According to the betting odds, Donald Trump is the favorite to win the election and become the next President of the United States. His designation at the sportsbooks is currently sitting at -140 with Kamala Harris at +120, which would give us our fourth Democrat/Republican White House flip in a row.
In order to do be victorious, Trump will of course have to win the majority of the electoral votes. The necessary number is 270, and there are plenty of projections about what might happen in the battleground states.
How many electoral college votes will Trump and the Republican Party wind up with, according to the betting odds?
Electoral College: Republicans Favored In These Swing States
One of the bets on the board involves the “Sun Belt Sweep”, which would consist of Trump and the Republicans taking all of Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
Florida is listed as a heavy -2000 favorite to turn red, and Texas has an even smaller payout at -4000. With those two states included with the rest of the states where Trump is already heavily favored, the Republican Party would be looking at a total of 219 electoral voted before the rest of the swing states are counted. Harris would be holding a lead at that point with 216 votes.
But the projected results from the rest of the swing states are where Trump turns into the favorite.
Arizona was one of the key states for the Joe Biden election in 2020, but the oddsmakers believe that is will be turning red this year. The attached odds are listed at -290, which are implied odds of roughly 75%. That would be 11 votes for Trump, bringing his total to 230.
One of the other swing states that holds a similar value as Arizona is Georgia. Another state that swung blue in the last election, the designation for the Peach State is currently -210 in favor of Trump and the Republicans, or 67% implied odds. This would be a huge win for the GOP, and would bring their total to 246 with the inclusion of Arizona.
Should Trump pick up North Carolina as he is favored to do (-190), he would be just 8 electoral votes away from the needed 270 to win the Presidency. Nevada is one of the closest races according to the odds boards at the sports books, with the Republicans listed as -155 favorites.
But Nevada is only worth 6 electoral votes, which would give Donald Trump a total of 268, two short of the needed amount to win.
Race Could Come Down To Pennsylvania & The Blue Wall
In that case, it would all come down to Pennsylvania. It is the closest race of any, according to the oddsmakers, with Trump currently holding the slightest of leads. Republicans are listed at -120 to take the state, with the Democratic designation coming in at a similar -110.
Should Trump sweep the Sun Belt states, and then turn Pennsylvania red, it would mark the conclusion of the race. It would put the Republicans all the way up to 287 votes, well over the needed number.
All of this makes the “Blue Wall” all the more important. If Harris and the Democrats take all of the states that they are favored to win, and then sweep the trio of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, that would give them exactly 270, giving them the overall victory.
(Full Disclosure: All betting odds and markets sourced from BetOnline. Information accurate as of Nov. 3, 2024.)