Day two of the Boodles May Festival at Chester and Matt Brocklebank looks to follow up Wednesday’s 8/1 winner with a couple of recommendations.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 175pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Thursday May 9
0.5pts e.w. Michaela’s Boy in 1.30 Chester at 14/1 (BetVictor, Coral, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4)
2pts win Deauville Legend in 3.40 Chester at 9/2 (General)
Boy to bounce back in hotly-run contest
More fast and furious action on Chester’s sprint course to kick things off on Thursday and there’s another genuine burn-up in store in the CAA Stellar Handicap.
Roman Dragon – not exactly a slouch from the stalls himself – has become a bit of a legend in these parts, winning five of his 15 starts here over the past three seasons, and most of the lights appear to be green again on his return to the Roodee as he’s got stall one and Oisin Murphy for company for the first time too.
He’s a pretty obvious player having been in good form when last seen out in Bahrain earlier in the year, but the big question mark with him is whether he can pull out a little more improvement to overcome his career-high BHA mark of 95.
The same applies to the top-weight Democracy Dilemma, who is rated 5lb higher than when winning impressively here in September, and beyond these two it does look seriously competitive – so much so that I was only happy to put a line through three of them.
One of the biggest-priced runners I’d give a fair chance to is Mick Appleby’s MICHAELA’S BOY, who is admittedly one of the many other pace angles in the race but doesn’t necessarily have to be right on the sharp end to be seen to best effect, which is a bonus as the battle for early supremacy really is fierce to say the least.
A decent two-year-old, initially with Richard Hughes before winning a couple of nurseries for his current yard, Michaela’s Boy wouldn’t be the first three-year-old sprinter to find life tough in his second season, and he was probably caught between a rock and a hard place after finishing third in a Listed race at York’s Dante meeting last May.
In spite of this, he was only beaten six lengths off a stiff enough mark of 97 in the Palace of Holyroodhouse at Royal Ascot before going down by just a head in the equally competitive Rockingham Handicap off the same mark against older horses at the Curragh the following month.
His season tailed off from that point and he was beaten a fair way on his comeback at Musselburgh too, but that run was probably something of a sharpener and, as a result of being unplaced in his last four starts, he comes here rated just 90 and in with a big shout if back on song.
Drying conditions are going to be in his favour and connections have decided to try a first-time tongue-tie which might help spark a bit of improvement.
They’ve also put him in the Group One King Charles III (formerly the King’s Stand) at the Royal meeting next month so, even though that’s obviously more than a little fanciful, it gives some indication as to the regard in which he’s held.
Stall six looks manageable and the yard has had two winners (including one sprinter) in the past week so the general 14/1 appeals.
Deauville offers big-race value
I’ll give the maiden a miss, likewise the Halliwell Jones Handicap, in which Sir Michael Stoute’s Never So Brave looks potentially thrown in off 94 having been second to Group One winners Ancient Wisdom and Vandeek in maidens at Newmarket and Nottingham respectively, before duly justifying cramped odds on his return to action at Thirsk.
They could easily be eyeing up the Jersey Stakes or something along those lines with him if everything goes to plan here, and Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle is another massive plus.
The Boodles Raindance Dee Stakes is no more of a betting race, unfortunately, but I can comfortably take on Arrest and Point Lonsdale in the tote.co.uk Supporting Racing Ormonde Stakes as you wouldn’t want to bank on either of them producing their best form on any given day, especially if the forecast is correct and the ground gets a bit quicker. Hopefully, they both stand their ground regardless.
I’d much rather back DEAUVILLE LEGEND, who trainer James Ferguson revealed has been working well with last week’s Newmarket winner Bague d’Or. That’s clearly not enough to inspire a bet but it’s also very encouraging to hear Ferguson talking about having the horse back in top shape after a relatively forgettable time of things last season, when Deauville Legend was apparently recovering from a serious bout of colic.
He still wasn’t exactly disgraced in a couple of his three appearances, finishing fourth in the Hardwicke first time up and again in a Listed race at Windsor, but it’s the 2022 Voltigeur win and Melbourne Cup fourth on unsuitably soft ground that really stand out in terms of his peak performances.
If he is indeed back to that level then he should be a good bit shorter in the betting and I don’t mind the first-time blinkers going on (stable 2-15 in that scenario) despite the experiment with cheekpieces not exactly going to plan when last seen in August.
Deauville Legend tends to go well fresh, and he’ll have no obvious excuses over this trip on a sound surface so I’d make him the bet of the day.
Published at 1600 BST on 08/05/24
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