Jun 22, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Mexico forward Santiago Gimenez (11) dribbles the ball during the first half against Jamaica at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
- Mexico and Venezuela clash on Wednesday, June 26, with top spot in Group B on the line at the 2024 Copa America
- Venezuela hasn’t beaten Mexico since 1982, going 0-3-9 in the last 42 years
- See the Mexico vs Venezuela predictions, best bets, and odds for Wednesday’s match at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA
Top spot in Group B and a berth in the quarterfinals are virtually assured if either Mexico (1-0-0) or Venezuela (1-0-0) are able to pick up the full three points on Wednesday night when the teams meet at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, at 6:00 pm PT/9:00 pm ET.
Mexico has long dominated the head-to-head matchup with Venezuela – 14-4-2 all-time and 6-3-0 since the year 2000 – but this iteration sees a fairly strong Venezuelan side meeting a Mexican squad that’s put in some truly dismal performances recently. As such, the Mexico vs Venezuela odds are fairly narrow. At bet365, the three-way moneyline odds list Mexico as a +112 favorite, Venezuela at +284 to win, and the draw at +244.
Mexico vs Venezuela Predictions
- Under 2.5 goals (-160) at FanDuel
- Venezuela +0.5 (-143) at bet365
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 14-4 (+12.14 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
After two horrendous defensive performances against Uruguay (4-0 loss) and Brazil (3-2 loss) on US soil in the week prior to the Copa, Mexico earned a much needed clean-sheet victory over Jamaica (1-0) in their tournament-opener. But it wasn’t without close calls. Jamaica briefly took the lead in the 50th minute but Michail Antonio’s go-ahead goal was disallowed by VAR due to offside. Monterrey defender Gerardo Arteaga finally put El Tri in front in the 69th minute and keeper Julio Gonzalez made four saves for the shutout.
Mexico deserved the win, overall, generating 1.15 xGF to Jamaica’s 0.53, but it was still far from a convincing performance for the world’s #14-ranked team against #53 Jamaica, a team they were -220 favorites to defeat.
Making matters worse, they lost West Ham midfielder Edson Alvarez for the remainder of the tournament to a hamstring injury. Alvarez is Mexico’s second-highest-priced player on the transfer market after Feyenoord striker Santiago Gimenez.
Venezuela, meanwhile, is coming off a strange 2-1 victory over Ecuador. Despite Ecuador’s main goal-scoring threat Enner Valencia being shown a red card early in the first half, the Venezuelans still found themselves trailing 1-0 at the half. But a blistering second-half performance – including goals from Jhonder Cadiz (64′) and Eduard Bello (74′) – propelled Venezuela to a 2-1 victory.
Venezuela currently sits an inspired fourth in CONMEBOL’s 2026 World Cup qualifying after six matchdays, with a 2-3-1 record and +3 goal differential (6 GF, 3 GA). They managed a 1-1 away draw with Brazil on October 12 in one of the greatest results in team history. Their wins both game at home over Chile (3-0) and Paraguay (1-0), while they also drew with Peru (1-1 away) and Ecuador (0-0) after starting their qualifying campaign with a respectable 1-0 setback at Colombia, the 12th-ranked team in the world.
Mexico and the USA are currently the joint fifth-favorite in the 2024 Copa America odds, priced at +1250 on average to win the tournament, compared to Venezuela at +8050. But I expect the defensively-stout Venezuelans to pick up at least a point on Wednesday.
Mexico vs Venezuela Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico | +112 | Over 2.5 (+130) |
| Venezuela | +284 | Under 2.5 (-163) |
| Draw | +244 | N/A |
Odds as of June 26 at bet365. Claim a bet365 promo code to wager on Mexico vs Venezuela on Wednesday night at the Copa America.
The odds in the table are from bet365 but there is considerable variation in the prices at different sportsbooks. The best odds for a Mexico victory are at DraftKings, where El Tri are +120 to get the full three points. Bet365 has the best price on both a Venezuelan victory and the draw.
Bettors looking to wager on under 2.5 goals can get it at -160 at both Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel, while the longest odds on over 2.5 are at FanDuel (+134).
This isn’t one of my picks, but the best price on a 0-0 draw (a distinct possibility almost anytime this Venezuelan team is involved) is also at FanDuel (+750).
Mexico vs Venezuela Projected Lineups
| Mexico | Venezuela |
|---|---|
| Julio Gonzalez (GK) | Rafael Romo (GK) |
| Gerardo Arteaga (LB) | Miguel Navarro (LB) |
| Johan Vasquez (CB) | Yordan Osorio (CB) |
| Cesar Montes (CB) | Nahuel Ferraresi (CB) |
| Jorge Sanchez (RB) | Alexander Gonzalez (RB) |
| Luis Chavez (LMF) | Jose Martinez (LMF) |
| Luis Romo (RMF) | Yangel Herrera (CMF) |
| Julian Quinones (LW) | Cristian Casseres (RMF) |
| Uriel Antuna (RW) | Darwin Machis (LW) |
| Orbelin Pineda (SS) | Yeferson Soteldo (RW) |
| Santiago Gimenez (STR) | Salomon Rondon (STR) |
With Alvarez out, Monterrey midfielder Luis Romo figures to slot into his position in the starting 11.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.