half-time, which further enhances their seemingly slow-starter status.
Northampton v Wycombe
Half Time: Draw
TV: Sky Sports+
It is only one win apiece for Northampton and Wycombe in league action this season, placing all the more importance on locating a second as quickly as possible. Both will view this as a realistic and presentable opportunity to do so. Town are on a three-match unbeaten run in league action, which included a home triumph over Exeter City.
The one and only home setback they’ve had this season was in the League Cup, against, of all sides, Wycombe. Speaking of Wanderers, they’re also three without loss, only in all competitions for them. The highlight in this period was knocking Championship side Swansea out of the cup, but four points from Blackpool away and Rotherham at home is also a fine return.
International call-ups meant it was a weekend off for the pair last Saturday, which at least gave them a few weeks of solid training under their belts since when last playing. This can work in two ways, either they will come quickly out of the blocks or they’ll take some time to settle back into the rhythm again.
A good case is made for this encounter to not be all-action right away, mainly because neither team has been leading at half-time in any League One fixture this season. Only two first-half goals has been netted between Northampton and Wycombe in the league (both for Wycombe) and there is plenty pointing towards the second period being much more entertaining from a goalscoring perspective.
Portsmouth v West Brom
West Brom to win and under 3.5 goals
TV: Sky Sports Football
The Sunday Championship action comes from Fratton Park as Portsmouth entertain in-form West Brom in a 3pm kick-off. Pompey are still searching for their maiden victory of the campaign after winning the League One title last season.
However, it goes without saying that they’ve endured a very difficult start in relation to quality of opponent faced. John Mousinho’s side took on Luton, Leeds, Middlesbrough and Sunderland; twice conceding late goals to turn probable wins into draws. They’ve largely performed well in those, but would take any kind of scrappy victory at this stage.
That is easier said than done however as Portsmouth’s tough start continues given West Brom made the play-offs last season. They have one of the best tactical coaches in the division in the form of Carlos Corberán and are expected to compete for promotion once more. Early into this season they are unbeaten in the league and will fancy their chances of that extending.
Only two league goals have been conceded by The Baggies, who possess the fourth-strongest Expected Goals Against figure, too. If they are to win, it isn’t necessarily expected to be very convincingly, but likely in a professional manner. Considering Portsmouth are also finding it hard in creating chances (fourth-worst Expected Goals) and WBA being more than happy to do just enough, an away victory that isn’t so high-scoring looks the most obvious outcome.
Football League Betting Tips
Saturday 12:30pm
Millwall v Luton
Under 2.5 goals
Double Chance: Luton
Leeds v Burnley
Leeds to win to nil
Oxford v Stoke
Oxford to score the first goal
Northampton v Wycombe
Half Time: Draw
Sunday 3pm
Portsmouth v West Brom
West Brom to win and under 3.5 goals
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now
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