The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) and Atlanta Falcons (1-1) meet Sunday. Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Chiefs vs. Falcons odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Chiefs didn’t cover as 6.5-point favorites, but still pulled off a 26-25 victory over the visiting Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2 as the Over (47.5) hit. K Harrison Butker kicked a game-winning 51-yard FG as time expired. The kick was set up by a crucial pass interference call on 4th down that went against Cincinnati.

An odd storyline for Kansas City this season has been the lack of a connection between QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce. Mahomes has targeted Kelce a total of just 7 times in 2 games for 4 receptions, 39 yards and no TDs. Kelce’s Over/Under for receiving yards Sunday is set at 49.5 (O: -115 | U: -125) at BetMGM Sportsbook.

The Falcons covered as 5.5-point underdogs in a 22-21 win at the Philadelphia Eagles Monday with the Under (46.5) cashing. QB Kirk Cousins (20 of 29, 241 yards, 2 TDs) threw a go-ahead TD to WR Drake London with 34 seconds remaining to pull off the last-minute upset.

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Chiefs at Falcons odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated at 5:28 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Chiefs -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Falcons +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
• Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs -3 (-115) | Falcons +3 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Chiefs at Falcons key injuries

Chiefs

• WR Marquise Brown (shoulder) out
• RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) out
• RB Isiah Pacheco (fibula) out

Falcons

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Chiefs at Falcons picks and predictions

Prediction

Chiefs 24, Falcons 20

Moneyline

Since 2022 — the year WR Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami — the Chiefs (-165) have the best away record in the NFL at 15-4. They will likely win Sunday, but this line has too much vig.

PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

This line was Chiefs -4.5 (-110) last Sunday, and the market has been overreacting to news ever since. The Chiefs have been downgraded due to their injuries at RB, and the Falcons have been upgraded after Eagles RB Saquon Barkley dropped a pass that would’ve sealed a Philadelphia victory Monday.

The Falcons scored just 10 points in a Week 1 loss to the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers, and if Barkley didn’t have a crucial drop Monday, they would’ve only scored 15 points in Week 2. I don’t see how Atlanta scores enough to keep this one close.

BET CHIEFS -3 (-115).

Over/Under

The Under is 6-3 since 2022 when the Chiefs have a rest advantage, according to TeamRankings.com. The Falcons are 2-0 to the Under this season and should continue to struggle offensively against a Chiefs defense that was 5th in opponent yards per play (4.8) last year.

BET UNDER 46.5 (-110).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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