One of the most intriguing Euro 2024 matchups to date kicks off on Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, when Group B favorites Spain and Italy collide at Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen, Germany.

Following strong debuts in this tournament — Spain blew out Croatia 3-0 in its opener, while Italy beat Albania 2-1 despite an early scare — these two European powers are seen as legit contenders, particularly La Roja.

At DraftKings, Spain are +750 to raise the trophy, behind only France, England, Germany and Portugal, while Italy have DK’s sixth-shortest odds (+1400) to win it all.

In Group B, Spain are -280 to finish first (and -10000 to advance) at DraftKings, which lists Italy at +200 to win the group and -3500 to advance.

Spain vs. Italy Betting Odds

Spain vs. Italy Moneyline Odds

Below are the three-way moneyline prices for Thursday’s match.

Spain vs. Italy Over/Under

Oddsmakers expect a tight, low-scoring affair, with the Over/Under set at 2.5 goals. DraftKings has the Over priced at +130 and the Under at -165, while FanDuel offers similar: Over 2.5 at +136; Under 2.5 at -166. At ESPN Bet, Over 2.5 is listed at +115, with Under 2.5 at -150.

Spain vs. Italy Betting Analysis

Italy got off to a nightmare start in its Euro opener against Albania, as a defensive lapse seconds after the opening whistle allowed the underdogs to score the fastest goal in Euro history (just 23 seconds into the match, to be exact).

But the Italians quickly responded with two goals of their own inside the first 20 minutes of the match, then shut Albania down the rest of the way for a 2-1 victory.

Spain, on the other hand, controlled its opener against Luka Modric’s experienced Croatian side from the jump last Saturday. Entering Euro 2024, the biggest question about new Manager Luis de la Fuente’s team was whether it could create and finish scoring chances.

Based on its first 90 minutes of action this summer, Spain appears to have taken massive strides in this department since its last appearance in the spotlight, when it was shut out by Morocco and lost on PKs in the 2022 World Cup round of 16. Spain blitzed Croatia early, with three goals before halftime from Alvaro Morata, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Carvajal.

All three came via impressive assists (from Ruiz, Pedri and 16-year-old winger Lamine Yamal). It’s hard to overstate how encouraging the nature of those goals was for a team that dominated possession two years ago in Qatar but mustered just two goals over its final three matches before bowing out early.

Keys to Spain vs. Italy

Can Spain repeat its offensive success against Italy?

Spain’s early dominance of Croatia came against a theoretically solid back line. But after Man City defender Josko Gvardiol and Co. gave up two more goals against Albania on Tuesday, it might be time to re-think whether Croatia is the same quality side that reached the semifinals of the 2022 World Cup.

I digress, but Spain faces a tough Italian keeper (PSG star Gianluigi Donnarumma) and back line on Thursday, and the Italians’ defense gets a boost from the fact that four of its starters — defenders Federico Dimarco and Alessandro Bastoni, plus midfielders Nicolo Barella and Davide Frattesi — all play together for Inter Milan, which ran away with the ’23-24 Serie A title.

Can Italy rediscover its Euro 2020 mojo?

No team in Europe has had a more up-and-down recent history than the Italians. They failed to qualify for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, but managed to win Euro 2020 (which took place in 2021 due to the pandemic) in between those embarrassments.

This year’s team features plenty of talent in its prime, but after the roller coaster ride that was its opener against Albania, the jury is out on its prospects in a deep field. In addition to loaded favorites England and France, Germany, Portugal, the Netherlands and, yes, Spain, all look like contenders.

Spain vs. Italy Best Bets

In case the questions above, and the lack of definitive answers to them, didn’t give it away, this game strikes me as much more of a toss-up than oddsmakers seem to believe.

I overreacted to both Switzlerand-Hungary and Scotland-Germany when trying to predict Switzerland-Scotland, so I’m trying to avoid that mistake here.

Best bets:

1) Both Teams to Score — Yes (-110) BetMGM

2) Double Chance — Italy or Draw (available at -160 at both BetMGM and DraftKings). This is another solid option — at an unfortunately expensive price — for anyone who isn’t quite ready to go all-in on Spain in a tough battle like this one.

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