Depending on what side you fall on the political aisle, you are either victory-lapping President-Elect Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential election Wednesday morning or freaking the f*ck out after soon-to-be former Vice President Kamala Harris‘s epic loss.
Frankly, I don’t care either way. Trump is great for the economy and the First Amendment. Yet, I’m a New York transplant, living in Long Beach, California, and most of my friends are liberals. So, Harris winning the 2024 election would stop them from whining about Trump being president for the next four years.
Regardless, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer. This has been the outcome of every election in my life. As you can tell, I’m not into politics. But, since I’m OutKick’s gambling guy, I’m here to praise a French mystery trader who calls himself “Théo” and profiting nearly $50 million on the betting platform, “Polymarket”.
Related, Early Look At 2028 Election Betting Odds: Bobby Burack
Through several emails with the Wall Street Journal, Théo described his process for correctly betting $30 million on Trump to win the 2024 election. Like most successful sports bettors, the Frenchman faded the market by betting against the accuracy of polling data, which we’ve learned is mostly useless during the Trump Era.
However, Théo’s other handicapping angle, known as the “neighbor method”, deserves a chef’s kiss. This is where pollsters ask people who they think their neighbor is voting for based on the idea that people will accidentally leak their vote when guessing their neighbor’s political preferences.
Théo came up with his own surveys to calculate the neighbor effect and found mainstream opinion polls, which mistakenly skewed the numbers in Harris’s favor. This is akin to accessing the strategy of the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens before they met on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 10. Just brilliant.
President-elect Donald Trump dances on-stage at the Johnny Mercer Theater after winning the 2024 U.S. election. (Richard Burkhart/USA Today / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
This reminds me of one of my favorite gambling stories. Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder bet $10,000 on Harry Truman at 17-to-1 odds, beating Thomas Dewey to win the 1948 U.S. Presidential election. He wagered 10 racks on Truman after finding out that women didn’t like Dewey’s mustache.
Politics aside, Théo’s $50 million win and handicapping process for the 2024 election is inspiring. I need to channel my inner Théo before locking in my NFL Week 10 picks. Maybe I’ll knock on my neighbor’s doors and fade who they are betting. Unfortunately, the only thing Southern Californians like less than Trump is football.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.