Futures betting can be a crapshoot.

There’s a reason preseason odds are so long. Hype can quickly dissolve into overratedness, and there are millions of futures bets that went awry due to injuries, underperformance or just bad luck.

This can especially be true for an award like the Heisman Trophy, which is annually given to the most outstanding college football player. It is one of the most popular NCAAF markets to wager on, as the trophy is extremely prestigious and bettors can get long odds due to the award’s volatility.

But there is also a method to the madness, and you can give yourself a better chance at success by doing some homework and having some baseline knowledge going in.

With that in mind, here are five betting tips to consider before placing your Heisman Trophy wagers at our favorite college football betting sites.

Quarterbacks, Quarterbacks, Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks have dominated the award recently, winning 20 of the last 24 Heismans since 2000. QBs have claimed 38 of the 89 trophies, winning nearly as often as every other position combined.

Therefore, it’s no surprise that there are only quarterbacks listed in FanDuel Sportsbook’s 2024 preseason odds. Quarterback is the most important position on the field, and like the NFL MVP award, it often gets recognized come awards season.

QB play has become even more integral in the spread-option era, where QBs generally need to be run-pass threats and make split-second decisions while also having strong, accurate arms.

If you’re hoping to zag by betting on a non-quarterback, you could consider a running back. RBs have won the award 19 times, more than any other position except quarterback. However, a tailback hasn’t won the award since Derrick Henry in 2015.

Whatever you do, make sure to avoid defensive players. Only one defensive player, Charles Woodson in 1997, has won the Heisman since players stopped playing both ways. Since Woodson won the Heisman, only two defensive players – Aidan Hutchinson of Michigan (2021) and Manti Te’o of Notre Dame (2012) – have even been finalists for the award.

Non-Powerhouses Need Not Apply

The Heisman has been handed out every year since 1935, but most of those trophies have gone to a handful of schools. USC leads the way with eight winners, most recently Caleb Williams in 2022.

Twelve schools have had at least three Heisman winners, and they are a who’s-who of programs. Notre Dame, Ohio State and Oklahoma are all tied for second with seven apiece, followed by Alabama with four. Army, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Nebraska, LSU and Michigan have all had three winners.

Heisman voters often prefer to see the player they will be voting for, so teams that play high-profile, primetime games typically get more attention. It’s especially important for Heisman candidates to get TV exposure in October and November when the race is being decided.

Similar to how MVPs in other sports typically come from playoff teams, Heisman winners usually play for top programs that are often in the spotlight. Accordingly, you may want to stay away from schools that have never won a national championship.

Consider National Championship Contenders

The Heisman Trophy has been awarded on the second Saturday in December for years, even before the proliferation of conference championship games. Thus, playing for the team that finishes No. 1 in the nation is not necessarily a prerequisite for Heisman consideration.

Still, regular-season success is integral for Heisman winners, as it’s harder for players on mediocre teams to break through and generate buzz. With the College Football Playoffs expanding to 12 teams starting in 2024, this season’s Heisman winner will almost certainly be from one of the 11 Power Four programs that qualify.

Only two of the past eight Heisman winners have gone on to win the national championship – Joe Burrow (LSU) in 2019 and DeVonta Smith (Alabama) in 2020. That said, five of the last eight Heisman winners played for teams that qualified for the College Football Playoff, so the winner’s team is typically in the mix for the title.

As such, try to target the best players on national title contenders.

Preseason Hype Doesn’t Matter

The Heisman Trophy is the most talked-about individual award in college football, and programs typically drum up preseason marketing plans like social-media hype videos to attract national attention to certain players. The University of Oregon even purchased a billboard in Times Square for quarterback Joey Harrington’s Heisman candidacy in 2001.

Don’t get sucked into the hype machine, though, as on-field play is what ultimately decides the Heisman Trophy winner. Look at Caleb Williams, who fell short in 2023 despite being the preseason favorite.

It’s important to assess the above criteria and each school’s potential to be in the national title conversation before betting on a Heisman Trophy winner, as there will be schools that try to unsuccessfully manufacture buzz for their player.

Voter fatigue is also real, as only one player has ever won multiple Heismans – Ohio State running back Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. That trend will continue in 2024, as every recent winner has already graduated to the NFL.

Ultimately, don’t put too much stock in preseason hype, as many players will fizzle by season’s end.

Start Small Early, Go Bigger Later

Betting on the Heisman before the season can be profitable, as that’s when you’ll get the best odds. Players’ odds will shorten as the season progresses and frontrunners emerge, reducing your potential profit.

That said, preseason bets are also riskier, as a lot can change between August and December. A player could get hurt early in the season, scuttling your chances.

Accordingly, you’re better off wagering a little upfront, than waiting until the heart of the season before betting more heavily. At this point, you can either double down on your preseason pick or pivot to players who are performing better.

The odds will fluctuate every week, so keep that in mind. Waiting longer gives you a clearer picture of the race, but it will also make it more difficult to get a candidate at plus odds.

Recency bias can cloud voters’ decision-making, so players who finish the season strong tend to get more attention than players who tail off. Accordingly, try to capitalize on a player before he pulls away from the pack.

Lastly, keep in mind that only one player can win the Heisman Trophy, so keep your expectations in check and your wagering within reason. It’s hard to correctly guess award winners, and you don’t want to tie up too much of your betting bankroll in wagers that take months to pay out.

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