The Mavericks aren’t quite in must-win territory, yet. But given that no team has ever erased a 3-0 deficit in the NBA Finals, it’s fair to call them desperate going into Game 3 on Wednesday night at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite on ESPN BET, which lists the total at 213.5. That number is down slightly from Game 1 (216.5 on ESPN BET) and Game 2 (214.5 on ESPN BET).

The biggest development since Game 2 is the news that Kristaps Porzingis could miss time with an injury he suffered on Sunday night.

2024 NBA Finals Game 3 Spread Analysis

Dallas’s status as the favorite in Game 3 might puzzle some given that the Mavs are massive longshots in the series (+550 to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy at both DraftKings and BetMGM) after going down 2-0.

But teams in the Finals typically play well at home in Game 3, and oddsmakers expect a strong response from Kyrie Irving and the Mavs’ role players at American Airlines Center after their rough start to this series.

Irving has shot just 0-for-8 on 3-pointers in this series, and statistically, he’s due to at least start converting his open looks from 3-point land in Game 3.

Improved shooting from Irving and better performances from the likes of Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II are a recipe for Dallas to get a much-needed win at home. The Mavs are 5-3 at home in the playoffs this year, and they wouldn’t be the first team whose role players provided much more at home than on the road in the NBA Finals.

The other reason to like Dallas in Game is the possiblity of Porzingis missing this matchup, for all the reasons we’ve detailed both before and during this series.

On the other hand, there’s a solid argument to be made that Boston offers a ton of value as the road underdog, especially after winning Game 2 while shooting just 10-for-39 (25.6%) from 3-point land. If Boston can grind out a win when it’s that cold from outside, does Dallas really have a chance in any game when the Celtics shoot the ball at least competently from deep? That question is good reason to stay away from the spread in this game.

The bottom line on Wednesday night is that if Irving shoots the ball better at home and Luka Doncic continues to give Boston’s defense fits, Dallas should have enough to make it 2-1 going into Game 4.

The best play, though, is to take the Mavericks on the first half spread (Dallas -2.5).

Bettors considering a spread play for Game 3 should note that DraftKings offers Boston +3 (-112), while ESPN BET, BetMGM and FanDuel all offer Boston +2.5.

Pick: Dallas First Half -2.5 (-115) on DraftKings

2024 NBA Finals Game 3 Total Analysis

The Under has comfortably gone 2-0 in the first two games of this series. Despite totals of just 206 in Game 1 and 203 in Game 2, there’s a strong case for Over 213.5 (available at DraftKings and ESPN BET) in Game 3.

The Celtics as a team should shoot much better than they did in Game 2, and Irving surely has to find his shooting touch, at least to some extent, right?

Dallas has scored just 89 and 98 points in the first two games of this series, so it needs to improve significantly for the Game 3 Over to pay out.

Like the spread, there’s no obvious answer for how to attack the total in this matchup. That being said, let’s bank on both teams bouncing back from poor 3-point shooting efforts in Game 2 (in addition to Boston’s rough night from downtown, Dallas made just six of its 26 3-point attempts) and go with the Over.

Boston Team Total Over 105.5 feels like the best play for anyone interested in the team total markets after the Celtics reached 107 points in Game 1 and 105 in Game 2 despite struggling from outside.

Picks: Over 213.5 (-110) at DraftKings; Boston Team Total Over 105.5 (-110) at DraftKings.

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