The 2024 Larry O’Brien Trophy is Boston’s to lose after the Celtics went up 3-0 with a 106-99 win in Dallas on Wednesday night.

The Mavericks are now looking to become the first team in league history to come back from down 3-0 to win the NBA Finals.

To do it, Dallas will need big games from not only Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but also its role players. The Mavericks’ supporting cast of P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford has not kept pace with Boston’s Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Al Horford, which is the biggest reason the series has gotten away from the Western Conference champs.

In Game 4, Boston is a slight favorite (-1.5 at ESPN BET, BetMGM; -1 at FanDuel, DraftKings).

The total for Friday night’s game at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC is set at 210.5 at FanDuel and ESPN BET, 211 at DraftKings and 211.5 at BetMGM.

2024 NBA Finals Game 4 Spread Analysis

Questions abound for the Mavericks as they enter Game 4 in desperation mode. The biggest one relates to Luka Doncic. He is coming off an embarrassing finish to Game 3, when he fouled out with more than four minutes to play in a game Dallas had managed to claw its way back into with a furious late rally.

Doncic has started every game of this series hot, but he has consistently run out of gas in the fourth quarter for a few reasons. The lack of consistent scoring help he’s gotten, the pressure Boston has put on him to defend, and the Celtics’ physicality and athleticism at every position — which have forced him to earn every bucket, even on his best shooting nights — have all combined to leave Doncic out of gas in crunch time throughout the Finals.

Still, he should be motivated enough by how Game 3 ended to keep his team in the mix in Game 4. It should help that A) he’s playing at home, and B) history tells us the Celtics are likely to show some complacency given their 3-0 lead.

Does that make Dallas a safe bet to force a Game 5? Don’t bet the house on it, but yes, I’m going to stubbornly bank on Doncic refusing to let his team get swept at home.

Pick: Mavericks moneyline (-104) FanDuel

2024 NBA Finals Game 4 Over/Under Analysis

The total for Game 4 is the lowest it’s been in this series after the Under easily hit in Games 1, 2 and 3. These teams combined for 205 points or fewer in each of the first three games of the Finals:

• Game 1 Total: 196 (Boston 107, Dallas 89)
• Game 2 Total: 203 (Boston 105, Dallas 98)
• Game 3 Total: 205 (Boston 106, Dallas 99)

Despite that, the Game 4 Over/Under of 211.5 at BetMGM remains well clear of the highest point total we’ve seen to date in this series.

Dallas, in fact, is yet to score 100 or more in the Finals after hitting that number in 13 of its 17 Western Conference playoff games.

Dallas’s best chance to send this series back to Boston is to win a low-scoring contest, so let’s avoid overthinking this and wager on the Under moving to 4-0 in this series.

Pick: Under 211.5 (-110) BetMGM

Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.