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Fantasy basketball picks and betting tips for Thursday

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Fantasy basketball picks and betting tips for Thursday

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December 19, 2024February 12, 2023
Fantasy basketball picks and betting tips for Thursday

  • Eric Moody, ESPN Staff WriterDec 19, 2024, 07:00 PM

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    • Fantasy football, basketball and sports betting writer for ESPN
    • Former manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company

The NBA Cup is a wrap, and the Milwaukee Bucks, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, emerged as champions. We shift gears back to the regular season, and Thursday brings a massive 13-game slate. Twenty-six teams are in action. Talk about options!

The matchup I’m most excited about? The New York Knicks visiting the Minnesota Timberwolves. Both teams return to action after long breaks, and there’s an added layer of drama with Karl-Anthony Towns facing the Timberwolves, the team that traded him just days before training camp. It’s a must-watch.

There are other intriguing games worth breaking down from a fantasy and betting perspective. There’s a lot to unpack, so let’s get to it.

Thursday’s Fantasy Stream Team

Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies (available in 52.6% of ESPN leagues)

Edey missed 12 games due to an ankle injury but returned to face the Lakers on Sunday and finished with 37 fantasy points in 24 minutes. The rookie has averaged 11.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG and 1.0 BPG in 20.4 minutes. That paints a statistical picture of what you can expect from Edey against a Golden State Warriors team that has given up some big performances to centers.

Ayo Dosunmu, SG, Chicago Bulls (52.4% available)

Dosunmu has played very well as a starter for the Bulls over the last 11 games, averaging 15.7 PPG and 5.5 APG. Dosunmu also contributes blocks and steals, which adds to his streaming appeal. With Josh Giddey questionable with an ankle injury, Dosunmu could see even more minutes against the Boston Celtics on Thursday.

Kevin Porter Jr., PG/SG, LA Clippers (94.5%)

Porter has been thriving off the bench for the Clippers and has posted at least 28 fantasy points in three straight games. With Terance Mann sidelined by a fractured finger, Porter should keep rolling against the Dallas Mavericks.

Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Toronto Raptors (94.7%)

Olynyk could see a bigger role with Jakob Poeltl sidelined by a groin injury. Olynyk is averaging just 13.5 minutes per game, but when you look at his per-40-minute numbers, they’re impressive: 19.3 points, 11.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists. The catch? He has only played four games this season and hasn’t logged more than 15 minutes in any of them.

Ausar Thompson, SG/SF, Detroit Pistons (52.6%)

Thompson had his best game of the season on Monday, setting highs in points and rebounds against the Miami Heat while making his second start of the year filling in for Tobias Harris. With Jaden Ivey doubtful for Thursday’s game due to a knee injury, Thompson should again see plenty of minutes. It’s a great opportunity for him, especially against the Utah Jazz, who give up the most points per 100 possessions.

Moody’s best bets for Thursday

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Odds by ESPN BET

Kevin Durant OVER 4.5 total first-quarter points (-130)

Durant is in a great spot tonight against an Indiana Pacers defense that’s struggled against power forwards, allowing the seventh-most points per game to the position. He has hit this mark in 14 of 15 games this season. He’s averaging 9.2 minutes in the first quarter, giving him plenty of time to get going early.

Payton Pritchard OVER 14.5 points (-130)

Pritchard has been impressive off the bench for the Boston Celtics. He has hit this mark in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 13.1 field-goal attempts while shooting 50% from the floor. The matchup against the Bulls looks favorable, too. They allow the fifth-most points per game and the fourth-most threes to shooting guards. Also, with Chicago playing at the fastest pace in the league, Pritchard should have ample opportunities to make an impact.

Michael Porter Jr. OVER 8.5 assists and rebounds (-110)

The Portland Trail Blazers have struggled against small forwards, giving up the fourth-most assists and fifth-most rebounds per game to the position. Porter has been consistent too, clearing this line in 17 of his last 20 games, including eight of his last 10 on the road. Over that stretch, he is averaging 4.3 potential assists and 11.8 rebound chances per game. All signs point to Porter having another strong performance.

Cade Cunningham OVER 34.5 points and assists (-125)

The Utah Jazz have struggled defensively against point guards all season, and this matchup sets up well for Cunningham. He has cleared this line in three of his last five games, posting a solid 29.0% usage rate and averaging 20.8 potential assists per game during that stretch. Cunningham has also hit this mark in his last two games against the Jazz, making this a favorable spot for him tonight.

Jalen Suggs UNDER 29.5 points, rebounds and assists (-110)

The low total in this matchup points to a defensive-heavy game. Suggs is in line for a big usage rate with both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner out for the Orlando Magic. However, he faces a tough challenge against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have the league’s best defensive rating. Oklahoma City also excels at limiting point guards. Suggs thrives in the pick-and-roll, isolation and spot-up situations, but the Thunder are great at shutting down all three.

Dejounte Murray OVER 18.5 points (-130)

The Houston Rockets are known for their strong defense, but they do struggle against point guards, allowing the eighth-most points per game to the position. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans are still battling injuries, which positions Murray for a massive usage rate. Over the last five games, he has averaged 16.2 field-goal attempts and 20.0 points per game. With his increased usage, he’s in a great spot to deliver a strong performance tonight.

Projections and Injury Reports

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET

Players in italics are available in a majority of ESPN Leagues

Utah Jazz at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET

Line: Jazz +4.5 (-115) | Pistons -4.5 (-105)
Money line: Jazz +155 | Pistons -185
Total: 227.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Pistons by 4.3, straight up 64%, 229.3 total points.

Injury Report:
Jazz: Taylor Hendricks, (OUT – Lower Leg); Svi Mykhailiuk, (GTD – Groin)
Pistons: Jaden Ivey, (GTD – Knee); Tobias Harris, (GTD – Thumb); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT – Knee)

Jazz projections:

Pistons projections:

Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic
7 p.m. ET on TNT

Line: Thunder -6.5 (-120) | Magic +6.5 (EVEN)
Money line: Thunder -270 | Magic +220
Total: 210.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 4.7, straight up 65%, 212.3 total points.

Injury Report:
Thunder: Chet Holmgren, (OUT – Hip); Nikola Topic, (OUT – Knee); Jaylin Williams, (OUT – Hamstring)
Magic: Franz Wagner, (OUT – Oblique); Gary Harris, (GTD – Hamstring); Paolo Banchero, (OUT – Oblique)

Thunder projections:

Magic projections:

Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET

Line: Hornets -4.5 (-105) | Wizards +4.5 (-115)
Money line: Hornets -175 | Wizards +145
Total: 226.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Hornets by 0.5, straight up 52%, 225.0 total points.

Injury Report:
Hornets: Tre Mann, (OUT – Back); Grant Williams, (OUT – Knee); Brandon Miller, (GTD – Ankle)
Wizards: Saddiq Bey, (OUT – Knee); Carlton Carrington, (GTD – Illness); Kyle Kuzma, (OUT – Ribs)

Hornets projections:

  • LaMelo Ball, PG: 49.7 FPTS (29.4 pts, 5.4 reb, 6.6 ast, 4.5 3PM)

  • Brandon Miller, SG/SF: 35.9 FPTS (22.3 pts, 4.8 reb, 3.8 ast, 3.7 3PM)

  • Miles Bridges, SF/PF: 31.5 FPTS (17.4 pts, 6.2 reb, 3.1 ast, 2.0 3PM)

  • Cody Martin, SG: 20.0 FPTS (8.9 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.0 ast)

  • Josh Green, SG/SF: 17.8 FPTS (9.2 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.7 ast)

  • Nick Richards, C: 17.1 FPTS (9.1 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.4 ast)

  • Mark Williams, C: 16.0 FPTS (7.7 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.4 ast)

Wizards projections:

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET

Line: Bulls +14.5 (-115) | Celtics -14.5 (-105)
Money line: Bulls +750 | Celtics -1400
Total: 241.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 10.2, straight up 80%, 238.9 total points.

Injury Report:
Bulls: Dalen Terry, (GTD – Knee); E.J. Liddell, (GTD – Lower Leg); Josh Giddey, (GTD – Ankle)
Celtics: Kristaps Porzingis, (GTD – Heel); Sam Hauser, (GTD – Back); Xavier Tillman, (GTD – Illness)

Bulls projections:

Celtics projections:

  • Jayson Tatum, SF/PF: 51.7 FPTS (28.5 pts, 9.0 reb, 6.3 ast, 3.7 3PM)

  • Jaylen Brown, SG/SF: 40.0 FPTS (23.1 pts, 5.3 reb, 4.7 ast, 2.3 3PM)

  • Derrick White, PG/SG: 34.0 FPTS (15.7 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.0 ast, 3.3 3PM)

  • Payton Pritchard, PG: 26.0 FPTS (12.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.9 3PM)

  • Jrue Holiday, PG/SG: 25.5 FPTS (12.3 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.9 3PM)

  • Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C: 23.0 FPTS (13.8 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.8 3PM)

  • Al Horford, PF/C: 18.2 FPTS (7.9 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.8 3PM)

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET

Line: Nets +3.5 (-105) | Raptors -3.5 (-115)
Money line: Nets +145 | Raptors -170
Total: 218.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Nets by 1.8, straight up 56%, 225.4 total points.

Injury Report:
Nets: Cam Thomas, (OUT – Hamstring); Trendon Watford, (OUT – Hamstring); Ziaire Williams, (OUT – Knee); Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT – Foot); Dennis Schroder, (GTD – Not Injury Related)
Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, (OUT – Elbow); Scottie Barnes, (GTD – Ankle); Bruce Brown, (OUT – Knee); Jakob Poeltl, (OUT – Groin)

Nets projections:

Raptors projections:

New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET

Line: Pelicans +8.5 (EVEN) | Rockets -8.5 (-120)
Money line: Pelicans +300 | Rockets -400
Total: 217.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Rockets by 8.6, straight up 76%, 217.0 total points.

Injury Report:
Pelicans: Brandon Ingram, (OUT – Ankle); Jordan Hawkins, (GTD – Back); Jose Alvarado, (OUT – Hamstring); Karlo Matkovic, (OUT – Back); Zion Williamson, (OUT – Hamstring)
Rockets: Alperen Sengun, (GTD – Knee); Steven Adams, (GTD – Ankle)

Pelicans projections:

Rockets projections:

  • Alperen Sengun, C: 36.2 FPTS (17.6 pts, 8.9 reb, 4.8 ast)

  • Fred VanVleet, PG: 35.9 FPTS (16.0 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.9 ast, 2.6 3PM)

  • Jalen Green, SG: 30.9 FPTS (18.8 pts, 4.1 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Jabari Smith Jr., PF/C: 25.6 FPTS (13.8 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.8 3PM)

  • Dillon Brooks, SG/SF: 22.7 FPTS (12.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 2.0 ast, 2.0 3PM)

  • Tari Eason, SF/PF: 21.8 FPTS (10.0 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.1 ast)

  • Amen Thompson, SG/SF/PF: 20.8 FPTS (10.9 pts, 5.8 reb, 1.9 ast)

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET

Line: Warriors +2.5 (-110) | Grizzlies -2.5 (-110)
Money line: Warriors +115 | Grizzlies -135
Total: 236.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies by 3.1, straight up 60%, 234.7 total points.

Injury Report:
Warriors: De’Anthony Melton, (OUT – Knee); Moses Moody, (OUT – Knee)
Grizzlies: Vince Williams Jr., (OUT – Ankle); GG Jackson II, (OUT – Foot); Ja Morant, (GTD – Back); Marcus Smart, (GTD – Shoulder); Jay Huff, (OUT – Ankle)

Warriors projections:

Grizzlies projections:

  • Ja Morant, PG: 36.3 FPTS (20.8 pts, 4.7 reb, 6.4 ast)

  • Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C: 32.1 FPTS (20.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.8 3PM, 1.6 blk)

  • Desmond Bane, SG/SF: 28.8 FPTS (14.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 3.9 ast)

  • Santi Aldama, SF/PF/C: 23.5 FPTS (10.3 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.7 ast)

  • Marcus Smart, PG/SG: 21.8 FPTS (9.9 pts, 2.6 reb, 3.2 ast)

  • Jaylen Wells, SG: 17.3 FPTS (9.5 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.8 ast)

  • Zach Edey, C: 17.3 FPTS (8.0 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.2 ast)

Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET

Line: Hawks +1.5 (-115) | Spurs -1.5 (-105)
Money line: Hawks +EVEN | Spurs -120
Total: 233.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Spurs by 2.8, straight up 59%, 235.5 total points.

Injury Report:
Hawks: Kobe Bufkin, (OUT – Shoulder); Trae Young, (GTD – Achilles); Cody Zeller, (OUT – Personal); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT – Knee)
Spurs: Keldon Johnson, (GTD – Calf); Tre Jones, (GTD – Shoulder); Zach Collins, (GTD – Back)

Hawks projections:

Spurs projections:

LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET

Line: Clippers +4.5 (-115) | Mavericks -4.5 (-105)
Money line: Clippers +150 | Mavericks -180
Total: 223.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 2.5, straight up 58%, 226.2 total points.

Injury Report:
Clippers: P.J. Tucker, (OUT – Not Injury Related); Derrick Jones Jr., (GTD – Hamstring); Kobe Brown, (OUT – Back); Kawhi Leonard, (OUT – Knee); Terance Mann, (OUT – Finger)
Mavericks: Dante Exum, (OUT – Wrist); Kyrie Irving, (GTD – Shoulder); Brandon Williams, (OUT – Thumb); Jaden Hardy, (OUT – Ankle); Luka Doncic, (OUT – Heel)

Clippers projections:

Mavericks projections:

Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns
9 p.m. ET

Line: Pacers +6.5 (-115) | Suns -6.5 (-105)
Money line: Pacers +200 | Suns -240
Total: 235.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Suns by 5.4, straight up 67%, 239.0 total points.

Injury Report:
Pacers: Isaiah Jackson, (OUT – Achilles); James Wiseman, (OUT – Achilles); Ben Sheppard, (GTD – Oblique); Aaron Nesmith, (OUT – Ankle)
Suns: Bradley Beal, (GTD – Knee); Collin Gillespie, (OUT – Ankle)

Pacers projections:

Suns projections:

  • Devin Booker, PG/SG: 45.7 FPTS (28.6 pts, 3.6 reb, 6.4 ast, 2.7 3PM)

  • Kevin Durant, PF: 37.8 FPTS (25.4 pts, 6.4 reb, 4.0 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Tyus Jones, PG: 29.5 FPTS (14.0 pts, 2.2 reb, 5.3 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Bradley Beal, SG/SF: 27.7 FPTS (17.0 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.1 ast, 1.9 3PM)

  • Jusuf Nurkic, C: 23.6 FPTS (11.5 pts, 10.5 reb, 1.3 ast)

  • Royce O’Neale, SF: 22.2 FPTS (9.7 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.3 3PM)

  • Grayson Allen, PG/SG: 16.0 FPTS (8.8 pts, 1.9 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.9 3PM)

New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves
9:30 p.m. ET on TNT

Line: Knicks +2.5 (-110) | Timberwolves -2.5 (-110)
Money line: Knicks +115 | Timberwolves -135
Total: 214.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 2.6, straight up 59%, 217.6 total points.

Injury Report:
Knicks: Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle); Ariel Hukporti, (GTD – Ankle); Kevin McCullar Jr., (OUT – Knee)
Timberwolves: Joe Ingles, (OUT – Calf)

Knicks projections:

  • Jalen Brunson, PG: 42.9 FPTS (26.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 7.2 ast, 2.3 3PM)

  • Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C: 41.7 FPTS (22.2 pts, 13.1 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.9 3PM, 1.2 blk)

  • Josh Hart, SG/SF: 33.3 FPTS (13.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 5.5 ast)

  • Mikal Bridges, SG/SF: 31.6 FPTS (18.5 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.3 3PM)

  • OG Anunoby, SF/PF: 28.2 FPTS (16.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.8 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Miles McBride, PG: 17.6 FPTS (8.6 pts, 1.9 reb, 2.6 ast)

  • Cameron Payne, PG/SG: 13.7 FPTS (6.5 pts, 1.1 reb, 2.5 ast)

Timberwolves projections:

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET

Line: Nuggets -8.5 (-110) | Blazers +8.5 (-110)
Money line: Nuggets -360 | Blazers +280
Total: 235.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 5.1, straight up 66%, 229.2 total points.

Injury Report:
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee); DaRon Holmes II, (OUT – Achilles); Christian Braun, (GTD – Back); Dario Saric, (OUT – Ankle)
Blazers: Matisse Thybulle, (OUT – Ankle); Bryce McGowens, (GTD – Elbow); Dalano Banton, (GTD – Hip); Deandre Ayton, (GTD – Illness)

Nuggets projections:

Blazers projections:

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET

Line: Lakers +4.5 (-105) | Kings -4.5 (-115)
Money line: Lakers +155 | Kings -185
Total: 228.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI Projection: Kings by 4.9, straight up 66%, 230.7 total points.

Injury Report:
Lakers: Jarred Vanderbilt, (OUT – Foot); Anthony Davis, (GTD – Foot); LeBron James, (GTD – Foot); Jalen Hood-Schifino, (OUT – Hamstring); Christian Wood, (OUT – Knee); Jaxson Hayes, (OUT – Ankle)
Kings: Devin Carter, (OUT – Shoulder); Domantas Sabonis, (GTD – Back); Keegan Murray, (GTD – Ankle); Kevin Huerter, (GTD – Shoulder)

Lakers projections:

Kings projections:

  • De’Aaron Fox, PG: 45.0 FPTS (26.5 pts, 5.1 reb, 6.6 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Domantas Sabonis, PF/C: 42.6 FPTS (20.7 pts, 13.6 reb, 5.9 ast)

  • DeMar DeRozan, SF/PF: 33.9 FPTS (20.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.0 ast)

  • Malik Monk, SG/SF: 31.2 FPTS (16.7 pts, 4.0 reb, 4.5 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Keegan Murray, SF/PF: 25.0 FPTS (12.8 pts, 7.1 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.8 3PM)

  • Kevin Huerter, SG/SF: 16.1 FPTS (7.4 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.8 ast)

  • Trey Lyles, PF: 12.5 FPTS (6.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.1 ast)