These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Bills have won eight of their last nine games dating back to last year, while the Jaguars have lost seven of their last eight.

Buffalo is notoriously tough to beat at home. The Bills are 15-3 in the regular season at Highmark Stadium dating back to 2022 and have won five of their past six games there.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, is 0-2 after scoring just three touchdowns in its first two games. The Jags have a top-10 defense but are scoring just 15 points per game, as franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence has just 26 completions for 382 yards in two games.

Buffalo’s defense is better at defending the pass than the run, which doesn’t bode well for Lawrence. Jacksonville is allowing the third-most passing yards per game (245.5), so Allen should have a huge day throwing the ball.

Take the Bills on the moneyline, ideally as a parlay leg due to the short odds.

The Jaguars have defended the run well, but they’ll be tested by Buffalo. Allen and running back James Cook are a lethal duo on the ground, helping the Bills average 119 rushing yards per game.

If Buffalo gets bogged down in the run game, look for Allen to keep spreading the ball around. No Bills wideout has reached 100 receiving yards yet, though four receivers have caught at least four passes.

Also keep in mind that Buffalo has been one of the league’s best teams on both sides of the ball so far, ranking third in points per game (32.5) and eighth in points against per game (19.0). The Bills are more than capable of winning this game by a touchdown at home, especially if Jacksonville’s offensive woes continue.

This spread isn’t nearly high enough, and Buffalo should easily cover -5 against the sputtering Jags.

The Bills have topped 31 points in each of their first two games, but the Under still hit in one of those games. Meanwhile, the Under has hit in both of Jacksonville’s games.

The Over is in play if Lawrence rebounds and plays up to his potential, but the Jaguars have yet to surpass 17 points. Both defenses have been great so far, so we’re expecting a lower-scoring game on Monday night.

Take the Under.

Khalil Shakir Over 3.5 Receptions (-120)

We already covered Jacksonville’s inability to slow the passing game, and Shakir has been Buffalo’s No. 1 receiver in the early going. He’s caught all eight of his targets so far, averaging four catches and 48 receiving yards per game.

If the Bills lean on the passing game Monday, Shakir should be heavily targeted. He hit the Over on this prop bet last week and is a good bet to do so again.

Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 Interceptions (-140)

While Lawrence has completed just 51% of his passes with one touchdown, he hasn’t turned the ball over yet this season.

Look for that trend to end against Buffalo’s ball-hawking defense. The Bills have already racked up three interceptions so far and should be able to snag another one this week.

If the Jags fall behind as expected, then Lawrence will be forced to throw even more, opening the door for him to throw his first pick of 2024.

• Moneyline: Bills (-230). The Jaguars have dropped four straight road games dating back to 2023 and the Bills are nearly unbeatable at home. They have a 67% implied probability to win based on these odds, which seems a little low.
• Spread: Bills -5 (-110). Jacksonville pushed on a five-point spread against Cleveland last week, while Buffalo is 2-0 against a five-point spread despite spotting Arizona a 17-3 lead in Week 1. The Bills should handle the Jaguars with relative ease.
• Total: Under 45.5 (-110). Both defenses are pretty good, and the Jaguars’ offense has been dreadful. Buffalo’s offensive weapons are still figuring it out with Allen, and Week 2 hero James Cook may be held in check by Jacksonville’s solid rushing defense.
• Khalil Shakir Over 3.5 Receptions (-120). Shakir has been Allen’s biggest weapon so far, and the Jaguars are not great against the pass. This is a fairly low bar to clear, especially if Lawrence wakes up and this game becomes a shootout.
• Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 Interceptions (-140). Lawrence has 39 interceptions in 52 NFL games but has yet to throw one in 2024. The Bills’ defense has recorded three interceptions this season and will be ready to catch one of Lawrence’s passes Monday.

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