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The long wait for the 2024 NBA Finals is almost over. After a long layoff for both the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks, Game 1 tips off on Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Boston, coming off a dominant regular season followed by a romp through the Eastern Conference Playoffs, is favored by 6.5 points at just about every sportsbook. The spread has changed only slightly since oddsmakers set it at 6 points once this matchup was confirmed. The Over/Under for Game 1 is 215.5.

2024 NBA Finals Game 1 Spread Analysis

In a hard-to-predict series between a historically good regular season team, the Celtics, and a red-hot Mavericks squad led by two of the NBA’s best scorers, the home team laying 6.5 points in Game 1 seems about right.

If Kristaps Porzingis can play extended minutes and be effective in his return from a lengthy absence due to a calf injury, Boston could have enough firepower to comfortably cover this number. But Porzingis playing as well as he did for most of the season after so much missed time hardly feels like a certainty.

As long as the Mavericks can avoid getting rattled early, and barring a torrid shooting night from a Celtics team that is capable of building a big early lead if it comes out hot, this one should be close down the stretch. If that’s the case, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving make the Mavs a safe bet to ensure that Dallas covers, if not pulls out Game 1 outright.

Betting Pick: Dallas +6.5 (-110) on ESPN BET

2024 NBA Finals Game 1 Total Analysis

Unless Boston somehow unleashes a suprise defensive strategy that overwhelms Doncic, Dallas should be able to score effectively. The Celtics have played great defense this season, but they’re not exactly the Timberwolves, and the Mavericks just cooked Minnesota’s league-best defense in the Western Conference Finals.

Doncic’s ability to score 30 or more while keeping his teammates involved would make Dallas a good bet to find quality looks even if its second option was someone less talented than Kyrie Irving. But with a scorer of Irving’s caliber as “Plan B,” Dallas is that much tougher to slow down.

On the other end of the court, Boston’s 5-out, 3-point-heavy offense presents myriad challenges for the Mavs’ defense. In addition to All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the entirety of the Celtics’ rotation shoots the ball effectively from outside. That makes double-teaming either Tatum or Brown a risky proposition, even when veteran Al Horford is playing center in place of Porzingis. The 3-point shooting and versatility of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Tatum, Brown, Horford, and Porzingis make Boston a very different – but no less dangerous – beast than the Luka-led, pick-and-roll-heavy Dallas offense.

It all adds up to a likely back-and-forth battle that should easily crack the Over, especially given the total scores of the conference finals game in both conferences.

In Boston-Indy, even if you only count regulation of Game 1, three of those four matchups featured totals of 225 or more. In Dallas-Minnesota, the total went over 215 in three of those five games. The context – Indy’s breakneck pace and Minnesota’s offensive struggles in the WCF – provides good reason to take those numbers with a grain of salt. Still, they make it clear that Over 215.5 is well within reach on Thursday night.

Pick: Over 215.5 (-110) on ESPN BET